miket@brspyr1.brs.com (Mike Trout) (05/26/89)
From: miket@brspyr1.brs.com (Mike Trout)
Sorry if this has been posted before, but our news feed is in flames and I
can't even tell if this message will make it out. There were recently some
queries in sci.military regarding the reliability of nuclear weapons, and I
have a chart that is of interest in this area.
I adapted it from Jim Dunnigan's _How_to_Make_War_, modifying as necessary with
sources such as the International Institute of Strategic Studies. The charts
include both strategic and tactical weapons, as well as those assigned to NATO
countries that are nuclear capable even if the owning nation has no nukes.
Included is the date of introduction and the number currently in service. This
last is highly questionable, as the book was published in 1982 and is rapidly
becoming obsolete. I've tried to adjust where I could; weapons not listed had
no reliability figures mentioned. Take all this with a very large grain of
salt; some folks don't like Dunnigan's approach and would undoubtedly violently
disagree with his figures. Feel free to discuss, but if you want me to see it,
you'd better e-mail, and even then it's doubtful if you'll reach me. I take
respnsibility for any mistakes I may have made.
"Serviceability" is defined as that percentage of a given weapons system that
can be launched or otherwise used at any given moment. Strategic weapons are
not as well tested as tactical ones, so they tend to have lower figures.
"Reliability/Survivability" is that percentage of launched weapons (see above)
that actually make it to their destination. For missiles and artillery, losses
come about from in-flight malfunctions; for aircraft and cruise missiles, from
being shot down plus in-flight malfunctions. All weapons may also be affected
by duds or any other number of things going wrong at the worst possible time.
For both Serviceability and Reliability/Survivability, wartime pressures will
cause the numbers to increase. Needed maintenance will be deferred or
cancelled, and weapons will be deployed that should really be back in the shop.
As a war drags on, this will get worse and worse, until a successful hit
becomes a minor miracle.
Reliability/
Serviceability Survivability Date # Deployed
BELGUIM NUCLEAR CAPABLE LAND BASED
M-110 203mm SP Howitzer 90% 90% 1962 10?
M-109 155mm SP Howitzer 90% 90% 1964 39?
MGM-52C Lance 80% 90% 1976 5?
CANADA NUCLEAR CAPABLE AIRCRAFT
F-104 Starfighter 70% 35% 1958 42-?
CANADA NUCLEAR CAPABLE LAND BASED
M-109 155mm SP Howitzer 90% 90% 1964 50?
CHINA NUCLEAR AIRCRAFT
Tupolev Tu-16 60% 35% 1968 50
CHINA LAND BASED
CSS-3 80% 75% 1970 6+?
CSS-4 70% 65% 1970 12+?
CSS-2 70% 95% 1971 90
DENMARK NUCLEAR CAPABLE LAND BASED
M-109 155mm SP Howitzer 90% 90% 1964 72?
FRANCE NUCLEAR AIRCRAFT
Mirage IVA 65% 50% 1962 33
Mirage IIIE 75% 40% 1964 30
Jaguar 80% 65% 1974 45?
Super Etendard 75% 40% 1980 12
FRANCE LAND BASED
Pluton 75% 90% 1974 30
SSBS S-3 90% 85% 1980 18
FRANCE SUBMARINE BASED
MSBS M-20 60% 75% 1977 80
GREECE NUCLEAR CAPABLE AIRCRAFT
F-104 Starfighter 70% 35% 1958 53-?
GREECE NUCLEAR CAPABLE LAND BASED
MGR-1B Honest John 80% 90% 1953 36?
M-110 203mm SP Howitzer 90% 90% 1962 20?
M-109 155mm SP Howitzer 90% 90% 1964 72?
ITALY NUCLEAR CAPABLE AIRCRAFT
F-104 Starfighter 70% 35% 1958 36?
ITALY NUCLEAR CAPABLE LAND BASED
M-110 203mm SP Howitzer 90% 90% 1962 36?
M-109 155mm SP Howitzer 90% 90% 1964 220?
MGM-52C Lance 80% 90% 1976 6?
NETHERLANDS NUCLEAR CAPABLE AIRCRAFT
F-104 Starfighter 70% 35% 1958 18-?
NETHERLANDS NUCLEAR CAPABLE LAND BASED
M-110 203mm SP Howitzer 90% 90% 1962 61?
M-109 155mm SP Howitzer 90% 90% 1964 222?
MGM-52C Lance 80% 90% 1976 6?
TURKEY NUCLEAR CAPABLE AIRCRAFT
F-104 Starfighter 70% 35% 1958 96?
TURKEY NUCLEAR CAPABLE LAND BASED
MGR-1B Honest John 80% 90% 1953 18?
M-109 155mm SP Howitzer 90% 90% 1964 108?
UK NUCLEAR AIRCRAFT
Vulcan B.2 65% 50% 1960 0
Buccaneer 65% 50% 1962 48-?
Jaguar 80% 65% 1974 48?
UK LAND BASED
M-110 203mm SP Howitzer 90% 90% 1962 16?
M-109 155mm SP Howitzer 90% 90% 1964 101?
MGM-52C Lance 80% 90% 1976 12?
UK SUBMARINE BASED
Polaris A-3 60% 75% 1964 64
USA NUCLEAR AIRCRAFT
B-52D Stratofortress 65% 50% 1959 80-?
B-52G/H Stratofortress 75% 70% 1959 260
F-4 Phantom II 75% 50% 1962 364?
A-6E Intruder (CV) 75% 65% 1963 20?
A-7E Corsair II (CV) 75% 45% 1966 40?
F-111E/F Aardvark 80% 75% 1967 156
FB-111A Aardvark 80% 80% 1969 60
USA LAND BASED
M-110 203mm SP Howitzer 90% 90% 1962 300+?
LGM-30 Minuteman I 85% 75% 1962 0
LGM-25C Titan II 75% 75% 1963 54-?
M-109 155mm SP Howitzer 90% 90% 1964 360+?
MGM-31A/B Pershing 90% 95% 1964 128+?
LGM-30F Minuteman II 90% 80% 1965 450
LGM-30G Minuteman III 90% 85% 1970 550
MGM-52C Lance 80% 90% 1976 90
BGM-109A Tomahawk GLCM 45% 40% 1985 0+?
LGM-118A Peacekeeper 90% 90% 1986 0+?
USA SUBMARINE BASED
Polaris A-2 60% 65% 1962 0
Polaris A-3 60% 75% 1964 160
UGM-73A Poseidon C-3 60% 80% 1971 480
Trident C-4 60% 80% 1979 16+?
BGM-109A Tomahawk SLCM 60% 40% 1985 0+?
Trident D-5 60% 80% 1987 0+?
USSR NUCLEAR AIRCRAFT
Tupolev Tu-16 65% 45% 1955 568-?
Tupolev Tu-95 70% 45% 1955 100+?
Myasishchev M-4 70% 45% 1956 40-?
Tupolev Tu-22 60% 60% 1962 165-?
Mikoyan MiG-27 65% 65% 1973 300+?
Sukhoi Su-24 65% 70% 1974 370+?
Tupolev Tu-26 70% 75% 1974 145+?
USSR LAND BASED
SS-4 65% 60% 1959 350-?
SS-5 70% 75% 1961 60-?
SS-1c Scud B 70% 90% 1962 650-?
SS-7 75% 75% 1962 0
SS-11 Model 3 75% 80% 1966 470
SS-12 70% 85% 1966 100-?
FROG-7 65% 90% 1967 870-?
SS-8 75% 75% 1967 0
S-23 180mm Towed Gun 90% 90% 1969 ?
SS-13 80% 85% 1969 60
SS-9 75% 80% 1971 0
SS-21 70% 90% 1971 80+?
RS-20 Model 1 80% 85% 1974 0+?
RS-18 Model 1 75% 75% 1974 280
RS-17 Model 1 75% 75% 1975 160
RS-20 Model 2 75% 75% 1976 107
RS-17 Model 2 80% 85% 1977 20
RS-20 Model 3 85% 85% 1977 26
SS-20 75% 80% 1977 120+?
SS-16 80% 85% 1978 0
RS-18 Model 2 85% 85% 1978 100
RS-20 Model 4 75% 75% 1979 175
SS-22 65% 90% 1979 36+?
SS-23 65% 90% 1980 30+?
USSR SUBMARINE BASED
SS-N-4 35% 55% 1961 3
SS-N-5 35% 60% 1963 57
SS-N-6 35% 65% 1968 468
SS-N-8 65% 65% 1973 289
SS-N-6 Model 3 35% ? 1974 ?
SS-N-17 35% 70% 1977 12
SS-N-18 65% 75% 1977 160
SS-N-20 65% 70% 1983 0+?
WEST GERMANY NUCLEAR CAPABLE AIRCRAFT
F-104 Starfighter 70% 35% 1958 90?
WEST GERMANY NUCLEAR CAPABLE LAND BASED
M-110 203mm SP Howitzer 90% 90% 1962 230?
M-109 155mm SP Howitzer 90% 90% 1964 586?
BGM-31A/B Pershing 90% 95% 1964 72?
MGM-52C Lance 80% 90% 1976 26?
--
NSA food: Iran sells Nicaraguan drugs to White House through CIA, SOD & NRO.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Michael Trout (miket@brspyr1)~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
BRS Information Technologies, 1200 Rt. 7, Latham, N.Y. 12110 (518) 783-1161
"God forbid we should ever be 20 years without...a rebellion." Thomas Jefferson