military-request@att.att.com (09/27/90)
From: sun!sunburn.West!gtx!qip!john (John Moore)
I have recently read reports that Saddam Hussein may be willing to
launch terror attacks using weapons of mass destruction. Apparently
he feels that he would survive the resulting retaliation.
I am curious what the effects and countermeasures might be to such
attacks - either against troops or civilian targets.
[mod.note: Please keep this last point in mind for followups; we're
interested in technical issues here, not political ones. - Bill ]
The scenarios I have heard or thought up are:
(1) Creation of crude NW warheads by:
(A) using explosives to distribute rad-waste
(B) intentionally creating rad-waste by exposing selected compounds
(such as Iodine) to reactor neutron flux, and then using explosives
in a warhead to distribute these.
Use of these aginst troops.
(2) Launching Anthrax and Botulism spores at troops. I have read that
US troops are being vaccinated against Anthrax. How about botulism?
(3) Launching the same BW or NW weapons at the oil fields in order to drive
off the workers. How persistent would the effects be?
(4) Distributing the BW or NW agents from a light aircraft over a US city
such as Washington, DC. Such an aircraft could be rented or stolen by an
Iraqi or Palestinian terrorist already in the US, and the spores could
have been sent over here before the Kuwait invasion.
(5) Using persistent CW agents against the oil fields. How long would
it take to get the oil fields operational?
(6) Launching CW or BW or NW carrying SCUD missiles from
merchant ships near the US E or W coast. These could have been
sent out before the Kuwait invasion to evade the embargo.
Note: Scenarios 2,3,4 and 5 are in this week's Time magazine. Numbers 1 and
6 are creations of my own imagination.
--
John Moore HAM:NJ7E CAP:Thunderbird 381
Computer: ...{asuvax,mcdphx}!anasaz!john or anasaz!john@asuvax.eas.asu.edu
Voice: (602) 951-9326 (day or eve) FAX:602-861-7642
USnail: 7525 Clearwater Pkwy, Scottsdale, AZ 85253
Opinion: Support ALL of the bill of rights, INCLUDING the 2nd amendment!
Advice: Long palladium, short petroleum ;-)morgan@ms.uky.edu (Wes Morgan) (10/15/90)
From: Wes Morgan <morgan@ms.uky.edu> > >The scenarios I have heard or thought up are: > (1) Creation of crude NW warheads by: > (A) using explosives to distribute rad-waste > (B) intentionally creating rad-waste by exposing selected compounds > (such as Iodine) to reactor neutron flux, and then using explosives > in a warhead to distribute these. > Use of these aginst troops. This is almost feasible at this time. The problem would be in reinforcing the delivery systems to account for their new payload. The launch/control systems for most intermediate/long range missile run on a fairly narrow margin of error. I'm not sure if those systems could be effectively recalibrated for a rad-waste payload. > (2) Launching Anthrax and Botulism spores at troops. I have read that > US troops are being vaccinated against Anthrax. How about botulism? What's the time-to-live of these organisms without a host? I was under the impression that the anthrax vaccinations were to protect against problems caused by animal feces and corpses in the desert. This could be a hairy scenario; I'm not sure that the current US NBC equipment could handle a microorganic attack. This one would probably best be accomplished on a small scale, one raid at a time. I don't see the entire Saudi border being infused with anthrax. > (3) Launching the same BW or NW weapons at the oil fields in order to drive > off the workers. How persistent would the effects be? I've read of persistent chemical agents being "live" for periods of up to months *in concentration*. How long a disparate spray would last, I don't know. Rad-waste could be nasty in this context; a coating of, say, cobalt-60 or strontium-138 could stick around for quite a while, considering their long half-life. Iodine-131, which was mentioned again, has both a low roentgen count and relatively short half-life; that's why it is used in thyroid diagnoses in humans. > (4) Distributing the BW or NW agents from a light aircraft over a US city > such as Washington, DC. Such an aircraft could be rented or stolen by an > Iraqi or Palestinian terrorist already in the US, and the spores could > have been sent over here before the Kuwait invasion. Highly unlikely. I don't really believe that something as "hot" as rad-waste could be effectively smuggled into the US or Canada. Bioweapons could be another story, but I still think it's rather unlikely. I think events have shown that Hussein underestimated the world's response to his actions in the Gulf; I don't think he would have made plans such as this ahead of time. > (5) Using persistent CW agents against the oil fields. How long would > it take to get the oil fields operational? There are too many variables in the longevity equation for me to hazard a guess here. Sandstorms, rainstorms <they've been known to happen>, geo- thermal effects, and countermeasures could all negatively affect potency and longevity. Of course, we could always set all the outputs on fire for a week or so, just to sterilize the area....8) > (6) Launching CW or BW or NW carrying SCUD missiles from > merchant ships near the US E or W coast. These could have been > sent out before the Kuwait invasion to evade the embargo. Again, why would Iraq move such weapons that far away from the front? My gosh, the Soviets and Americans are holding joint strategy/intel sessions about this; could he really be that suicidal? I doubt it. If he were, he wouldn't be changing houses every 8 hours or so..... -- | Wes Morgan, not speaking for | {any major site}!ukma!ukecc!morgan | | the University of Kentucky's | morgan@engr.uky.edu | | Engineering Computing Center | morgan%engr.uky.edu@UKCC.BITNET | Lint is the compiler's only means of dampening the programmer's ego.
finn%isi.edu@usc.edu (Greg Finn) (10/16/90)
From: finn%isi.edu@usc.edu (Greg Finn) In article <1990Oct15.033902.13042@cbnews.att.com> morgan@ms.uky.edu (Wes Morgan) writes: > ... I don't really believe that something as "hot" as rad-waste > could be effectively smuggled into the US or Canada. ... That is not historically accurate. This is from memory, someone else can probably provide you with the attribution (try New Scientist or Technology Review first). Approximately two years ago a truck was stolen. In the truck was a safe filled with radioactive cobalt. The thieves sold the safe as scrap in Mexico, where it was smelted, resulting in the incorporation of the cobalt into reinforcing rods and cast table supports. Some workers at the smelter became quite ill from radiation poisoning. Product was shipped back into the USA by the truckload and detected only by a incredible stroke of luck, some of the rods were sent into a DOE plant where the exit detectors detected radioactivity coming into the plant. --- ggf
cbl@uihepa.hep.uiuc.edu (Chris Luchini) (10/17/90)
From: cbl@uihepa.hep.uiuc.edu (Chris Luchini) From: cbl@uihepa.hep.uiuc.edu (Chris Luchini) In article <1990Oct16.011136.11731@cbnews.att.com>, finn%isi.edu@usc.edu (Greg Finn) writes: > > >From: finn%isi.edu@usc.edu (Greg Finn) > >In article <1990Oct15.033902.13042@cbnews.att.com> morgan@ms.uky.edu (Wes Morgan) writes: > > >> ... I don't really believe that something as "hot" as rad-waste >> could be effectively smuggled into the US or Canada. ... > > That is not historically accurate. This is from memory, >someone else can probably provide you with the attribution (try New >Scientist or Technology Review first). > Approximately two years ago a truck was stolen. In the truck >was a safe filled with radioactive cobalt. The thieves sold the safe >as scrap in Mexico, where it was smelted, resulting in the >incorporation of the cobalt into reinforcing rods and cast table >supports. Some workers at the smelter became quite ill from radiation >poisoning. Product was shipped back into the USA by the truckload and >detected only by a incredible stroke of luck, some of the rods were >sent into a DOE plant where the exit detectors detected radioactivity >coming into the plant. It was more than 5 years ago, I was working at Los Alamos at the LAMPF (Los Alamos Meson Physics Facility). A worn out Cobalt 60 cancer treatment device was stolen off the loading dock of a Juarez hospital, sold to a junkyard. The pellets leaked out of the broken container, some were melted into some steel and sent across the river. A truck carying re-bar drove into LAMPF by mistake, and when leaving it set off the rad detectors. A smelter in El Paso detected some of this contaminated steel because they use gamma attenuation to measure the thickness of the hot iron as it goes into the rollers (Sir, We have a negative 4' thick iron ribbon..... :) ) Lots of people get very sick, I remember seeing a video shot of a ward filled with people with no hair (~50-100) One of two of the people who stole the stuff in the first place died. -Chris -------------------------------------------------------------------------- |I love my country, I fear its government |Are you registered to Vote? | | Chris Luchini/1110 W. Green/Urbana IL 61801/217-333-0505 | | Cluch@fnald.bitnet cbl@uihep.hep.uiuc.edu| | --------------------------------------------------------------------------
ntaib@silver.ucs.indiana.edu (Nur Iskandar Taib) (10/18/90)
From: ntaib@silver.ucs.indiana.edu (Nur Iskandar Taib) *> Approximately two years ago a truck was stolen. In the truck *>was a safe filled with radioactive cobalt. The thieves sold the safe *>as scrap in Mexico, where it was smelted, resulting in the *>incorporation of the cobalt into reinforcing rods and cast table *>supports. Some workers at the smelter became quite ill from radiation *>poisoning. Product was shipped back into the USA by the truckload and *>detected only by a incredible stroke of luck, some of the rods were *>sent into a DOE plant where the exit detectors detected radioactivity *>coming into the plant. Actually, it was worse. The cobalt-60 came from a piece of medical irradiation equipment sold to a group of Mexican doctors. The machine sat around unused until sold for scrap. The people at the junkyard cut open the cylinder and pel- lets of Co-60 were scattered all over the place where kids could get at them. Some got into the table legs and bars. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Iskandar Taib | The only thing worse than Peach ala Internet: NTAIB@AQUA.UCS.INDIANA.EDU | Frog is Frog ala Peach Bitnet: NTAIB@IUBACS !
cga66@ihlpy.att.com (Patrick V Kauffold) (10/19/90)
From: cga66@ihlpy.att.com (Patrick V Kauffold) > From: Wes Morgan <morgan@ms.uky.edu> > >> >>The scenarios I have heard or thought up are: > >> (2) Launching Anthrax and Botulism spores at troops. I have read that >> US troops are being vaccinated against Anthrax. How about botulism? Anthrax spores are fairly robust, but would last, at best, a few weeks in the desert. They are quite large, and precipitate out of the air rather quickly. In the soil, they are still dangerous if kicked up as dust and breathed. Pulmonary anthrax is the result. Nasty. The standard protective mask filters are fine enough to remove them. Botulism is not disseminated as an organism as it is anaerobic - can't live in air. The possible bio-weapon is the toxin, which is quite deadly in very small doses (don't know the LD-50 off-hand). It would have to be ingested, via food or some other mechanism. Not really too effective.
geoffm@EBay.Sun.COM (Geoff Miller) (10/19/90)
From: geoffm@EBay.Sun.COM (Geoff Miller) In article <1990Oct18.021322.7052@cbnews.att.com> ntaib@silver.ucs.indiana.edu (Nur Iskandar Taib) writes: >Actually, it was worse. The cobalt-60 >came from a piece of medical irradiation >equipment sold to a group of Mexican >doctors. The machine sat around unused >until sold for scrap. The people at the >junkyard cut open the cylinder and pel- >lets of Co-60 were scattered all over >the place where kids could get at them. >Some got into the table legs and bars. I think that two separate incidents might be confused here. I recall reading about an incident in Brazil where a piece of medical equipment containing cobalt ended up in a junkyard, and some of the local kids got into it and smeared the (powdered) cobalt on their bodies because they liked its pretty blue glow. This happened in the early Eighties. Geoff -+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+- Geoff Miller + + + + + + + + Sun Microsystems geoffm@purplehaze.sun.com + + + + + + + + Milpitas, California -+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
Bill Johnson (mwj@lanl.gov) (10/24/90)
From: Bill Johnson (mwj@lanl.gov) In article <1990Oct19.033205.14180@cbnews.att.com>, geoffm@EBay.Sun.COM (Geoff Miller) writes: > In article <1990Oct18.021322.7052@cbnews.att.com> ntaib@silver.ucs.indiana.edu (Nur Iskandar Taib) writes: > > >Actually, it was worse. The cobalt-60 > >came from a piece of medical irradiation > >equipment sold to a group of Mexican > >doctors. The machine sat around unused > >until sold for scrap. The people at the > >junkyard cut open the cylinder and pel- > >lets of Co-60 were scattered all over > >the place where kids could get at them. > >Some got into the table legs and bars. > > I think that two separate incidents might be confused here. I recall reading > about an incident in Brazil where a piece of medical equipment containing > cobalt ended up in a junkyard, and some of the local kids got into it and > smeared the (powdered) cobalt on their bodies because they liked its pretty > blue glow. This happened in the early Eighties. Well, you're both right -- partially. In the following I speak with a fair bit of professional expertise, but understand that I do *not* speak for Los Alamos National Laboratory; usual institutional disclaimers apply. The Mexican incident did involve a Co-60 source that had been decommissioned as a radiation source at a hospital. It wound up at a junkyard as a result of (I will use some euphemisms from here on ...) "mistakes" by various people, and when a load of junk went off to be melted down and recast into useful iron and steel, the Co-60 went with it. This is how the Co-60 wound up getting worked into rebar, etc. It was discovered purely by a fluke when a truck carrying the radioactive rebar rolled through Los Alamos en route to a town in northwestern New Mexico. The driver got lost and pulled into LAMPF (the medium-energy research facility here) to ask directions. LAMPF, being a particle accelerator, has various kinds of health-physics instrumentation around, including a portal monitor at the entrance (designed by my group, BTW) to check for contamination on vehicles leaving the site. When the truck went through the gate on the way out, it set off this monitor, and good solid detective work did the rest. This happened around 1983. There was indeed a similar Brazilian incident, around 1987 I think, that Miller describes more or less accurately. (Minor quibble: that one involved Cs-137 rather than Co-60.) That incident was more severe in that there were some fatalities from the radiation exposure (no fatalities occurred in the Juarez incident, at least that I'm aware of) and cleaning up the contamination was a fairly serious undertaking, because the radioactive material had been dispersed. (In the Juarez incident, "cleanup" basically involved removing the radioactive rebar from any structures it would have been built into; as the cobalt was in the form of little pellets, as Taib points out, collecting it was not much of a problem.) The relevance of either of these incidents to the use of radwaste by Iraq (or any other potential terrorists...) is pretty low, for several reasons, and I hope that Bill will pronounce this subject dead. For starters, the amount of radioactivity involved in these incidents is *far* lower than would be available for nefarious purposes, which has implications both in scope (for all the hoopla, the number of people exposed in these two cases wasn't very large) and counter measures (all else being equal, the more radiation, the easier it is to detect). I don't think it's appropriate to speculate on how a "bad guy" might use radwaste as a weapon; it certainly isn't appropriate for me to do so, and I'm not going to. I recommend followups on the Juarez and Brazil incidents be directed to sci.physics (where they have been discussed before) and that the subject be allowed to die out in sci.military. Bill Johnson | "A man should never be ashamed to own he Los Alamos National Laboratory | has been in the wrong, which is but saying, Los Alamos, New Mexico USA | in other words, that he is wiser to-day !cmcl2!lanl!mwj (mwj@lanl.gov) | than he was yesterday." (A. Pope)
howard@cos.com (Howard C. Berkowitz) (10/30/90)
From: howard@cos.com (Howard C. Berkowitz)
A note from memory on the survivability of anthrax spores used
as a weapon --
There was an Allied test of anthrax (called Agent N) in approximately
1942 on one of the uninhabited Scottish isles (Surtsey?). At least
in the 70's, it was quite hazardous to dig the soil there without
a full protective suit.
_Bacillus anthracis_ is an aerobic spore-forming organism. Oxygen
doesn't hurt it; it likes it (as opposed to anaerobes such as the
_Clostridia_ species responsible for tetanus, botulism, and gas
gangrene). Spores are generally not destroyed by boiling; the routine
lab sterilization routine calls for 20 minutes steam at 15 psi,
with a temperature of 121 degrees Celsius. Dry heat is much less
efficient than moist for sterilization, and is rarely used;
when it is, it is in the 250 degree Celsius range.
Desert conditions alone are insufficient for a quick kill of
anthrax spores.
--
howard@cos.com OR {uunet, decuac, sun!sundc, hadron, hqda-ai}!cos!howard
(703) 883-2812 [W] (703) 998-5017 [H]
DISCLAIMER: Opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the Corporation
for Open Systems, its members, or any standards body.tgg@otter.hpl.hp.com (Tom Gardner) (11/01/90)
From: tgg@otter.hpl.hp.com (Tom Gardner) |There was an Allied test of anthrax (called Agent N) in approximately |1942 on one of the uninhabited Scottish isles (Surtsey?). At least |in the 70's, it was quite hazardous to dig the soil there without |a full protective suit. It was on Gruinard. The army recently "disinfected" it and pronounced the island safe. I make no comment on the validity of this assesment
Mr David Morning <dam@cs.glasgow.ac.uk> (11/01/90)
From: Mr David Morning <dam@cs.glasgow.ac.uk> In article <1990Oct30.051016.5118@cbnews.att.com> howard@cos.com (Howard C. Berkowitz) writes: > >There was an Allied test of anthrax (called Agent N) in approximately >1942 on one of the uninhabited Scottish isles (Surtsey?). At least The island involved was Gruinard Island about a mile off the west coast of Scotland. Some sheep were left on the island to test the effect. It killed everythingSubsequent to this many attempts were made to disinfect the Island including burning it and removing about 3" of topsoil from the entire island but to no avail. The island was marked on OS maps as "DANGER ZONE" for years and tests were carried out to check on the anthrax spores. They were still there in the early 70's but interestingly the rabbit population had become immune to the anthrax by then. A full scale attempt to clear the island of anthrax was made in the early 80s. This involved pouring ZILLIONS of gallons of formaldehyde all over the island. It was finally given a clean(?) bill of health in 1988 and sold to a trust who are now trying to decide what to do with it. I spent this summer up that way. It's a real pretty island with a nice quite beach on the mainland facing it. I went on the beach but I didn't fancy going over to the island. (Would you?????) Dave (the Pict) Morning