[net.followup] Lockport Blast: safety of oil vs nuclear power

neal@druxv.UUCP (07/25/84)

What amazes me is that these sorts of things happen all the time
(floods, coal mining accidents, oil spills, black lung, acid rain,
the future danger of carbon-dioxide-induced climate changes, etc.), but the
public still believes that hydro power, coal power, and oil power are safer
than nuclear power!  Now don't get me wrong: I believe that nuclear
power is worse than almost any other power source based on many other
arguments (waste disposal, expense, overly complicated, etc),
but the fact is that many more people die per megawatt of fossil fuel
power than nuclear power.
Reference: a book, "The health hazards of NOT going nuclear" by a professor
at U. Colorado (sorry, forgot his name).
-Neal McBurnett, ihnp4!druny!neal, 303-538-4852

henry@utzoo.UUCP (Henry Spencer) (07/28/84)

> Nuclear power is (usually) just slower about its destructive work
> than the fossil fuels.  Nuclear waste will leach into the environment
> for the next quarter million years.

Most nuclear waste, with the plutonium removed (if for no other reason than
it being too valuable to throw away) is no more radioactive than natural
uranium ore within a few centuries.  There are impossibly huge amounts of
natural uranium ore in the Earth's crust already; if stuff at that level
of activity is dangerous, we've had it.  Also, please note that the wastes
associated with some other means of power generation, such as coal, are
dangerous chemical poisons -- they have no halflife and will be around
*forever*.

> As for "The Health Hazards of Not Going Nuclear", I haven't read it.

You should.  It's very interesting, particularly when Petr Beckmann
(the author) starts comparing the statements of the anti-nuclear folks
with the facts.  There is no doubt that many of the anti-nuclear people
are sincere, but some of them aren't, and there are some outrageous lies
masquerading as facts.

> But I'll bet nuclear is put against large coal and oil plants instead
> of the real winners, decentralized solar, biogas, and natural gas.

Nuclear is put against everything in Beckmann's comparisons.  All forms
of power, bar none, have health hazards.  (Including decentralized solar.
After car accidents, the biggest cause of accidental death in North
America is accidental falls.  Solar systems will often be on rooftops.)
Industrial accidents occur in all forms of industry, hence in all forms
of power generation.  Nuclear generally wins simply because it is so
concentrated -- there is less volume of hazardous material, hence less
handling and less opportunity for accident and injury.

> Read "Soft Energy Paths" and other works by Amory Lovins for further
> info.

But check his claims before taking them as facts.  Some are not.
-- 
				"We almost lost Lockport!"
				Henry Spencer @ U of Toronto Zoology
				{allegra,ihnp4,linus,decvax}!utzoo!henry

phil@amd.UUCP (Phil Ngai) (07/28/84)

I recall that the scenerio of a liquified natural gas tanker
exploding in Boston harbor would be about equivalent to a nuke going off.

Well, at least the ashes wouldn't be radioactive.

Lots of joules in one of those things.
-- 
 "amd70" is dead! long live "amd"!
 Phil Ngai (408) 982-6554
 UUCPnet: {ucbvax,decwrl,ihnp4,allegra,intelca}!amd!phil
 ARPAnet: amd!phil@decwrl.ARPA

dgary@ecsvax.UUCP (07/31/84)

< ... quoting ...>

>From: mjk@tty3b.UUCP (Mike Kelly) Mon Jul 30 11:19:09 1984
>Come on, Henry, everyone should know by now that ALL radiation is dangerous.
>There is no such thing as a "safe level"; there is only a officially
>approved "acceptable level".  "Acceptable" to whom is never talked about.

I guess it's worth noting that light is electromagnetic radiation, so perhaps
I should move into a cave somewhere ... :-)  In any event, a number of
studies suggest there perhaps ARE safe levels of ionizing radiation.  For
instance, mortality and morbidity in China is actually lower in some
areas with higher than normal background radiation.  There doesn't seem
to be any clear relation in the US or Europe between low-level radiation
and cancer, birth defects, and so on; studies have been inconclusive.
I am very leery of going by what "everybody knows" because it often
turns out that "everybody knows" that we'd better keep commie pinkos
out of this country and the dinosaurs are gone because they turned a
blind eye to the threat of pornography.

Also, I believe questions like "acceptable for whom" have been discussed
quite a bit.  I have certainly seen a lot of that go by in the scientific
press, even though I get none of the specialist journals in the health
physics field.  In any event, I find it hard to believe that everyone in
favor of nuclear power is a scoundrel or a fool; I have met too many
distinguished scientists of both camps to believe that the issue is as simply
cut and dried as some of the discussion on this net has implied.

>I can't believe this.  This man is comparing "a few centuries" worth of
>high-level radioactive waste with a fall from a rooftop.  This is incredible.

The point is that if we can keep these wastes out of the environment for
just a few centuries (not exactly an impossible dream), then EVEN IF THEY
LATER leak out we are no worse off than we are already.  In fact, it
could be argued that if we manage to keep the wastes out of the environment
for longer than that (which we almost certainly can), we are in fact
LOWERING the amount of radiation in the environment, if only by a little.

As I have said before, it is a pity these questions become so emotional
and politicised, with people swearing there is no way you can convince
them that they are mistaken.

D Gary Grady
Duke University Computation Center, Durham, NC  27706
(919) 684-4146
USENET:  {decvax,ihnp4,akgua,etc.}!mcnc!ecsvax!dgary

mark@teltone.UUCP (Mark McWiggins) (08/01/84)

<Mutants for Nuclear Power "-;>

Nuclear power is (usually) just slower about its destructive work
than the fossil fuels.  Nuclear waste will leach into the environment
for the next quarter million years.

As for "The Health Hazards of Not Going Nuclear", I haven't read it.
But I'll bet nuclear is put against large coal and oil plants instead
of the real winners, decentralized solar, biogas, and natural gas.

Read "Soft Energy Paths" and other works by Amory Lovins for further
info.
-- 

....tektronix!uw-beaver!teltone!mark

al@ames.UUCP (Al Globus) (08/02/84)

One argument against nuclear power that is seldom brought up is defendability.
I believe this is because most anti-nuke folk don't know or think much about
military matters.  I'm an exception.

Nuclear power plants are sitting ducks, and taking one out - done 'properly'
can make entire regions unihabitable.  For example, a Scientific American
article some time ago pointed out that a single atomic bomb dropped on the
right nuclear power plant during normal wind conditions could contaminate
the ENTIRE RUHR INDUSTRIAL REGION for decades.  A nuke isn't necessary to
take out a reactor, as the Israeli's proved in Iraq.  What's more, if you
get the coolant input pipes you can cause a melt down without too much
trouble.  Presto chango, no one can live nearby for years, if not centuries.

Actually, all centralized power plants have defense problems because of
the major disruptions caused when they are destroyed.  Nuclear plants 
compound the problem since the radioactive fuel can be used as a weapon.

ron@brl-tgr.ARPA (Ron Natalie <ron>) (08/02/84)

...and if we send all the nuclear waste to the moon, we might get a chain
reaction that causes the moon to blast off and go wandering around space.
Mission: Impossible, no Space 1999.

-Ron  :-)

ignatz@ihuxx.UUCP (Dave Ihnat, Chicago, IL) (08/03/84)

	...
	But I'll bet nuclear is put against large coal and oil plants instead
	of the real winners, decentralized solar, biogas, and natural gas.
	...

Hmmm.  Let me know how to power a blast furnace from decentralized solar.

Frankly, the problem is that heavy industry needs *large* quantities of
high-grade energy.  None of the alternate sources can provide that.
And if we're going to pull the rest of the planet above subsistence level 
living, then we need heavy industry.  (I *firmly* refuse to lower my
lifestyle, so the only alternative is to raise everyone else's.)

Unfortunately, the same problem applies to central urban areas--you
have to find some place to put those bleedin' collectors, and covering
2/3 of Manhattan or the Chicago Loop isn't going to work.

The extremely large biomass converters also have their pollution problems;
and that gas has to be converted to electricity at some point, to be
generally usable.  And natural gas, while clean and relatively
abundant, falls in the same category as petroleum: it's a finite
resource.

Everyone has their own axe to grind, and I'll agree that nuclear
power, as implemented by the powers that be, is far from a desirable
legacy to our kids.  (At least WE put containments around the
beasts--the Soviets don't believe in them!!)  But I think it's high
time that all of us who love our home (i.e., this amazing planet we
have the luck to live on) agree that the important thing is to stop
fouling our own nest.  Would you put your trash incinerator in the
living room?  Then why have a blast furnace just a few miles away from
residential homes?  To do this sanely, we have to get out of our
closed ecosystem.  How?  (You knew it had to come to this.)

Leave the planet.  Get the stinky, messy, sloppy stuff out where you
can REALLY use solar, on a large scale.  Get it where nuclear power
plants are an intelligent and elegant solution.  Get out where there
are plentiful raw materials.  GO ORBITAL.

I won't go on a tirade justifying this stance here; it belongs in
net.space.  (Of course, there, it's the converted preaching to the
converted...:-))  But I hope that enough people take enough time out
from laughing at this "Sci-Fi" idea to examine the economics,
engineering, and logistics long enough to think...

	Dave "I'd take a job as janitor on the Shuttle" Ihnat
	ihuxx!ignatz

henry@utzoo.UUCP (Henry Spencer) (08/03/84)

> Nuclear power plants are sitting ducks, and taking one out - done 'properly'
> can make entire regions unihabitable.  For example, a Scientific American
> article some time ago pointed out that a single atomic bomb dropped on the
> right nuclear power plant during normal wind conditions could contaminate
> the ENTIRE RUHR INDUSTRIAL REGION for decades.

Later commentary on that article pointed out that a nuclear power plant
isn't exactly a "sitting duck":  Western nuclear plants (as opposed to
the Soviet ones) are probably the toughest structures ever built by man.
They are built to shrug off direct hits by crashing airliners, after all.
Hitting one of them with a missile would need silo-killing accuracy, and
missiles with silo-killing accuracy will have more important targets in
a war.  Bombers are a different matter, but we have defences against them
(or we're supposed to...).

Splattering a nuclear plant would also be a rather stupid thing to do.
Making a large and immensely valuable industrial area uninhabitable for
years is the sort of mistake that generals get shot for.  Tactical nuclear
weapons are generally designed for *minimum* fallout for just this reason.
(Strategic weapons don't figure in this because use of them will mean a
situation sufficiently bad that the reactors will be only a minor worry.)
I would consider it very surprising to find the Soviets planning to blast
reactors (with nuclear or non-nuclear weapons) in anything short of dire
extremity.  Much more likely would be a non-nuclear strike against the
generators or the switching gear, with intact survival of the containment
shell an explicit *objective* of the mission.

> ....................................................  What's more, if you
> get the coolant input pipes you can cause a melt down without too much
> trouble.  Presto chango, no one can live nearby for years, if not centuries.

The most likely result of a meltdown, actually, is a hell of a mess within
the reactor building, and perhaps immediately underneath it, but not much
of a problem outside.  Why do you think those nice thick containment walls
are there?

> Actually, all centralized power plants have defense problems because of
> the major disruptions caused when they are destroyed.

No argument.  But this applies to many things in an industrial civilization,
not just power plants.

> Nuclear plants 
> compound the problem since the radioactive fuel can be used as a weapon.

Only if you've got a nuclear weapon, or something close, to liberate it
with.  There are other things that would also make an awful mess which
are *not* so well protected.  A few years ago, just west of where I sit
typing this, an entire city was evacuated for several days when some
chlorine tank cars were involved in a derailment accident.  And there is
alleged to be at least one hydroelectric dam in California where a major
dam failure might kill a quarter of a million people.  You don't need to
invoke nuclear methods to achieve mass murder.
-- 
				Henry Spencer @ U of Toronto Zoology
				{allegra,ihnp4,linus,decvax}!utzoo!henry

ignatz@ihuxx.UUCP (Dave Ihnat, Chicago, IL) (08/04/84)

Gosh, Mike, if you could have said anything more damaging to your
stance, I don't know what it is:

"...you will never convince me we need nuclear power."

Closed-minded, or what?  Say things like that, and no one will listen
to what you say, either.

Suppose I informed you that a means DOES exist to get rid of those
nasty nuclear wastes?  Is, and has been feasible, and results in
a waste product with a half-life measured in 10s of years, not 10000s.

A friend of mine is an editor at Nuclear News.  (For those not in the
know, this is the publication of the American Nuclear Society; but
it's not always in good odor with the industry, because of some
misguided notion that it should report facts, instead of being an
industry propaganda sheet.  Believe me, Mike would not espouse some
position to make ANS happy.)  He told me, a couple of years ago, that
the means to get rid of the worst of the nasty long-lived radioactives
in the waste fuel has been tested.  It involves building high-energy
accelerators to, essentially, transmute the materials and hasten
their decay.  The problem is that you're talking about an industrial
accelerator, not a scientific test tool.  To build ones big enough,
reliable enough, and safe enough to process power-plant waste, it
would take a massive, multi-megabuck building program RIGHT NOW to
process this country's wastes by 2000.

It isn't going to happen, for a lot of reasons.  Mostly political.
(Incidentally, those who question this technique, or want more
info--let me know, via mail; if I get enough requests, I'll ask Mike
to write a brief USENET article expressing the details and
considerations.)

The question is not whether we need nuclear power.  The question is:
We need intense power sources for our industrial lifestyle.  Where do
we get them, and where do we want to use them? (Note that I am NOT
willing to 'conserve', if by conserve you mean back off to an
energy-starved economy.  High-tech is the only way we're going to
support this planet, and high-tech needs abundant energy.)

		Dave Ihnat
		ihuxx!ignatz

rbg@cbosgd.UUCP (Richard Goldschmidt) (08/04/84)

>the means to get rid of the worst of the nasty long-lived radioactives
>in the waste fuel has been tested.  It involves building high-energy
>accelerators to, essentially, transmute the materials and hasten
>their decay.  The problem is that you're talking about an industrial
>accelerator, not a scientific test tool.  To build ones big enough,
>reliable enough, and safe enough to process power-plant waste, it
>would take a massive, multi-megabuck building program RIGHT NOW to
>process this country's wastes by 2000.
>Dave Ihnat	ihuxx!ignatz

There is another alternative way of eliminating nuclear wastes:  lift them off
the planet into space, and aim them for the sun.  It is imperative to package
them in such a way that the container will withstand any kind of launch 
failure and still be recoverable, but the technology exists now, without a
major building program or long delay.  As the costs of lifting into orbit
goes down, this may well be feasible for many kinds of highly toxic wastes.

Rich Goldschmidt  

UUCP:  {ucbvax|ihnp4|decvax|allegra}!cbosgd!rbg
ARPA:  cbosgd!rbg@Berkeley.ARPA