brad@looking.UUCP (Brad Templeton) (08/17/84)
All other questions about the validity of the SW defence plan aside, "5% get through and that's bad enough!" is not a valid criticism of the plan, for it ignores the history of nuclear buildup. MAD is not well named. The real term should be SANE (Safety by Absolute Nuclear Envelopment? 8-) ) The original philosophy of MAD was, "We've got bombs, they've got bombs. If we ever fight a nuclear exchange, we both lose. Thus let's not go to war." Now this used to be so plain that even a general could see it! In fact, it's this, compounded by the horrible demonstration at Hiroshima, that has kept the world clear of a major conflict for 40 years. (By major conflict I mean an actual all out war between leading powers) Now sadly, some generals got the idea (I don't know why) that if somebody had enough bombs that they could blow up all the other guy's bombs at once they would avoid retaliation. Of course when one general got this idea, everybody had to follow suit to make sure they had so many bombs and such good radar that nobody could destroy it all at once. And this has been the cause if the current arms race. Now stopping 95% of the incoming bombs doesn't have to be in any way intended to protect the NATO citizens. It's to protect the NATO bombs! A plan that stops 95% of incoming takes us back to the first stage which is, "You send your bombs at us, we won't get 'em all, but you won't get all of ours either, and we'll turn you into pork sausage with the ones we have left! So what the hell you got so many bombs for? They ain't worth a thing to you." At least this is what we hope would happen. Sadly, the other response might be, "Only 5% of our bombs make it, we need 20 times as many bombs." - but I think that would break the Soviet economy, and possibly even the NATO one. The worse thing would be a 100% effective defence. That would mean generals would say, "Let's Nuke 'em now while we can!", just like they did before the USSR got the bomb. Of course, they didn't do it then, but the USSR wasn't the same threat then. As long as the global situation remains two men sitting in a pool of Gasoline arguing over who has more matches, the world is safe. As soon as somebody figures they can but up a firebreak, then we're in for it. No matter where you go ... there you are. - Buckaroo Banzai -- Brad Templeton - Waterloo, Ontario (519) 884-7473