mcgregor@hpsmtc1.HP.COM (Scott McGregor) (03/20/90)
Here is some additional material on prescient agents from my papers in progress. I apologize for the missing figures that are referred to. Observations on Present Day Systems The author led a team at Hewlett-Packard which developed an early prototype prescient computing system. The original impetus for the work started with trying to find alternative ways of enhancing the usability of computers for developing commercial software. But we quickly observed that many of the problems that distracted software developers were common to many frequent computer users, and this led to a study of computer usage patterns and error patterns. Out of this study came our plan to address these problems through the creation of a prescient computing system. We discovered evidence that current systems are confusing for users because they require the user to remember and specify details that are peripheral to their tasks. We collected a large sample of Unix shell history files from computer users throughout HP and found that 25- 66% of users' commands are just to navigate around and search for related artifacts in the file system. (See Figure 1). A primary cause of this problem is that most of today's computer systems do not pay attention to the context in which a person is working, and in fact often require the user to remember how work contexts are instantiated in the current file system. The user must then continually manage any translations or navigation implied by this particular mapping. The measures of overhead given here are indicative of the magnitude of this effort that is necessary just to manage the user's intended work tasks. This use (and overload) of the user's memory to manage details of the task that are not directly goal related also seems to give rise to the observed classes of errors. Theory of Prescience Having recognized some of the cognitive aspects of current systems that were not well matched to the user's capabilities and tasks, we sought to develop a model for how computer systems might further facilitate personal work and collaboration with work partners. We found that having a model of how a human agent facilitates such work was helpful for discussing how our computer agents could facilitate such work as well. One useful metaphor for the sort of agent we envisioned was that of an administrative assistant, and in particular we use as such an example, the character of Radar O'Reilley, the company clerk in the movie and TV show M*A*S*H. Radar O'Reilley We use the image of the character Radar O'Reilley as an example of how changes to the user interface can support management of complexity and interaction with others. We frequently saw Radar O'Reilley standing outside the door to his colonel's office with a handful of file folders. (See figure 2). His colonel would open the door and be startled to see Radar there ready with a set of file folders. The colonel would barely get out one or two words out when Radar was already handing him the one file he needed and suggesting other files he might want to consult. Other times weUd see Radar finding out what was going on elsewhere in Korea by talking on the phone with Sparky the Korea theatre-wide radio telephone operator. Later we might see Radar telling everyone to get ready for incoming wounded just before anyone else detected the sounds of approaching helicopters. On the TV show, Radar was later replaced by Max Klinger, who was never able to find things in the files and often suggested that officers rummage through the file room themselves to find things. Now, let us look at a theory for how computer agents can facilitate users' work, and then we will return to our Radar analogy and look at how computer agents can offer some of the benefits of a Radar O'Reilley. Domesticating the Computer In order to analyze this metaphor for prescient facilitation, we need a model for the cognitive processes being facilitated. We adopted a three part model from Joel Birnbaum which he calls Domesticating the Computer. Birnbaum has described three capabilities that computers must give to humans for computers to become domesticated: % Augment Human Memory. % Improve Human Communication. % Enhance Human Reasoning Ability. Let's try to see how these might map to the kinds of services that Radar provides. Radar augments memory by remembering where all the files are kept and having them ready when his superior needs them. His commander doesn't need to remember their name or storage location. Radar improves communication through his keeping in touch with Sparky and the other clerks around Korea. He's able to find out things that will help his superior that others forgot to mention. He also knows about other people who have interests that interact with others in the unit, he is th's able to facilitate bartering and other forms of exchange of value that begin with communication. Lastly, because he helps manage data and mediate communication with others, he is able to enhance reasoning of his superiors by allowing them to stay task focussed, while he manages the communications and data storage details, furthermore he is able to help them anticipate outside changes (such as incoming wounded) which will alter their current work tasks. It is important to notice that Radar gains this knowledge of what information his commander will need next, just by watching him do his work. Radar has realized that when his commander is working on something he is likely to also need files that are related. He is able to learn to anticipate which files are related to current work based on what files were used together before. He uses that information to pre-fetch the handful of files. Then a one or two word cue is sufficient for him to choose just one from the handful. Radar is also able to anticipate what work will require interaction with others by noting where it came from, who it might be shared with, etc. But he does this unobtrusively without having to ask all the time or having to be told. How different from most computer systems today! Media Lab, Domesticating the Computer, Prescience: a concordance It is illustrative to combine the notions from Joel Birnbaum's Domesticating the Computer with models of how those capabilities might be delivered. In 1978, Nicholas Negroponte created a figure that illustrated his prediction that Broadcast/Telecommunications, Publishing and Computer industries would become a single combined industry by 2000. In figure 3, I've also mapped Joel Birnbaum's capabilities on the same kind of diagram. It is easy to see the parallels between the two models when you recognize that published Figure 3 documents are a major way of augmenting human memory. The Telecommunication and Broadcasting industries have been our primary means for improving human communication. Computers, through programs as diverse as linear programs and VLSI simulators, have been automating tasks and enhancing our reasoning. It is also illustrative to map these two disciplines within the computer industry. Here we see that databases provide a place to store information akin to publishing, while networking software supports communications. User Agents provide technology to enhance reasoning. ----------------- Send comments to Scott McGregor mcgregor@limbo.intuitive.com