) (07/22/90)
Subject: Re: "Unsolvable" population problem
Newsgroups: sci.math,sci.math.stat
Organization: College of Engg., Univ. of Cincinnati
Cc:
Bcc:
In article <2367@l.cc.purdue.edu> you write:
There following was posted with a Followup-To:poster, but I considered the
reply important enough to post.
I hope someone can help me with a research question. I am trying to
compile criteria to take into account, along with a most workable formula
for these three questions, questions to be taken at face value, not
to be shot down by doubts, please: gutsy, helpful takers only! :-)
----- -------
1) What would the population of the Earth today be (Human) if the human
population began 1 Million years ago.
2) What would the population of the earth today be if the human
population began 5000 years ago.
3) What is the population today using the same formulation and taking
into account the same criteria.
Example of a response:
This problem cannot be answered at all. Even if the complete state of
the universe at that time was known, all physical laws were perfectly known,
and an infinitely fast computer operating at 0 cost and in 0 time was
available, all that could possibly be obtained is a probability distribution.
Obviously much less information and capabilities are at hand. Mathematics
and statistics are not black boxes which can give the state of the universe.
---------------------- More Clarification Below ---------------------------
1) Firstly, the criteria affecting population increases such as war, famine
flood, etc. is just the criteria I need as many suggestions on as
possible. Suggestions please, not discouragement would be appreciated.
2) Secondly, the model would consist of a life supporting earth such
as it is now for the human beings (obviously a male and a female
to start off right.) living 1 million years ago, as well as for
the question for the human beings 5000 years ago, as well as now.
3) The state of the universe is not what I am after my friends, I only
need helpful, intelligent, suggestions, advice, etc. I need something
other than what I have thought of to work with here. If all I do
end up with is a probability distribution, good. I want to shoot for
better than that though, no matter how rough a result it may be.
Thanks for any input you can provide!
====> ddahmer@uceng.uc.edu