dmt@ahuta.UUCP (d.tutelman) (01/15/85)
REFERENCES: <706@cbosgd.UUCP> > Some popular writers about the early days of computers quote a > major industry figure as saying, "Only X of these giant machines will be > needed to make all the calculations in the world." The number X is always > small, ranging from three to 20...... > My own undocumented recollection is that a statement like this first > turned up between 1946 and 1948 and was ascribed to a Remington-Rand executive. > He was said to have said that since 18 Univacs would satisfy the computing > needs of the U.S., that was all they should plan to make. My recollections agree with Weiss'. I had heard the year as 1947, the number as 6, the horizon of the prediction as 30 years, and the quotation being the result of RemRand's market research for the Univac I. The research was based on the scientific number-crunching that the machines were doing to that point (classic example: ballistic trajectory tables). According to my source (name long-since forgotten), Watson of IBM had the insight to see that the machines could be programmed to replace the plugboard-programmed card-punch calculators that IBM was then selling by the bushel. (When I was a kid, "IBM machines" were the things that graded our uniform tests.) (This also explains the use by Watson of the word "calculators" for computers.) So while RemRand waited for the next customer to sign up for a custom machine, IBM set up an assembly line and established its dominance of the market. (If this is anywhere near correct, then attributing the original quote to Watson is not only wrong, it's slander.) Sorry I can't give a reference. But at least I can encourage you that you're looking in the right direction. Dave Tutelman