henry@utzoo.UUCP (Henry Spencer) (08/26/84)
There is one very (VERY) serious problem that would result if the US
unilaterally abandoned its nuclear weapons: what about its allies?
The European nations decided many years ago that the "nuclear shield"
was strong enough that they need not bother maintaining substantial
conventional forces to deter war. If the "shield" goes away, they
are left awfully exposed, and may feel impelled to do something about
it. Possibly something undesirable, like going nuclear.
Note that it doesn't matter whether they really *are* in serious danger
(although one can argue that they would be); the perception is enough.
Why is it so bad if some more European countries acquire their own
nuclear weapons? Well, for one thing, it would mean the total breakdown
of the Nonproliferation Treaty, with possibly-severe consequences in
other areas of the world. But far more seriously, it could mean nuclear
war in Europe almost at once...
The West Germans are non-nuclear, although in time of war they have access
to US nuclear weapons if the US approves. They are very exposed. They
unquestionably could have their own nuclear weapons within months, and
they probably would... It's not an accident that most US nuclear forces
in Europe are in Germany. Nor is it an accident that the Nuclear Non-
Proliferation Treaty was practically custom-written for West Germany.
Because nuclear weaponry in German hands is one of the few things that
would probably send Soviet tanks into Western Europe immediately. The
Soviets still remember nearly being destroyed by Germany a few decades
ago, and they are acutely aware that the Germans resent the division of
Germany and would like it re-unified. The Soviets consider Germany very
dangerous, and would almost certainly consider German nuclear weapons
as a disaster in the making -- ample grounds for pre-emptive strike.
Disarmament plans that ignore the fears (legitimate or not) of the more
exposed European nations must be avoided at all costs. The cure could
be almost as bad as the disease.
--
Henry Spencer @ U of Toronto Zoology
{allegra,ihnp4,linus,decvax}!utzoo!henry