[comp.virus] Spafford's Theorems

WHMurray@DOCKMASTER.ARPA (12/23/89)

In general, I agree with theorems 1, 2, and 3.  I think that those that
deal with the future, are speculative.  However, in the same spirit and
along the same lines, I offer the following:

1. The amount of damage to data and availability done by viruses to date
has been less than users do to themselves by error every day.

2. The press speculation about the DATACRIME virus was much more
damaging than the virus.

3. The amount of damage that has been done to trust within the community
is orders of magnitude worse.

4. Viruses and rumors of viruses have the potential to destroy society's
already fragile trust in our ability to get computers to do that which
we intend while avoiding unintended adverse consequences.

5. We learn from the biological analogy that viruses are self-limiting.

Clinically, if you catch a cold, you will either get over it, or you
will die.  Epidemiologically, a virus in a limited population
will either make its hosts immune, or destroy the population.  Even in
open population, a virus must have a long incubation period and slow
replication in order to be successful (that is, replicate and spread).

6. The current vector for viruses is floppy disks and diskettes, not
programs.  That is to say, it is the media, rather than the programs,
that are moving and being shared.

A virus that is stored on such media will be very persistent.  One
infected diskette pulled from a drawer may began a new cycle.

On the other hand, diskettes as media have a limited life expectancy.
Punched paper lasted just a century; 8.5" floppies only a decade.  The
life of such media is a function of a number of complex factors.  The
success of the current technology augers for a long life, while the pace
of technology suggests that it will be short.

7. AIDS not withstanding, terrorists have more effective and efficient
mechanisms at hand.  Amateurs have a very high vested interest in a
community in which programs can be relied upon to do only what they
advertise.  It is to be hoped that they can be socialized not "to soil
their own sandpiles."

Season's Greetings.

William Hugh Murray, Fellow, Information System Security, Ernst & Young
2000 National City Center Cleveland, Ohio 44114
21 Locust Avenue, Suite 2D, New Canaan, Connecticut 06840

SPBK09@SDNET.BITNET (Brian Piersel) (01/03/90)

On Fri, 22 Dec 89 12:28:00 -0500 <WHMurray@DOCKMASTER.ARPA> said:
>6. The current vector for viruses is floppy disks and diskettes, not
>programs.  That is to say, it is the media, rather than the programs,
>that are moving and being shared.

What about infected programs uploaded to a BBS? If someone else downloads
that program and uses it, their system will be infected with the same virus.
In this case, the media has _not_ moved, which would indicate that programs
are also a vector for viruses.

Of course, in some cases, such as viruses that infect boot sectors, etc.,
the disk itself must be shared, but in others, it is only the program that
must move.

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|  Brian Piersel                               |
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soup@penrij.LS.COM (John Campbell) (01/05/90)

WHMurray@DOCKMASTER.ARPA writes:
> 1. The amount of damage to data and availability done by viruses to date
> has been less than users do to themselves by error every day.

	OK, OK.  True enough, though we don't often like to be reminded of
	this.

> 4. Viruses and rumors of viruses have the potential to destroy society's
> already fragile trust in our ability to get computers to do that which
> we intend while avoiding unintended adverse consequences.

	This is the most worrying aspect of virus/trojan/worm infections.
	We have a population which has no intrinsic immune system which
	leaves itself open to such attack.  Vectors now consist of
	communications networks (BBS and other means) as well as physical
	media.  Since we are moving towards a networked future we will
	need immune systems in our computers-  society (all of us) are
	currently subject to these terrorist acts (like the tylenol
	scare).  Remember-  any linchpin/choke point in technology, be
	it transportation, food delivery, water supply, communications
	is subject to interruption by killers.  Set some of these loose
	in a Hospital and the virus writer is _at least_ as dangerous
	as the individual who slips cyanide into food and drug products.

> 5. We learn from the biological analogy that viruses are self-limiting.

	We also learn that when the population is large enough for the
	entity to take advantage of, an entity will attempt to take
	hold.  Once we had standard PC's (and Macs, Amigas, etc) we
	then had a "fixed" cellular mechanism to subvert.  S-100 systems
	which lacked such standardization were not subject;  even the
	"standard" S-100 systems did not constitute a large enough
	population to invite attack...

> Clinically, if you catch a cold, you will either get over it, or you
> will die.  Epidemiologically, a virus in a limited population
> will either make its hosts immune, or destroy the population.  Even in
> open population, a virus must have a long incubation period and slow
> replication in order to be successful (that is, replicate and spread).

	Point taken.  A virus, since it _does_ act in the system as
	non-invasively as possible (beyond spreading its "genetic code"
	wherever possible) will be fairly successful.  Subtlety pays
	off.  Of course, these viruses are much like the HIV will eventually
	kill the host...

- --
 John R. Campbell	...!uunet!lgnp1!penrij!soup	  (soup@penrij.LS.COM)
		 "In /dev/null no one can hear you scream"