KFL@MC.LCS.MIT.EDU ("Keith F. Lynch") (03/02/86)
Supernovas are very rare events. It is estimated that they happen no more than once per century in a galaxy our size. That is about ten to the eleventh stars. So any given star (such as Sirius) only has about a one in ten to the thirteenth chance of going supernova in any given year. Our galaxy has a volume of about ten to the fourteenth cubic lightyears. So the supernova density is about ten to the minus 16th supernovas per cubic light year per year. We can expect one every 2 thousand years within 10,000 lighyears, one every 2 million years within 1000 lightyears, one every 2 billion years within 100 lightyears, and one every 2 trillion years within ten lightyears. None of these except the last would hurt us. There are plenty of good reasons for going into space, but supernovas aren't one of them. Lets try to stick to realistic reasons if we are going to preach to the not yet converted. ...Keith