[comp.virus] Statistical Distribution of Viruses

WHMurray@DOCKMASTER.ARPA (02/02/90)

Greg Gilbert asks:

>Should I purchase the subscription or should I buy each update?  i.e.
>What is the probability in the next year that more than four viruses
>(strains, clones, etc....) will occur?

Well, after all of this clinical discussion, we finally find an
epidemiologist.  (Greg, you will enjoy my paper in "Computers and
Security," Vol. 7 No. 2, April 88.)

The decision is analogous to the decision to be inoculated against a
biological virus.  Such an inoculation has some risk and is not free.
If it is sufficiently effective and if enough others take it, there will
be no one for you to catch the virus from.  This is another way of
saying that the virus no longer finds the population sufficiently
hospitable to prosper and spread.

I have never been innoculated against Polio-myelitis.  I often
experience reactions to innoculations.  I grew up in the midst of
epidemic polio, and was likely immune anyway.  If all of the children,
least likely people to be otherwise immune, took it, a large population
from the most likely vectors would be removed.  Yes, I really did go
through that rational, but mostly I just do not like shots.

We no longer innoculate against Small-pox.

If we could clean up the Universities, Info-Centers, and retail
establishments, we would go a long way toward suppressing viruses.
Indeed, we may have to shut down PC labs.  You can now buy a Toshiba
1000 for $549.00.  This is roughly the equivalent cost of my slide
rule thirty-five years ago.  We did not share slide rules.  The
economic motive behind the shared PCs in a lab has disappeared, but
the unhealthy little cess pools persist.  Clean up your acts!

Best, Bill

peter@ficc.uu.net (Peter da Silva) (02/03/90)

WHMurray@DOCKMASTER.ARPA writes:
> I have never been innoculated against Polio-myelitis.

> We no longer innoculate against Small-pox.

The two cases are not equivalent. Smallpox doesn't have a non-human
vector.  Polio does... in fact I believe that stagnant water can serve
as a reservior for Polio. So we can't "eradicate" Polio the way we
have (almost) Smallpox.

Now I'll leave it up to you folks to decide which of these should
serve as a paradigm for Viruses.
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 _--_|\  Peter da Silva. +1 713 274 5180. <peter@ficc.uu.net>.
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