criesdif@mtxinu.COM (10/10/89)
/* Written 2:59 pm Oct 9, 1989 by criesdif in ni:ni.centam-elect */
/* ---------- "Nica: Tale of Two Polls" ---------- */
A TALE OF TWO POLLS
(ni.centam-elect 206 lines)
From the October issue of "Nicaragua Through Our Eyes",
the publication of the Committee of US Citizens Living In
Nicaragua. By Derek Coursen.
******************
As Nicaragua's February 1990 elections approach, public
opinion becomes increasingly important to all of the
contending political forces. In recent months, a number of
institutions have done polls throughout the country's urban
areas, with sharply different results. The most striking
contrast is between a poll done by the independent
Nicaraguan Institute of Public Opinion (INOP), and one
commissioned by the opposition daily "La Prensa."
A look at the two polls' methodology and presentation
reveals great disparities in their professional standards.
The poll commissioned by "La Prensa" seems to be have been
designed more to shape than to measure public opinion. Given
that much of the Nicaraguan opposition has adopted the
strategy of claiming that they could lose only by fraud, the
"La Prensa" poll may well be meant to help delegitimize the
elections in the probable event of a Sandinista victory. A
survey of recent poll findings will lend credence to this
idea.
Sandinistas Sagging?
"La Prensa" published the results of its poll with
banner headlines in the editions of July 14-18. The timing
was not accidental. Billing the poll as "an evaluation of
the Nicaraguan people's thinking after ten years of
Sandinismo," the newspaper presented the survey as a popular
referendum, judging the Nicaraguan Revolution on its tenth
anniversary.
Some of "La Prensa"'s findings were frankly astounding.
Asked an open question about what candidate they most
favored for president, 13% chose Daniel Ortega while 12.9
opted for the paper's publisher, Violeta Barrios de
Chamorro. (Other FSLN and opposition figures received much
smaller percentages.) When a closed question was asked,
positing a direct electoral contest between the two,
Chamorro won by 46% to Ortega's 26%! Asked what was the best
thing the Sandinistas had done over ten years, 47% said
"nothing," while 20% mentioned education and 10% named
agrarian reform. Over half of respondents said they approved
of "humanitarian" (i.e., non-military) aid to the contras.
Other questions in the survey dealt with the overall
problems that Nicaragua faces - the quality of services,
confidence in government institutions, perceptions of the
media, the future of Central America, the nature of the
upcoming elections, and the popularity of various political
figures and forces. On all of these, the FSLN fared badly
when compared with the opposition. Asked to give a favorable
or unfavorable rating, 48% thought well of the United
Nicaraguan Opposition (UNO), compared to 30% who favored the
FSLN. Commented "La Prensa", "the 30% who applaud the FSLN
is a percentage maintained throughout the poll, as a
demonstration of the minority that favors Sandinismo.
Putting it another way, slightly fewer than one out of three
Nicaraguans supports Sandinismo. The rest would reject it in
any election."
Questions Arise
"La Prensa" made the most of its poll, releasing it in
small doses with great fanfare over the course of several
days. Some of the results were also published in "La Nacion"
(San Jose, Costa Rica) and "El Nuevo Herald" (Miami). In
fact, the three papers had cosponsored the survey,
commissioning it with the Costa Rican polling firm of Borge
y Asociados, which in the past has done polls for Oscar
Arias' presidential campaign and for the National Party in
Honduras. But although Borge is widely acknowledged to be a
reputable company, some of the poll's results were scarcely
believable.
There had been only four important polling efforts in
Nicaragua prior to the "La Prensa" poll. Two, in December
1988 and April 1989, were commissioned by the Manolo Morales
Foundation, which is linked to the Popular Social Christian
Party (PPSC) and opposition weekly "La Cronica". (These two
polls were actually carried out by Borge also, though the
fact was not made public at the time.) The other two polls,
in June 1988 and May 1989, were the work of INOP. Though the
two institutions' findings were different, they were not
unreasonably so. The results of the "La Prensa" poll, on the
other hand, diverged wildly from these previous efforts.
Questions soon began to arise regarding the poll's
reliability. "Borge is a serious enterprise, and I respect
their work," commented Cirilo Otero of INOP. "I wouldn't
dare to think that the poll was manipulated. Still, there
are some incomprehensible things here. How could Violeta
Chamorro have a following equal to Ortega's, at 12.9% and
13%? It just can't be. People see Ortega practically every
day on television; Chamorro doesn't have nearly that much
public exposure. It's particularly troubling that "La
Prensa" has failed to publish its methodology. That's a
breach of international polling standards."
A Demonstrable Bias
Evaluation of the "La Prensa" poll has been made
difficult by the newspaper's refusal to release precise
question wording and sample techniques. However, it's
possible to get some idea of the poll's tenor from the
incomplete data that have been published. In a study of the
survey, Bill Bollinger of the Interamerican Research Center
raises serious doubts about the poll's objectivity.
Much of Bollinger's criticism is directed at the
wording of questions. "In every case," he writes, "question
bias operated against the Sandinistas." In many cases, the
poll reduces complex political issues to a choice between
accepting or rejecting crude and polemical slogans. For
example, respondents were asked to agree or disagree with
such statements as, "In Nicaragua the workers and peasants
are in power." The statement is unnecessarily doctrinaire; a
better and more contextual question would have been to ask
whether workers and peasants have more power now than before
the revolution. Other questions were biased by unstated
assumptions. People were asked which political force could
best end military conscription; that the draft should be
ended was implicit in the question.
Furthermore, the poll failed to ask about a number of
important areas - contra attacks, the US, and the Esquipulas
peace process - on which the FSLN might have received good
marks. Some of the scholars consulted about the poll
suggested that the order of the questions might have been an
extra prejudicial factor, while others thought that the
poll's bias was so obvious that respondents would guess
which side the pollsters were on. Bollinger notes that
Victor Borge, the sociologist whose firm carried out the
poll, has disclaimed authorship of the questions: "He said
his role was to 'order the questions' submitted by the
client and to 'make a few suggestions.'"
positingadirect electoralcontestbetweenthe two,
difference between the "La Prensa" poll and the other recent
surveys, there may also have been sampling error. The
newspaper's unethical refusal to reveal its sampling
technique makes it impossible to verify the poll's accuracy
on this score as well.
Another View
While the "La Prensa" poll gives the impression of a
populace practically united in its rejection of the
Sandinista government, a poll carried out by INOP July 28-30
on the theme of "Elections and Democracy in Nicaragua,"
presents a starkly contrasting view.
An open question in the INOP poll reads as follows:
"Could you tell us for which political party would you vote
for the Presidency of the Republic?" In response, 37% chose
the FSLN, while only 16% named one of a variety of
opposition groupings. Of the rest, 19% had decided not to
vote, while 28% didn't know or had no response.
INOP also asked, "Would you vote for a candidate of the
UNO in the next elections?" (This question did not refer to
any specific office.) A 53% majority said no, 33% said yes,
and 14% didn't know or had no response. This was followed by
the question: "Would you vote for candidates of the armed
resistance in the next elections?" An overwhelming 79% said
no to the contra, while 8% said yes, 12% didn't know or had
no response, and 1% offered some other answer.
Unlike "La Prensa", INOP has published a complete and
exact list of its questions, along with a full explanation
of sampling techniques used. The phrasing of INOP's
questions is carefully neutral. Because INOP's work is not
subordinated to any partisan position, it has received
little attention in the daily press.
"Our polls have not been well accepted by either side,"
remarks Cirilo Otero. "Leaders of the FSLN accuse us of
doing polls to be used against the government, while the
right considers us pro-Sandinista. When we finished our June
1988 poll, we called a press conference. Everyone came -
"Barricada", "El Nuevo Diario", and "La Prensa" - but none
of them printed any mention of our poll! The dailies
wouldn't touch our May 1989 survey either. Finally "La
Cronica" published parts of it. We have this problem because
we're not close to any party. We're social scientists, not
propagandists."
Ulterior Motives
In short, the INOP poll verifies statistically what
most political observers in Nicaragua already knew. The
counterrevolution, after waging war for eight years, has
achieved only massive repudiation. The civic opposition,
weak and still divided, has failed so far to forge a strong
electoral base. And though the FSLN has suffered some
erosion in its popular support through the years, it remains
the political option of a clear plurality of Nicaraguans.
The Nicaraguan elections are shaping up to be the most
closely monitored vote in human history. For the first time
ever, the United Nations will observe the internal elections
of a sovereign state. The OAS will also send a delegation,
and dozens of other observer groups will be present. The
Nicaraguan government has invited these groups in order to
ensure international recognition of the elections'
legitimacy.
Far right-wing forces such as "La Prensa" seem to be
preparing evidence - no matter how shoddy - that will allow
them to scream fraud in the likely event of their defeat. In
this context, the "La Prensa" poll is more a weapon for the
opposition than it is a measurement of the public opinion of
Nicaraguans.
---
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