cga66@ihlpy.att.com (Patrick V Kauffold) (08/30/90)
From: cga66@ihlpy.att.com (Patrick V Kauffold) An earlier analysis based on Dunnigan '88 gave a 15-1 advantage to the US in a defensive roll, slightly less for offensive. I tried a similar analysis, the "quantified judgement method of analysis" (QJMA), developed by T. N. Dupuy, which is considerably more microscopic and tedious. Actually, after a couple of hours I gave up, mainly because I found myself guessing a lot to plug numbers into his formulae. If you are interested, see his book, _Numbers, Prediction, and War_; he analyzes the 67 and 73 Arab- Israeli wars in considerable detail. The best he was able to come up with was a ratio of 2.64:1. On this basis, I suspect that an advantage of 15:1 is a bit on the optimistic side. My SWAG is that the US would be able to muster something less than 2:1 at current force levels (today). There is an interesting quote, however, in Dupuy's conclusions: "There was, and is, an Arab cultural tendency to allow emotion and wishful thinking to influence planning, evaluation, and operational leadership. "I have been criticized for this last generalization. Nevertheless, the Arab cultural tendencies toward wishful thinking, exaggeration, and the substitution of words for action are discussed at some length by anthropologist Dr. Raphael Patai in his book _The Arab Mind_. Noteworthy is Dr. Patai's quote from a Palestinian Arab: "Our hearts do the job of our brains. We exaggerate both in love and hate. We are emotional rather than coldly analytical. Honor is exaggerated at the expense of real need. We would like to see certain things and we think they are." Interestingly, in 1975, an Egyptian general spoke to me of this Arab cultural tendency in almost identical terms." I mention this because of the apparent WIDE gulf of cultural mis- understanding apparent in the whole situation. We (US) are very ignorant, on the whole, of ANY culture save perhaps Western Europe. In the field of politics (including war) we value most highly cold, logical thinking, give-and-take negotiation. Honor? Hell, no, it's the bottom line we value. At the same time, I suspect the Iraqui leadership is similarly ignorant of American culture (such that it is). Result: we have a bad situation made worse by the wide cultural differences which will make a diplomatic solution much more diffucult. action [mod.note: Followups here on the numerical analysis portion only. I'm considering the statements on the Arab mentality as "information only," and suggest followups on that topic be sent to whatever newsgroup seems appropriate. - Bill ]