73210.1674@compuserve.com (JOHN PAPIEWSKI) (01/08/90)
(Josh - this is an article written for the sci.nanotech group) It looks like the grey goo has taken over ALREADY - at least in discussions. It seems to me that it might be possible to PROVE one way or another what shape - if any - the goo threat's going to take. How about putting some of the gigabucks' worth of Pentagon battle management software, "Expert Systems", etc to work on it ? One of the most interesting things EOC brought up is the idea that there is a BEST POSSIBLE solution(s) for a given application - therefore, with souped-up engineering systems finding those solutions rapidly, material progress would eventually halt; all the best solutions having been found. We might ask, is there a BEST aggressive nasty goo ?? And what would be BEST defense against it ? Would be nice to solve those problems ahead of time. That way, we could spend the time more profitably on other topics, such as .... ...Longevity In EOC, Eric Drexler writes about a possible scenario where development of assemblers eventually leads to cell repair machines and very long human lifespans. I think current biotech research may beat nanotech to the punch by solving the aging problem. News comes almost weekly of discoveries of particular genes linked to diseases or important body functions. In the time frame that Mr. Drexler gives to development of the first assemblers (20-50 years), the effort devoted to mapping the human genome may reveal the genes responsible for triggering the aging process, and with that, a cure. After all, our cells are already equipped with repair machines; it would be simpler to improve what's already there than to design and build a cell repair machine from scratch (and who'll volunteer for the debugging ?). A cure for aging will not mean true immortality, since people will still be prone to injury and disease. But the death rates will go way, way down. It's a lot of fun speculating about a world where people live to be hundreds of years old if it's safely far off in the future. It gets considerably scarier (at least to me) if you consider it happening SOON. Much as people hate to die or to lose somebody, we're extremely unused to the idea that it could be any different. The discovery of the cure for aging will turn the whole world upside-down. The right memes to handle longer life haven't been developed yet. Religious and moral arguments against immortality (the Mortal Majority ???) would arise, but I think most people will queue up for the "magic youth pill." Few will want to be left out. Few will want to leave their pets behind, so there will be a pill for their dogs, cats, birds, and goldfish as well. And what would people do with the extra time ? I want to believe that truly useful pursuits will be developed to make best use of the added years. I fear, though, that decades will be spent in front of the TV. Boredom from a passive existence might become a strong motivator to live more actively. It seems to me that those who have the strongest motivation for living fully have had a taste of mortality - a near-fatal accident, etc. They don't take life for granted. What kind of people will we create when we hand them 500 years on a silver platter ? The subject of immortality has to come out of the closet; otherwise we will have it dumped in our laps with no time to prepare for the consequences. It has, of course, been explored in fiction, such as Anne Rice's Ramses the Damned and Douglas Adams' Wowbagger the Infinitely Prolonged. Fictional exploration is a fair source of memes; the authors have to work out some scenarios to have something to write about. Immortality has been discussed at some length on this forum, and I think that's good and should continue. John Papiewski 73210.1674@compuserve.com [Suppose we know the gene for some debilitating disease (or aging itself). Now, you happen to have that gene already present in every cell: the knowledge by itself isn't going to do you much good. The "biotech" answer might be to engineer some retrovirus what would invade every cell of your body, changing your genome--this could be tricky! A stopgap nanotech solution might be to have "robots" that undid the particular effects of the gene, without attempting to hack on your actual DNA. --JoSH]