[net.followup] Death of Ground Based Astronomy

eugene@ames.UUCP (Eugene Miya) (08/30/84)

[]

Hardly!

I am not sure how some people see ground based astronomy dying.  Space
telescopes, flying telescopes, and ground telescopes, complemented by
computers and other electronics will make more interesting astronomy.
If on the other hand, as you say, astronomers will be put out of work, maybe
I should go to work on a PhD in astronomy [I have a standing invitation
from a friend at UCSC/Lick, I decided to get out of astronomy in 6th
grade because I thought the World could only support about 800 astronomers,
I had to settle for the space program instead.]  Maybe this will get rid of
some dead wood.

The problem with all space telescopes, and the large facilities like
the VLA, Palomar, the Kuiper Flying Observatory (based here at Ames),
all the big science facilities like SLAC, CERN, etc. is that time is such
a precious resource, you may never get to use it.  The waiting list for
Palomar is about 5-6 years, and I think the Space Telescope Project
already has a back log of users [Some may be dead before they use it].
So you have to test your model using other means.

I have friends [Two of them former unix-wizards] starting a new observatory
in Monterey.  They just had their building dedicated in June.  They already
have work with their small computer driven 36 inch.  Their users include
UCB, NASA, and other installations [all small grants at this time, but will be
growing].  There's lots of work on ground systems.

--eugene miya
  NASA Ames Research Center

nather@utastro.UUCP (Ed Nather) (08/31/84)

[]
   >I have friends [Two of them former unix-wizards] starting a new observatory
   >in Monterey.  They just had their building dedicated in June.  They already
   >have work with their small computer driven 36 inch.  Their users include
   >UCB, NASA, and other installations [all small grants at this time, but will
   >be growing].  There's lots of work on ground systems.
   >
   >--eugene miya
   >  NASA Ames Research Center

Put up a few sunsats, so there is bright "moon"light every night, and watch
your friends give up bright-night astronomy and go back to kernel hacking.

-- 

                                 Ed Nather
                                 {allegra,ihnp4}!{ut-sally,noao}!utastro!nather
                                 Astronomy Dept., U. of Texas, Austin

henry@utzoo.UUCP (Henry Spencer) (09/11/84)

Several people have responded to my suggestion that ground-based
astronomy is dead, mostly with sharp denials.  I stand by my previous
comments, however; these folks have missed the point.

The claims that ground-based astronomy is not going to die are all based
on one fundamental postulate:

	P.	Access to space will remain expensive and infrequent.

From which we get four theorems:

	T1.	Space-based telescopes will be few.
	T2.	Observing time on space-based telescopes will be scarce.
	T3.	Space-based telescopes and their instruments must be
		built to be ultra-reliable.
	T4.	Since there are few telescopes, they and their instruments
		must be as sophisticated as possible to maximize results.

If one agrees with these assumptions, then obviously space-based astronomy
can *never* do more than supplement ground-based astronomy.

Unfortunately, all these assumptions will shortly become wrong.  Access
to space *will* become cheap and routine; the only question is how soon.
I know some people who think it *might* be within the next 10-15 years.
Certainly it will happen sometime within the next few decades.  (Note
that the Shuttle is not cheap and use of it is not routine and probably
never will be, despite the original hopes.  It will take second-generation
hardware to achieve the effect I refer to.)

Let us re-examine theorems T1-T4 on this basis.

T1 becomes false.  Space-based telescopes will be easy and cheap to loft,
hence plentiful.  The biggest hassle will be uplinks and downlinks.  This
is probably best handled by having most of the telescopes near one or more
space stations, so they can use part of the stations' ultra-high-bandwidth
communications gear.  This aside, setting up a space telescope becomes not
much harder than setting up an observatory on a nearby mountain.

T2 becomes false.  Anyone who has a real need sets up his own telescope;
minor users share existing instruments.  There is no drastic shortage of
scopes, hence no drastic shortage of observing time.

T3 becomes false.  With routine access for maintenance, there is no reason
why (say) a photometer for space use has to cost much more than a similar
instrument for ground use.  Most current ground-based instruments would
work just fine, albeit briefly, in space.  Most could be upgraded for a
fair useful life in space with very minor changes, i.e. vacuum-tolerant
lubrication for moving parts and remote controls for adjustments.  The
space environment is a bit more severe than the ground-based environment,
but not horrendously so.  The big price tags on space-qualified gear are
mostly a matter of ultra-high reliability and spectacularly inefficient
bureaucratic organizations.  [Those of you who doubt the last should look at
the costs for the amateur-radio satellites, which are orders of magnitude
below those of similar "professional" satellites.]

T4 becomes false.  Space-based instruments can be built for specific jobs
in much the same way as ground-based instruments, and there is no need
to eke every last possible bit of performance out of them -- there'll be
another one next week, after all.  This is a powerful factor in bringing
costs down.  Getting the maximum possible performance costs a bundle.

In other words, given cheap and routine space transportation, ground-based
astronomy dies.  Setting up a major, or even minor, telescope on the ground
makes no more sense than setting one up in the middle of a major city.  It's
just the wrong place.  None of the critics has come up with anything that
refutes my major contention:  the right place for astronomy is in space.
Putting it on the ground has *no* *advantages* except cost.  Once access
to space is easy and cheap, ground-based astronomy is dead except for
secondary purposes like training.

[Those who protest that mid-city telescopes are still good for something
should go talk to the Carnegie folks; they've got a 100-inch telescope
they'd like to sell you.  The Mount Wilson observatory, including the
original 100-inch telescope, is for sale.  It's too close to the suburbs
of L.A. now.  I'm sure they'll be delighted to see you, because rumor
hath it that there are no bids so far...]

> >............-- and by the way, astronomers who oppose it are cutting off
> >their noses to spite their faces...
> 
> ...
> And I know of no astronomers who are opposing the space station, and since
> I know a lot of astronomers, it obviously isn't widespread.

You've never heard of Carl Sagan?  Last I heard, he claimed to be an
astronomer.  Ditto James Van Allen, whose name should also ring a bell.
It doesn't really matter how widespread it is; influence matters more
than numbers.  A good many influential folks in the astronomy-and-space-
science community have made unfriendly noises about the space station,
on various grounds.
-- 
				Henry Spencer @ U of Toronto Zoology
				{allegra,ihnp4,linus,decvax}!utzoo!henry

elt@astrovax.UUCP (Ed Turner) (09/12/84)

This is really pretty silly.  Essentially no astronomer of the many I know
thinks that ground based astronomy is coming to an end (or even declining in
importance) in the forseeable future (decades).  Moreover, groups of 
astronomers charged with the task of planning the discipline's future have
generally reached the opposite conclusion (i.e., that there is some danger
of damage to astronomical research by devotion of too large a fraction of
available resources to space astronomy).  See for instance "Astronomy and
Astrophysics for the 1980's: Report of the Astronomy Survey Committee", a
study performed by the National Academy of Sciences (=a couple of dozen of
the county's top astronomers) which was charged (despite the 1980's reference
in the title) with taking a long range look at astronomy's future.

I hate to argue "from authority" instead of "in detail" but I simply don't
have the time to explain all of the types of observations which are not
impacted at all significantly by the atmosphere.  For a good detailed
comparison of ground based vs. space based astronomy at a quite technical
level see the Appendix of "Optical and Infared Telescopes for the 1990's"
ed. A. Hewitt, KPNO, 1980 (in Vol. 2).

Ed Turner
astrovax!elt

P.S. - The predictions of astronomers about the future of astronomy, in 
addition to whatever force of expertise they have, may in any case be
self-fullfiling.  After all, it is astronomers who will implement the
future of astronomy.