nanotech@cs.rutgers.edu (10/26/90)
[I had a major fight with macintosh formats on this one so it is appearing here after Update 9. Enjoy! --JoSH] +---------------------------------------------------------------------+ | The following material is reprinted *with permission* from the | | Foresight Update No. 8. | Copyright (c) 1990 The Foresight Institute. All rights reserved. | +---------------------------------------------------------------------+ Market-style Software Progress The economics journal Market Process will publish an article on market-style "agoric" software in the Spring 1990 issue. The article is based on a visit by Prof. Don Lavoie of George Mason University and two graduate students to agoric authors Mark S. Miller and Eric Drexler. A free copy of this issue is available by writing to the Center for the Study of Market Processes, address given below. The visit was stimulated by the publication of a series of three papers on agoric computation written by Miller and Drexler; their suggestions may be relevant to the problem of efficiently exploiting computer systems with a trillion processors (as well as more near-term issues in computation). Miller has donated 40 sets of the papers for distribution to interested Foresight members; please send to the Foresight Institute a stamped, self-addressed 9 by 12 inch envelope with $2.05 postage within the U.S. to receive your copies. Prof. Lavoie now leads a small working group called the Agorics Project; a goal of the group is to use agoric computational techniques to model the workings of economic mechanisms, starting with Carl Menger's theory of the evolution of money in a barter economy. The group is primarily composed of economists and could use assistance from one or more persons able to program in the Smalltalk language. Those interested should contact Prof. Lavoie at the address below. The Agorics Project is planning a symposium entitled "Evolutionary Economics: Learning from Computation" on April 23-24. Sponsored by the Center for the Study of Market Processes, it will be held at George Mason University in Fairfax, VA, near Washington, DC. The focus of the meeting will be open-ended, evolutionary process modeling rather than the more traditional closed-ended, equilibrium modeling more common to economics. Among the topics to be included are agoric systems (speaker Mark S. Miller), neural nets, genetic algorithms and classifier systems. There will be no registration fee for the symposium. For further information, contact the Center for the Study of Market Processes, Dept. of Economics, George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA 22030. Books of Note Books are listed in order of increasing specialization and level of reading challenge. Your suggestions are welcome. If a book's price looks too high, ask your librarian to get it through interdepartmental loans. --Editor Envisioning a Sustainable Society, by Lester W. Milbrath, State University of New York Press, 1989, paperback, $18.95. Written by a speaker at the First Foresight Conference on Nanotechnology, this is the first environmental book to discuss nanotechnology. Possible effects, both positive and negative, are outlined, along with hypertext and the science court procedure. (There is a minor confusion regarding the connection between hypertext and nanotechnology, which would be easily fixed in a hypertext medium.) Recommended especially for those interested in the response of an academic environmentalist to Drexler's book Engines of Creation. For the lay reader. Analog Essays on Science, ed. Stanley Schmidt, Wiley Science, 1990, hardcover, $19.95. Twenty science essays including two based on nanotechnology and one on memes. Accessible to the lay reader. Microcosmos, by Jeremy Burgess, Michael Marten, and Rosemary Taylor, Cambridge University Press, 1987, hardcover, $29.95. A beautiful collection of pictures taken with light microscopes and electron microscopes of the everyday objects around (and within) us. Fascinating to those with or without a science background, the book can be used to interest nontechnical people of all ages, from grandparents to five-year-olds, in the microscale world. FI Advisor Stewart Brand: "The range and quality of images presented here is an exciting introduction to the micro-future." Molecular Machinery, by Andrew Scott, Basil Blackwell, 1989, hardcover, $19.95. An interesting short overview of chemistry, from bond types to existing molecular devices like catalysts. Accessible to the serious lay reader. Molecular Biology of the Cell, by Bruce Alberts et al., Garland, 1989, hardcover, $39.95. Second massive edition of this work on the molecular machinery in cells and general cell biology; explains how this machinery is organized in biological systems (in a manner quite different from the organization planned for nanomechanical systems). For readers with some science background. Molecular Biology of the Gene, by James Watson et al., Benjamin/Cummings, 1987, hardcover, $55.95. Fourth massive edition of this classic work on genetics. Narrower in scope than the book listed above, but it covers much more than just DNA. Technical. Conference Comments The Foresight Institute has received many comments on the First Foresight Conference on Nanotechnology. Herewith some excerpts: John Chiplin of Biosym: "The Conference brought together a fascinating collection of people. The presentations relevant to the molecular CAD field actively represented the current state-of-play and also the future challenges that lie ahead for us -- particularly in the protein/structure field. I look forward to future meetings." Michael Ward of Du Pont: "In addition to being the most well organized meeting I have attended, I found it to be one of the most stimulating as well." Prof. Josef Michl of University of Texas at Austin, Dept. of Chemistry: "It was marvelous to have an opportunity to meet people in related fields and to listen to what they have to say." A sample of the comments from the conference evaluation forms: Best aspect of the meeting: "Broad, high-quality technical presentations, superb organization." "The quality of the attendees." "Outstanding speakers and coherence among subjects." "Broad range of areas described by leaders in the field." "Cast of stars--so many top people." "Interdisciplinary contact." "Informal discussions." "Heterogeneity of participants." "Open discussion--informality." "Diversity." "Breadth of coverage." "Good mix of scientific/technical disciplines." "Caliber of speakers and guests." "The speakers acknowledged the diversity of backgrounds and started from basics." "Extensive opportunities to interact informally." "Very thought provoking" "Success in bringing together people of different disciplines for serious discussion of nanotechnology." "Clearly a meeting of quality people who wouldn't otherwise meet each other easily." "Small enough to mix and mingle." "Good overview. Emphasis of interdisciplinary aspects." "Legitimized, for me, the field of nanotechnology." Worst aspect of the meeting: "Need better meeting rooms." "Visibility of screen from side seating." "Inadequate time for informal discussion toward the end of the meeting." "Program too long." "Too short!" "Expensive!" "I ate too much. The food was too good." Nanotechnology Conference Tapes Available The First Foresight Conference on Nanotechnology was recorded on audiotape and videotape; these tapes are now available. The topics and speakers at the meeting were as follows: Welcoming remarks by Nils Nilsson, Chairman of Stanford Computer Science Dept. and GBN President Peter Schwartz Chairman's overview and introduction, Eric Drexler Electrostatic self assembly, Michael Ward, Du Pont Quantum transistors and ICs, Federico Capasso, Bell Labs Protein design, Tracy Handel, Du Pont Molecular modeling and design, Jay Ponder, Yale Molecular electronics, Robert Birge, Syracuse Univ. STM, John Foster, IBM Almaden The future of computation, Bill Joy, Sun Microsystems Micromachines, Joseph Mallon*, Nova Sensor Theoretical limits to computation, Norman Margolus, MIT Molecular systems engineering, Eric Drexler Panel on technical challenges Progress in Japan, Hiroyuki Sasabe, RIKEN Medical spinoffs, Greg Fahy, American Red Cross Environmental effects, Lester Milbrath, SUNY Risk assessment, Ralph Merkle, Xerox PARC Economic effects, Gordon Tullock, Univ. of Arizona Policy recommendations, Arthur Kantrowitz, Dartmouth Panel on consequences As we go to press we have not received a release form from the speaker marked with an asterisk, Joseph Mallon, but we hope to be able to include his talk in the distributed tape sets. An important note about the videotapes: these were made for documentary purposes only and are not broadcast quality. The cost of the audiotape set is $125, with a special price of $75 for students, nonprofit organizations, and conference attendees. The cost of the videotape set (in U.S. standard VHS format) is $225, with a special price of $150 for students, nonprofit organizations, and conference attendees. To qualify for the discounted price, students and nonprofit organizations should include proof of status with their order. To receive the tapes, send the amount above to the Foresight Institute at P.O. Box 61058, Palo Alto, CA 94306 USA. California residents add sales tax; outside the U.S. add $20 for additional shipping cost. Allow 4-6 weeks for delivery; no P.O. Box addresses please. Funds may be sent in the form of checks drawn on a U.S. bank or a postal money order cashable in the U.S. Technology Fiction by John G. Cramer Mainstream fiction is often represented as valuable to its readers because it deepens our insights, heightens our sensitivities, sharpens our perceptions, and broadens our understanding of the human condition in the world as it is today. By extension of the same argument, reading many works of science fiction can be said to prepare us to live not in the present, but in the future. SF is the literature of change, holding up the mirror of a hypothetical future that may be compared with the present, allowing contrast of what is with what could be. SF stimulates us to think about change and thus prepares us to live with change. This particularly true when the change is the result of a technological revolution. Nanotechnology is a technological revolution not yet here, an evolving technology that has not yet come to fruition, a series of breakthroughs waiting to unfold from the presently exponentiating progress in molecular biology, in microelectronics, and in nanometer-scale microscopy. A few with imagination and keen vision can see nanotechnology looming on the horizons of our civilization, a great storm cloud that promises a thorough soaking with the warm rain of enhanced capabilities, but also brings the strong winds of massive change. Nanotechnology will, in time, give us the ability to design and produce from the atomic level up almost anything we desire: wonder drugs, marvelous tools, machines, computers, vehicles, and habitats. Factories and manufacturing will become obsolete. All production, heavy or light, will be reduced to a problem of software which, once developed, can be used again and again within the usually generous limits of available resources. When this technological revolution has gone to completion our labor- and production- and information-based society will of necessity have been altered so radically that it is difficult to imagine even its shape. What central aspect of out present society would not be mutated or devalued by nanotechnology? In the present inquiry we'll examine the treatment of nanotechnology in science fiction. We'll call the fictionalized version nanotek to distinguish it from the real thing. While there have been numerous SF treatments of various aspects of biotechnology and genetic engineering, the vast potential of nanotek as fiction was largely ignored until the publication of K. Eric Drexler's visionary Engines of Creation (Doubleday, 1986). Drexler described nanotechnology and brought its implications into clear focus. Now, with an ever-increasing tempo, SF writers are beginning to use nanotek themes in their fiction and to depict its impact. In the present overview, we'll examine what several SF writers have guessed and extrapolated about the shape of fictional nanotek futures. First, however, I want to discuss some perhaps obvious aspects of SF writing. There are basic incompatibilities between good story telling and accurate prophecy. A good story needs conflict and dramatic tension. A fictional technology with too much power and potential, too much "magic", can spoil the tension and suspense. The "future" as depicted in an SF story should be recognizably like the present to maintain contact with the reader. Most SF stories depict straightforward extrapolations from the present or the past, with relatively few truly radical changes, so that the reader is not lost in a morass of strangeness. To achieve good characterization the writer must focus on a small group of people, yet most real revolutions, technological or otherwise, involve thousands of key players. The intelligence and personality integration of fictional characters cannot be much higher than that of the writer, yet enhanced intelligence may be an important aspect of the nanotechnology revolution to come. The track record of SF writers as prophets, operating within these constraints, has not been impressive. The future, as has emerged, has rarely borne much resemblance to the near-future SF that preceded it. There has been not been a global nuclear war, despite the vast popularity of the post-holocaust setting in SF. No SF stories, to my knowledge, have accurately predicted AIDS, or Supernova 1987A, or the meltdown of the iron curtain, or junk bonds and leveraged buyouts, or Dan Quayle, or most of the other things that have shaped our recent history. The nanotechnology revolution, when it comes, will not be bound by these storytelling constraints. It will almost certainly be a broadly based international effort pushed forward on many fronts by armies of scientists, engineers, and technicians working in cooperation and in competition. The chances of a single hero making a pivotal discovery in isolation are small. The impacts will also occur on a broad front, affecting every facet of everyday life. Since the realistic scenario for the nanotechnology revolution probably doesn't make a good story, we shouldn't expect SF to predict our nanotechnology future. Nevertheless, it's of value to look at some nanotek scenarios used in SF. One of the first SF stories to describe what might be loosely called nanotek is Theodore Sturgeon's much-anthologized "Microcosmic God" (Astounding, 1941). The protagonist, James Kidder, is a biochemist who, by establishing the conditions for a speeded-up form of natural selection, "evolves" the Neoterics, a tiny race of super-intelligent creatures. The Neoterics have an accelerated metabolism which permits them to accomplish any task very rapidly. Kidder causes them to solve problems for him by subjecting them to selected external forces that can cause death and destruction. Soon the Neoterics are producing a string of inventions and discoveries that make Kidder a very rich man in our society. To the Neoterics, however, he is a cruel and capricious God. Finally the clever Neoterics develop an impenetrable shield that isolates them from their "God," allowing them to continue their progress in unknown directions. The human race is left to wait nervously for the day when the Neoterics lower their shield and emerge. Sturgeon's Neoterics were small (sub-millimeter in size?), but not nanometer-scale molecular machines, and Kidder's control of them was more at the level of coercion than of programming; further, they are evolved rather than designed. If there is a warning in Sturgeon's scenario, it is that evolution, as opposed to design, may be a dangerous path for developing nanomachines because it is difficult to control. Another early SF story that anticipated some aspects of nanotechnology is James Blish's "Surface Tension" (Galaxy, 1952). A seed-ship, sent from Earth to spread human life in suitable planets of nearby star systems, has crash-landed on Hydrot, an ocean planet of the Tau Ceti system which has only one small swampy continent containing no higher life forms. The crew is dying. As their last act they create a completely new form of humanity, tiny men and women reduced to protozoan size. They seed the pools and puddles of Hydrot with this new edition of the human race. The story proper describes the adventures of one group of these micro-humans that has just mastered the biotechnology which enables it to travel from one pool to another. The nanotechnology here, as in "Microcosmic God" concerns the creation of intelligent microscopic creatures. In "Surface Tension," however, the theme concerns gaining control over a hostile environment, not loss of control as in the Sturgeon work. The protagonists have entered an age of discovery which will only end when they have conquered their planet, and indeed their "voyage" from one puddle to another packs more adventure, excitement, and sense of wonder than would the discovery of a new star system. "Surface Tension" is a refreshingly upbeat view of the the universality of human nature, even in humans reduced to microscopic size. Two mid-80s novels, Greg Bear's Blood Music (Arbor House, 1985) and Paul Preuss' Human Error (Tor, 1985), both preceding the 1986 publication of Engines, deal with the dangers of runaway biotechnology. In both novels, micro-organisms that have been bio-engineered for use in computing go out of control. In both novels these organic computers evolve and organize themselves into intelligent systems capable of infecting and "taking over" and/or enhancing human beings. The outcome for humanity, by good luck rather than any result of effort or planning, turns out to be beneficial in both. Again these scenarios can be taken as warnings that any technology capable of evolution can "run away" in a direction beyond our control. This is a concern that has also been expressed in connection with the release of genetically engineered organisms into the environment. The concern is a real one, and nanodevices will have to be designed so that this loss of control cannot occur. On the basis of the pre-design studies that have already been done, this goal is readily achievable. "Counters" that limit the number of device duplications, and encryption schemes for DNA coding sequences are two methods that have been suggested. Probably the danger inherent in nanotechnology lies in its misuse through human malice and stupidity rather than from a runaway of evolving nanomachines. Perhaps the bravest attempt to write the Great American nanotek (or perhaps biotek) novel and to deal with the impact on a broad front is Leo Frankowski's Copernick's Rebellion (Del Rey, 1987). In Frankowski's novel an international agreement has eliminated all government funding of genetic engineering, thereby nearly killing the field. Martin Guidebo, an erratic genius who escaped Germany in 1940 with the Nazis at his heels, and Heinrich Copernick, his war-orphan nephew who is now a successful 1990s industrialist, decide to develop genetic engineering using their own funds. They have developed such super-tools as an "X-ray resonance microscope", a microscalpel using an X-ray laser, and a supercomputer based bio-simulator which allow them to directly manipulate the DNA programming of organisms and to accurately predict the results of such manipulations. They use this technology to rebuild their own bodies and to rejuvenate themselves. They focus their new technology on the consumer, developing a series of "treehouse" habitats that provide for all the needs of the humans living in them, and they distribute treehouse seeds free to all takers. The economic disruption that results produces a duel between the "stuffed shirts," as Guidebo calls elected officials, and our rebel nanotek heroes. The escalating warfare that ensues, after many thousands of deaths and the calculated sabotage of most pre-organic machines, results in the replacement of our present politico-economic system with an idyllic anarchy. Frankowski's technocratic vision is a nice try at a possibly impossible task. He avoids many of the problems of a real technology revolution by putting the capabilities exclusively in the hands of just two clever and lucky men who, to the best of Frankowski's abilities, are described as using it wisely. The novel is thought provoking but far from satisfying and unintentionally rather horrifying. By the conclusion, the number of loose ends gives the novel the aspect of a shag rug. The implication of Frankowski's work is that even the rather limited biotechnology he describes, which offers considerably less potential than true nanotechnology, intolerable stresses are placed on our existing slow-moving ill-prepared political system. Even with "good guys" at the controls, the result is military intervention, violence, anarchy, and a large number of dead bodies. Vernor Vinge, a SF writer of note and a mathematician who understands well the behavior of the exponential function, has focused attention on the implications of our exponentially rising technological capabilities, among which are those implicit in nanotek. In his story collection True Names Vinge discussed his expectation that this techno-explosion will culminate in a few decades in what he calls "The Singularity." His novel Marooned in Realtime describes a group of post-Singularity stragglers living on a depopulated Earth. They have "spaced over" the Singularity, having had the fortune (or misfortune) to be suspended in stasis at the time when it occurred and when the rest of the human population mysteriously vanished. This premise forms the background for an entertaining futuristic murder mystery. In using this format for his novel, Vinge the writer has himself spaced over the need to describe the Singularity or the events leading up to it, except with a few obscure hints. This is perhaps inevitable, but it provides us with little insight as to what nanotek explosion may be store for us in the coming decades or how we should prepare. Jeffrey Carver's novel From a Changeling Star (Bantam, 1989) uses nanotechnology as a central plot element and even has a central character named E'rik Daxter. Another character is repeatedly "assassinated" and restored by nanomachines in his body, and intelligent nano-creatures are one of the power groups. However, nanotek has not impacted Carver's civilization as a whole. Rather it is a kind of "magic" possessed in secret by one particular faction. This is an enjoyable book that develops many interesting ideas, but as a guide to how nanotechnology might impact our civilization Changeling Star isn't very helpful. Greg Bear's short story "Sisters" (Tangents, Warner, 1989) concerns the downside of tinkering with the human genome. Letitia is an NG (natural genome) teenager attending a high school where most of the students are PPCs (pre-planned children) whose genomes have been manipulated for enhanced intelligence, physical beauty, and improved athletic abilities. A latent "bug" in the genetic software of the PPC children becomes evident, a neural instability leading to epileptic seizures and death. Letitia, formerly resentful of her inferiority to the PPC children, loses some of her PPC friends and grows up. Bear's scenario is all too plausible. Those of us who write computer programs know that the easy part of programming is the writing of the program; the difficult part is the subsequent elimination of all the bugs, the programming mistakes and misconceptions. Surely genetic engineering, which involves a "mainframe" far more complex than a simple digital computer, will have similar problems. How will the nanotek engineers of the future debug design-improvements in the human genome? Simulation? Or trial-and-error? Gregory Benford's story "Warstory" (IASM, January-90) is, at one level, about another genetic engineering accident. The greenhouse effect has raised the levels of the oceans, and southern California has become a new Netherlands, protected from the incursions of the Pacific behind a wall of dikes. The dikes are protected by a living organic coating that prevents corrosion and repels barnacles and other sea life. But the coating mutates and begins to eat the seawall it was designed to protect. Or is this techno-thriller the recreational reading of a stranded pilot fighting a space-war on Ganymede? The reader isn't quite sure. Poul Anderson's new novel Boat of a Million Years (Tor, 1989), is, for most of the book, set in the past. But the immortal protagonists progress through history to the present and beyond, and the last chapters take place in a future in which nanotechnology and a nuclear war have radically altered civilization. The details of the nanotek revolution are never explicitly spelled out, but the sea-changes in economics, aesthetics, and values are everywhere apparent. This is certainly Anderson's best book since Avatar, perhaps his best novel ever. The level of thought and balanced judgement that has gone into this convincing portrayal of a post-nanotek civilization, though a minor part of the overall work, is impressive. The portrait of the nanotek revolution, however, is a low-resolution image deep in the background of a work that is focused elsewhere. Greg Bear's forthcoming novel Queen of Angels (Warner, 1990) is set in 2047, roughly a decade after the onset of a major nanotek revolution. There is abundant nanotek here. The principal protagonist, a woman police professional, is a "transform" whose body has been restructured and improved by nanotek. A sculptor, his hands scarred by the careless use of nanomachines, is supervising the nanotek restructuring of an old building from the inside out. Concealed in the hollow handle of a hairbrush, a nanomachine "goo" can be used to convert scrap steel and plastic into a fully loaded pistol as needed. An intelligent nanotek-based star probe orbiting an earth-like planet of the Alpha Centauri system is relaying the observations of its nanomachine "children" on the planet's surface. Specialized nanomachines are injected into humans to construct neural interfaces that permit mind-to-mind contact used for therapy. A variant of the mind-therapy technology, the "hellcrown" is the ultimate instrument of torture, used to extract massive retribution from criminals. And so on. Bear tells a fine story and does the best job in SF so far of portraying the societal impact of nanotek. My instincts say that the real impacts of a real nanotechnology will be even more far-reaching, even more invasive, than those depicted in Queen of Angels. But they are also far more difficult to predict. Nanotek is a relatively new theme in SF, an new flavor of technical "magic." SF writers are just beginning to explore its potential, to find ways of exploiting its potential and dealing with its intrinsic problems and pitfalls. It will perhaps be decades before the nanotechnological revolution arrives, but in the interim there will be time for SF writers to prepare us for this revolution to come. We live in "interesting times." John G. Cramer is a Professor of Physics at the University of Washington, Seattle, and author of Twistor, a near-future hard-SF novel published in hardcover by William Morrow & Company in March 1989. His science-fact column, "The Alternate View," is published bi-monthly in Analog Science Fiction/Science Fact Magazine. New Journal: Nanotechnology A Call for Papers has been issued for a new journal entitled Nanotechnology to be sponsored by the Institute of Physics in the U.K. A quarterly, to begin in June 1990, it is described as the world's first journal devoted exclusively to nanoscale physics, electronics, and engineering. Nanotechnology is stated to be "a key enabling technology of the future," which "bridges the gap between the very ultimate advances in conventional engineering manufacture, metrology, and performance and the application of atomic level regimes to practical usage in engineering, fabrication, optics, electronics, materials science, biology, and medicine." The planned scope of the journal includes: engineering fabrication involving atomic level machining metrology involving dimension size and tolerances less than the wavelength of light and down to values of at least 0.2 nm but preferably to x-ray levels performance of micromechanisms to the subnanometer and molecular levels in the design of instruments and machine tools the application of nanometer level instruments such as scanning tunneling microscopes to biology, medicine, and materials science. The backgrounds of the Editor and Editorial Board indicate that the journal will have a special focus on metrology, the science of measurement. E. Clayton Teague of the National Institute of Standards and Technology, one of the journal's Regional Editors, informs us that it will also cover nanoelectronics, molecular electronics, and vacuum microelectronics. While the journal's scope indicates that the title Nanotechnology refers to the broader, British meaning (not just technology based on molecular manufacturing, but all nanoscale technology) it promises to be an interesting contribution to the literature. For further information, contact the publisher IOP Publishing Ltd, Techno House, Redcliffe Way, Bristol, BS1 6NX, U.K. Media Coverage In the December 9 issue of The Economist, James Younger presents one of the clearest explanations of nanotechnology that has appeared in the nontechnical press, including the concept of assemblers and the possibility of both beneficial and abusive applications. Not surprising for The Economist, our favorite newsweekly, which routinely includes good science and technology coverage. The December 23 Science News listed the Foresight Institute's first conference on nanotechnology as one of the top eight technology stories of the year. The January Scientific American Science and the Citizen section included a piece by Timothy Beardsley on the Foresight Conference. In true journalists' tradition, the writer did his best to include criticisms of the concepts, but nanotechnology emerged unscathed. The Los Angeles Times (Jan. 7) and the Washington Post (Jan. 14) ran an article by Michael Schrage on the future of technological advance, including nanotechnology. The British science and technology series "Tomorrow's World" shown on BBC-TV (8 February) featured an interview of Eric Drexler on nanotechnology. The book Megatrends 2000 by John Naisbitt and Patricia Aburdeen (William Morrow, 1990) mentions nanotechnology and the book Engines of Creation. The March issue of JOM (formerly the Journal of Metals) is expected to include coverage of the Foresight Conference by David Forrest, a member of the MIT Nanotechnology Study Group. Additional coverage of nanotechnology and the conference is expected in the Whole Earth Review (Summer 1990 issue?) and The Atlantic (June or July). Nanotechnology Symposium at MIT by David Lindbergh "Nanotechnology: Molecular Engineering and its Implications," the fifth MIT Nanotechnology Study Group (NSG) symposium, was held January 30 and 31 at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Well over 150 people, many of them standing, crowded into the lecture hall as NSG member Christopher Fry opened the symposium. The two-day event presented a dozen speakers covering both the latest progress in nanotechnology development and some of the possible implications of this powerful new technology. Fry set the ground rules for the symposium, saying "I want to impress upon you that you have a responsibility to find holes in arguments that are presented by speakers and force them to respond to those holes. What you are not allowed to do is walk out of here with any major unasked questions." The first lecture, presented by Foresight Institute president K. Eric Drexler, was an introduction to nanotechnology and an exposition on the technical foundations of molecular engineering. There were many chemists in the audience, and Drexler contrasted assembler techniques with conventional solution chemistry. Assemblers will move selected molecules to a specific position to cause a particular reaction, while solution chemistry relies on random diffusive transport to bump the right molecules against each other in large numbers. Apparently some of the chemists in the audience were uncomfortable with the "foreign" notion of using gears, bearings, and other analogs of macro-scale devices on the molecular level. In Drexler's words "Chemists have never been able to build large, rigid, precise structures; so they are used to thinking in terms of small or floppy molecules moving by diffusion." Next, Howard C. Berg from Harvard University's Department of Biology described a 2 billion year old "nanotechnology" device, the flagellar motor. These motors are found in E. coli bacteria, where tiny rotary engines turn corkscrew propellers to push the bacteria through fluids which (at that scale) have a viscosity equivalent to a human swimming through light tar. Just 25 nanometers in diameter, the motor can be made to run at speeds of 300 to 3000 RPM, and produces maximum torque at stall. It has about 30 different parts, eight independent force-generating elements, and can run in forward or reverse. The motor uses 256 protons to drive each revolution. Dr. Berg's model of the motor's operation involves simple arrangements of channels, binding sites, and springs. This natural biological device shows that physical law allows nanometer scale machines with complex moving parts. Gary Tibbetts from General Motors Research Laboratories discussed his work growing hollow carbon tubes as small as ten nanometers in diameter. The walls of these tubes can be as few as 10 atoms thick. His purpose is to develop an inexpensive way to make carbon fibers for very strong, light automobile structures, but these filaments might be a useful addition to a "toolkit" for early nanotechnology. Gary Marx from the MIT Department of Urban Studies and Planning discussed privacy and security issues arising from nanotechnology. He fears that competitive pressures and complacency could easily cause the technology to be misused, resulting in a "Big Brother" society in which everyone is spied upon, personal information becomes public, irrelevant information is used to screen and stigmatize people, and technology is controlled by a privileged elite. He advised caution in dealing with new technologies, and vigilance against slow, creeping losses of privacy and control. The MIT audience seemed to take many of Marx's points seriously, but NSG member Jeff MacGillivray pointed out that when advanced technology makes it possible to produce convincing fake records (video, computer, etc.), human witnesses will become more trustworthy than the output of automated surveillance. Eric Garfunkel from Rutgers University's Laboratory for Surface Modification discussed some of the latest advances in scanning tunneling microscopy (STM). The STM is a device that can piezoelectrically position an atomically sharp tip with atomic precision and image a surface by moving the tip close enough (about one nanometer) to cause electrons to tunnel between the tip and surface. As the surface varies in height, the tip moves up and down to maintain a steady tunneling current. Recently STMs have been used to modify surfaces on a nanometer scale. Garfunkel's group has succeeded in gouging trenches in silicon that are 10 nanometers wide and one atomic layer deep by bumping the tip into the surface. Dongmin Chen from the Rowland Institute for Science in Cambridge has been using similar techniques to produce atomic scale tunnel diodes. He has also used the STM to make 0.4 nanometer high bumps on silicon surfaces in regular patterns. Several audience members were concerned these tiny features would quickly disappear as atoms move around to fill holes and smooth out bumps. Chen responded that in materials like silicon the features are quite stable and have lasted as long as he can measure. In some other materials (such as gold, which has an unusually mobile layer of atoms at its surface) the features can disappear in 10 or 15 minutes. Bruce Gelin from Polygen Corporation provided an overview of the state of the art in molecular modeling. He explained that while Schrodinger's "perfect" mathematical model of atomic behavior has been known for over 60 years, this quantum mechanical model is so computationally expensive that it's impractical to use it for anything bigger than a single hydrogen molecule, even with modern computers. So the challenge for molecular modelers is to find computationally tractable approximations for molecular behavior that are close enough to give the same practical results as nature. With current algorithms and workstation-type computers, one femtosecond (one millionth of a nanosecond) in the life of a small protein can be simulated in about one second. Gelin then presented a quick "how to do it" session for the would-be molecular modelers in the audience. Kevin Ulmer, director of the Laboratory for Bioelectronic Materials with the Japanese RIKEN research agency, discussed RIKEN's 15 year project to produce self-assembling electronic materials using protein engineering techniques. Their ultimate goal is to produce a massively parallel cellular automata machine by making "wallpaper" of proteins with different electrical properties tiling a two-dimensional plane. For the shorter term, Ulmer said he would be satisfied to be able to tile a plane with arbitrary patterns of specified proteins. Michael Rubner from the MIT Department of Materials Science discussed his molecular electronics work with 1 to 2 nanometer thick Langmuir/Blodgett films, in which he is trying to build up multiple layers of conducting polymers to make electronic devices. Abraham Ulman from Eastman Kodak Research Laboratories has been working on the construction of 3 nanometer monolayers for fiber optic applications. He spoke about his progress and the complexities of computational modeling of these monolayers. Greg Fahy, a cryobiology researcher with the American Red Cross, discussed medical and life extension applications of nanotechnology. While powerful cell repair machines may represent a distant goal for nanotechnological medicine, Fahy pointed out that many biochemical events associated with aging are already somewhat understood, and might be partially counteracted with drugs even before nanotechnology arrives. Fahy suggested some early goals for medical nanotechnology might be devices to transport specific molecules, programmable DNA inserters, removers, and "methyl-decorators," and "trans-membrane gates" to transport molecules into and out of cells. Symposium chairman K. E. Nelson wrapped up the event with some cautionary advice about the potential dangers of nanotechnology. He reminded the audience that new technologies have dangers as well as benefits, and that while on the whole the benefits are usually greater, anything as powerful as nanotechnology must be handled very carefully, lest the dangers sweep us away before we can enjoy the benefits. The possibility of replicating devices and nanotechnology's powerful generality mean that foolishness (despite good intentions) or actual malign intent, could too easily result in disaster. Nanotechnology could allow people to change themselves, and our definitions of humanity. Nelson advocated careful and controlled development of the technology and better awareness on the part of the scientific community of the potential impact and likely results of their work. He reminded the MIT audience that it was their responsibility to make nanotechnology work, not just happen. This symposium was supported by the MIT Department of Chemical Engineering, MIT Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, MIT IAP Funding Committee, and the MIT Graduate Student Council. This year's symposium focused more than previously on near-term techniques leading to the actual development of nanotechnology. Symposium organizer Zeke Gluzband noted afterward that "an order of magnitude more serious people seemed interested than a year ago." Nelson commented that he "discovered a much greater degree of acceptance of nanotechnology than in previous years. People seemed comfortable with talking in public about the subject." As nanotechnology comes closer to reality, symposia like this one expose increasing numbers of scientists to the potential and eventual consequences of their work. Hopefully this awareness will help to channel the applications of the technology into benign directions. David Lindbergh is a consulting software engineer in the Boston area and a member of the MIT Nanotechnology Study Group. International Interest in Nanotechnology The World Economic Forum, held annually in Davos, Switzerland, is a major meeting of several hundred world leaders in government, industry, and business. At one point during the meeting this February, 70 ministers and heads of state were present, lending support to the meeting's unofficial description as the "world economic summit." At this year's event, three sessions included nanotechnology as a major topic. At a Plenary Session on February 6, entitled "Technological Turbulences," Eric Drexler spoke on nanotechnology (with simultaneous translation into seven languages). The other session speakers were James Watson (co-discoverer of the structure of DNA) and Mark Wrighton, head of MIT's chemistry department, with physicist Sergei Kapitsa as session chair. According to Kapitsa, a ten-minute segment on nanotechnology was subsequently aired on the Soviet Union's Radio Liberty channel. Following the plenary, Drexler met with a smaller group to brief them in more detail on expected developments. The next day, FI's editor Chris Peterson held a briefing focusing on the expected environmental benefits of using molecular manufacturing to replace today's relatively inefficient and dirty manufacturing processes. On February 8 Drexler gave a more technical presentation to an audience at the University of Basel, sponsored by Prof. H.-J. Gntherodt, an pioneering researcher in the field of scanning tunneling microscopy. The next day a similar presentation was given at IBM's Zurich Research Laboratory, sponsored by physicist Heinrich Rohrer, one of the Nobel-prizewinning inventors of the STM. Part of the laboratory tour included a look at the recent remarkable electron microscopy work of Hans-Werner Fink, as yet unpublished. This work may be of great use in developing nanotechnology, and will be reported here as soon as possible. Videotapes of the World Economic Forum plenary session are available from Gretag Displays Ltd, 8105 Regensdorf, Switzerland, at a cost of 100 Swiss francs. Specify session 12; indicate NTSC format for U.S. standard VHS format. Draft: Virtual Reality - David Gagliano New Technology: Virtual Reality by David Gagliano Computers have become critical support tools for the development of advanced technologies. They will be essential for developing nanotechnology, yet the complexity of most computer systems makes them difficult to use. The learning barrier that must be overcome to use a computer system prevents people from exploiting computers to their full potential. Researchers have been experimenting with a new genre of computer interface technology to make complex systems easier to use. Termed Virtual Reality (VR), this new interface technology will revolutionize the way people think about and work with computers. Instead of forcing the user to learn awkward control devices, such as the keyboard, a VR interface supports interactions already familiar to the user. The user is placed in a simulated working environment where gestures and spoken commands are used to control simulated objects. VR uses a combination of stereoscopic image generation and sensor technologies to simulate the interaction environment. Computers generate 3D images of the environment while sensors track the user's movements. The user is provided with a sense of being an active participant in the simulation, a feeling reminiscent of the movie TRON. The image generation technology essential for creating virtual environments has been developing quickly. Researchers supporting NASA's Virtual Environment Workstation project have developed a prototype 3D display system using color liquid crystal display screens (similar to those found on portable TVs) mounted on a lightweight helmet. Computers drive each eye's LCD with the appropriate images, and the person wearing the helmet sees the simulated environment in 3D. Coupling the helmet with sensors for head orientation and eye movement allows the user to gaze about the simulated environment while the computer generates the appropriate scenery. Researchers working on the U.S. Air Force's Super Cockpit program have developed a helmet-mounted display tube that projects its image onto a clear acrylic visor. The clear visor display allows computer generated images to be superimposed over the user's vision. Rather than replace the user's environment with an artificial one, a clear display system would help a user/wearer better interact with the real environment. Similar displays for automobiles would allow a driver to read a car's instrumentation without diverting attention from the road. Helmet-based displays allow the user to look about the VR, but the user also needs a way to interact with simulated objects. VPL Inc. of Redwood City, CA, recently introduced a VR interface technology that links the operator's movements to the computer. Flexible sensors sewn onto a lightweight fabric provide information on the orientation of the user's hand and the positions of the fingers to the computer controlling the simulation. When wearing DataGloves in a VR, the user can reach out and grasp elements of the modeled environment. VPL recently extended the DataGlove concept to bring the rest of the body into the simulation, creating a DataSuit. The commercial products produced by VPL remains expensive, from $250,000 to $500,000. Similar but lower cost devices are in the technology demonstration stage at Autodesk Inc. of Sausalito, CA. Autodesk, the producer of AutoCAD--the industry standard computer-aided design software for IBM-PC platforms--plans to use the devices as interfaces to its software products. Although DataGloves and the DataSuit allow the user to interact with the VR, the simulation does not provide the physical feedback cues familiar to the user. A simulated ball has no substance and slips through the fingers like mist. The problem of providing physical feedback from a VR is slowly yielding to creative solutions. Researchers at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill have converted a robot arm into a device for providing primitive force feedback. The user operates a pistol-like grip attached to the mechanical arm to manipulate objects in the simulation. When the user attempts to move an object, the arm moves the grip against the user's hand. The user interprets this resistance as coming from the object in the simulation. Led by Prof. Frederick Brooks of the UNC Computer Science Dept., UNC is applying this feedback technology to help scientists obtain a better understanding of the way molecules fit together (molecular docking problems). The user `feels' the forces associated with moving the molecules against each other, while watching computer-generated images of the molecules in motion. Another UNC innovation combines a modified treadmill with handlebars, producing a system that allows the user to stroll through a VR. Users can journey through a model of the UNC campus, using the handlebars for steering, without worrying about running into walls. Interfaced with an electron or scanning tunneling microscope, this technology could also be used to `walk' across the surface of an integrated circuit. At the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Margaret Minsky has been working to create a device that provides feedback for virtual textures. A prototype device is based upon a pencil-like stylus. To `feel' the texture of an object modeled in the VR, the user runs the stylus over the object's surface. The sensation is similar to running a pencil over coarse sandpaper or over a china plate. Air Force researchers have also used piezoelectric buzzers to provide limited tactile feedback from a VR. The buzzers are mounted inside special gloves, and activated when the user's hand is moved through through a plane in space. Because the user perceives the plane as a penetrable wall of pressure, this technique could be used to delineate a simulation's physical boundaries. Although much innovation is still needed for realistic physical feedback, aural feedback and oral command interfaces are proving extremely useful in VR. By adding speakers to their display helmet, Air Force researchers found that directional sound cues could enhance a VR with valuable information. For example, positional sound cues could provide the locations of threat aircraft without interrupting the pilot. Speaker-independent speech recognition systems are now widely available; adding a microphone allows the user to control the VR with spoken commands. Applications of VR interface technology are nearly endless. Prof. Thomas Furness, Director of the University of Washington's Human Interface Technology Laboratory, sees VR interfaces as an important component in developing and controlling nanomachinery. He is currently working to develop a VR interface for controlling a micromachined surgical robot. A surgeon will control an onboard surgical laser, using VR displays to operate on delicate tissues. NASA is considering equipping space suits with VR to provide astronauts access to control panels and technical information while away from the shuttle. A ground-based engineer could become `tele-present' in the astronaut's VR, providing critical design information while the astronaut works to repair a damaged satellite. VR could even make conventional space travel more economical by replacing weighty instrument panels with virtual displays. Perhaps the most exciting aspect of VR technology is that it provides a new medium for working with computers, a medium with few limits. VR technology can break down the barriers that limit computer utilization, making complicated systems more accessible. Empowering people with better support tools will result in greater productivity and faster progress, accelerating our advance into an era of nanotechnology. David Gagliano is a software engineer at BDM International and VP of Nanotechnology Group Inc., a Seattle-based information services firm. New Voice at FI When you call the Foresight Institute you will hear a new voice, that of Chris Rodgers. Chris is working with FI half-time and handles most phone inquiries and the vast bulk of mail requests, including all new memberships and renewals. We're glad to have her on board and hope you will join with us in welcoming her when you call FI. +---------------------------------------------------------------------+ | Copyright (c) 1990 The Foresight Institute. 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