criesdif@cdp.uucp (10/28/89)
NICARAGUA: POLL GIVES FSLN THE LEAD
(ni.centam-elect 174 lines)
THE CENTRAL AMERICAN UNIVERSITY (UCA)
AN OPINION POLL ON VOTER PREFERENCES IN NICARAGUA
CONDUCTED FROM OCTOBER 2-7, 1989
RELEASED ON OCTOBER 24, 1989
MANAGUA, NICARAGUA
INTRODUCTION
The following information is a summary of the principal
results of a poll on "Trends among Eligible Voters from the
1990 Elections in Nicaragua" conducted by the Nicaraguan
firm ECO (an Opinion Research and Counsulting firm) for the
Institute for Research, Academic Development and Popular
Education of the Central American University (UCA) in
Managua, Nicaragua.
METHODOLOGY
The Poll was conducte simultaneously in 31
municipalities in the Pacific, North and Central Regions of
the country during the period of october 2-7, 1989.
The collection of data was based on interviews of
persons 16 years of age or older, in previously selected
homes.
The sample was bases on visits to 4,397 individual
homes, with interviews conducted in 4,114 homes. There was a
6.4 percent of interviews denied or invalid questionaires.
The design and selection of the sample was done in
accordance with quotas determined by sex, age and geographic
regions (using existing demographic information). The houses
were chosen at random by computer on the basis of their
location. In the countrusyde a cartographic sampling
framework was employed.
The margin of error is estimated at 2 percent on a
national average.
Filed work was carried out by three regional
coordinators, nine supervisores and 43 interviewers, the
last group with ample experience in conducting polls.
SAMPLING
In accordance with the variables of sex, age and
geographic distribution, the sample included the following:
SEX MEN 45.2% WOMEN 54.8%
AGE GROUPS
16-20 years of age 20.2%
21-25 years of age 17.5%
26-35 years of age 26.3%
36-50 years of age 26.3%
51 or over 15.3%
REGIONS
Region I 11.1%
Region II 16.5%
Region III 30.8%
Region IV 18.4%
Region V 9.5%
Region VI 13.7%
RESULTS OF THE POLL REGARDING VOTER PREFERENCES
There is a high degree of voter confidence in the
electoral process.
. The Party with the largest number of votes is the
Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN).
. The number of undecided voters remains high.
. The credibility of the opposition is low.
. The majority of persons interviewed have a favorable
opinion of the current government.
PEOPLE WHO INTEND TO VOTE
A high percentage of persons interviewed (78.4%) stated
their intention to vote. This is consistent with the 66.3%
rate of persons who agree that the Government is interested
in carry out clean elections.
Are you going to vote in 1990?
Yes 78.4%
No 9.4%
Dont know 10.6%
No response 1.7%
VOTER PREFERENCES
The results of this survey show that among decided
voters, 36.5% of the persons interviewed would vote for the
Sandinista Front, while 18.1% intend to voter for UNO (the
National Opposition Union). That is to say, there is a 2-1
voter preference favoring the ruling Party. The remaining
opposition parties combined received 2.0%.
What Party candidates do you intend to vote for President
and Vice President in fabruary of 1990?
FSLN (Sandinista National Liberation Front) 36.5%
UNO (National Opposition Union) 18.1%
PSC (Social Christian Party) 0.8%
PCD (Democratic Conservative Party) 0.4%
PUCA (Central American Unionist Party) 0.3%
MAP (Popular Action Movement) 0.3%
PLIUN (Liberal-Party of National Unity) 0.2%
PRT (Revolutionary Worker's Party) 0
MUR (Movement for Revolutionary Unity) 0
Don't know 28.1%
No response 13.7%
The 28.1% that answered still undecided on who they would
vote for, gave the following explanations: "its still too
early", "I don't know what each party stands for", "I don't
know who the candidates are", "I don't know the different
parties".
THE CREDIBILITY OF THE OPPOSITION
A high percentage of the persons interviewed (44.2%) do not
believe the opposition is capable of resolving the problems
facing the country, while 21.4% said they are and 28.1% said
they did not know it the opposition was capable of solving
the country's problems.
THE IMAGE OF THE GOVERNMENT
The majority of the population interviewed had a favorable
image of the Government, giving it the following ratings:
"seeks peace" (69.0%), "seeks a better future for
Nicaraguans" (55.1%), "guarantees freedom and democracy"
(51.5%), "defends the interests of the people" (51.2%), "has
brought improvements to the country" (50.7%).
WE WANT TO KNOW WHAT YOU THINK ABOUT THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT.
TO DETERMINE THIS I WILL READ A LIST OF OPINIONS, INDICATE
WHICH STATEMENTS YOU AGREE TO AND WITH WHICH YOU DISAGREE.
1. THE GOVT HAS BROUGHT IMPROVEMENTS TO THE COUNTRY
AGREE: 50.7%; DISAGREE: 23.1%;
SOMETIMES: 15.3%; NO RESPONSE:10.5%.
2. SEEKS PEACE
AGREE: 69.0%; DISAGREE: 15.0%;
SOMETIMES: 5.9%; NO RESPONSE: 9.7%.
3. DEFENDS THE INTERESTS OF THE PEOPLE
AGREE: 51.2%; DISAGREE: 23.3%;
SOMETIMES: 12.1%; NO RESPONSE: 12.8%.
4. GUARANTEES FREEDOM AND DEMOCRACY
AGREE: 51.5%; DISAGREE: 23.7%;
SOMETIMES: 7.9%; NO RESPONSE: 16.4%.
5. SEEKS A BETTER FUTURE FOR NICARAGUANS
AGREE: 55.1%; DISAGREE: 24.0%;
SOMETIMES: 6.7%; NO RESPONSE: 13.5%.
6. IS INTERESTED IN CARRYING OUT CLEAN ELECTIONS
AGREE: 66.3%; DISAGREE: 12.6%;
SOMETIMES: 2.2%; NO RESPONSE: 18.2%.
7. ARE POOR ADMINISTRATORS
AGREE: 28.8%; DISAGREE: 40.6%;
SOMETIMES: 12.3%; NO RESPONSE: 17.7%.
8. IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DIFFICULT ECONOMIC SITUATION OF
THE COUNTRY
AGREE: 36.7%; DISAGREE: 39.6%;
SOMETIMES: 9.3%; NO RESPONSE: 13.8%.
9. IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WAR
AGREE: 20.7%; DISAGREE: 59.9%;
SOMETIMES: 4.3%; NO RESPONSE: 14.4%.
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