jepullia@copper.ucs.indiana.edu (John Pulliam) (11/15/90)
From: jepullia@copper.ucs.indiana.edu (John Pulliam) [mod.note: This was apparently carried over from alt.desert-shield. I'll remind readers that that group does not yet exist at my home site, so I am unable to crosspost to it. - Bill ] As a follow-up to Dave Emery's report on planned additions to US forces in the Gulf region, here is the current US Army force list for Desert Shield (modified to include planned deployments). Dave and I worked together on this. Note that there are still a few open questions (like which separate and NG brigades round out which divisions, which stay separate, etc.). Dave's chasing down some of that, I'm looking into some other stuff, and time will give us the final answer on all. III Corps HQ and Corps Artillery VII Corps HQ (and Corps Artillery?? Probably so) XVIII Airborne Corps HQ and Corps Troops (Corps Arty, 20th Engineer Brigade, etc.) 1st Armored Division 2nd Armored Division (including Fwd brigade slice from Europe) 3rd Armored Division 1st Cavalry Division (rounded out with _____?) 1st Infantry Division (rounded out with _____?) 24th Infantry Division (complete with roundout bde, the 48th Mech from GA, or keeping the 197th Sep Inf Bde? See notes, below) 82nd Airborne Division 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault) 2nd Armored Cavalry Regiment 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment 48th Infantry Brigade, GA National Guard (roundout for 24th ID) 155th Armored Brigade, MS National Guard (roundout for ?) 197th Infantry Brigade (Sep. again, once the 48th arrives?) 256th Infantry Brigade, LA National Guard (roundout for 5th ID, which is not currently scheduled for deployment) [One each of these will go to the 1st Cav Div, the 1st Inf Div, and the 24th Inf Div as roundout Bdes. I suspect the marraiges will be: 1st Cav with 155th Arm Bde, 1st ID with 256th Inf Bde, 24th ID with 48th Inf Bde, and 197th back to being Separate] Unspecified Special Operation Command units, probably to include at least the 5th Special Forces Group (any Ranger Bats? Dave and I both suspect the entire Ranger Regiment is there, but that is not confirmed here) Additional notes from Dave: --Some notes on the new forces: -- We have elements from 3 different parts of the Army: -- Europe (1st and 3rd AD, 2 AD Fwd) -- CONUS Active (stateside) (1st Mech (-)) -- National Guard (155 Arm Bde (MSARNG), 48 Mech Bde (GAARNG) -- and 256 Mech Bde (LAARNG)) -- The 48 Mech is the roundout brigade for 24 Mech Div. Currently, -- their place is being held by the 197 Separate Infantry Brigade -- (from Ft. Benning). Once the 48 Bde is in country, do you replace -- 197 SIB with 48 Bde, completing the 24 Mech as originally -- planned, or do you leave the 197 SIB in place as they're now integrated -- into the 24 Mech for this operation? Good question. I suspect they'll -- pull the 197 out of 24 Mech, because 197 SIB is designed to be a -- standalone brigade, and would better suited to the brigade -- reserve role. Besides, there'll be a lot of political pressure -- for the Army to use the roundout brigades as they're supposed to -- be used. The LAARNG Brigade is the roundout brigade for the 5th -- Mech, which is the more combat-ready of the 2 Mech divisions left -- stateside. To me, this strongly implies that the 5th Mech will -- be the next to go, and will be married up with the 256 Bde. -- -- 2AD Fwd is used to working in Europe, while 2AD is more -- CONUS oriented. I'm not sure how smoothly 2AD FWD will integrate -- back into 2AD, but they'll give it a try... -- -- 1st Mech is also short a brigade in Europe. Since the MSARNG -- brigade doesn't have a roundout unit (that I know of...), I'll -- give them to 1st Mech Div, saving the LAARNG unit for the 5th -- Mech Div once they arrive. -- -- 8th Mech and 1st Mech Forward are the first two units expected -- return from Europe. One might expect that they'd be more likely to -- redeploy to the sands. However, they're all packed up for an -- administrative move, and reorienting them would cause major screwups. -- -- Don't forget that it'll take some time to get all of these new -- forces to the desert. This is all heavy stuff, and all of those -- tanks, etc, have to be packed up, moved to port, loaded on ships, -- sailed to Saudi Arabia, offloaded and unpacked before they'll be ready -- to go. My guess is at least 6 weeks before you see significant changes. -- -- Also remember that the NG units are mobilizing to Fort Irwin for -- training and evaluation. If they're not up to snuff, they won't go. This assemblage represents roughly 50% of the active Army's combat power (if you look strictly at heavy forces, the percentage is considerably higher). Two questions flow directly from the above: 1. What organizational structure will be established to control this war party (the answer to this question will obviously include US Marines and allied units as well as the above, and will reflect to a great degree tactical and operational considerations)? Dave has one possible answer to this: --At first glance, we have the following: -- XVIII Abn Corps -- 82 Abn, 101 Abn, 24 Mech (+197 SIB) -- III Corps -- 1st Cav, 2nd Armored, 3 ACR -- VII Corps -- 1st Armored, 3rd Armored, 2 ACR -- ?? -- 1st Mech (-), MSARNG Armored Bde, LAARNG Mech Bde, -- GAARNG MechBde --Now, I'd look for the following organization: -- "Heavy Army" (4 Armored Div's, 2 Mech Div's, 2 ACR's, 1 SIB) -- III Corps -- 1st Cav[+?], 2nd Armored (+2AD Fwd), 3 ACR, 24 Mech (incl -- 48 Bde, GAARNG), 197 SIB -- VII Corps -- 1st Armored, 3rd Armored, 2 ACR, 1st Mech (+MSARNG -- Armored Bde) -- "Light Army" (2 Army light divisions, 2 USMC MEF's) -- XVIII Corps -- 82 Abn Div, 101 Abn Div -- USMC Forces -- 1 MEF, 2 MEF 2. What are our strategic reserves? I can start on an answer to this (with help from Dave): US _Active_ Army Strategic Reserves (including units dedicated to other missions): II Corps HQ V Corps HQ and Corps Troops (but dedicated to Europe) IX Corps HQ (but dedicated to Pacific) 2nd Infantry Division (but dedicated to Korea) 3rd Infantry Division (Mech)(but dedicated to Europe) 4th Infantry Division (Mech) 5th Infantry Division (Mech)(-) 6th Infantry Division (Light) 7th Infantry Division (Light) 8th Infantry Division (Mech) (but dedicated to Europe) 9th Infantry Division (but deactivating) 10th Infantry Division (Light) 25th Infantry Division (Light) [Note: most of these div.s require roundout] 11th Armored Cavalry Regiment (but dedicated to Europe) 177th Armored Brigade (but dedicated to the NTC) 194th Armored Brigade (Separate) All currently-undeployed SOCOM units All currently-undeployed support and service support units Given the above, the assumption that war will erupt before any units currently deployed rotate out (as Dave points out, a safe assumption given Sec. Cheney's recent statement that no units will be rotated any time soon), and the further assumption that _additional_ US forces will be needed to get the job done, it is probable that the 4th and/or 5th IDs, plus the 194th Arm Bde, would be tagged next for any augmentation deployment. --The next level of reserves is 5th Mech and 194 SAB --Since they've mobilized the 5th Mech roundout brigade, my guess is --they're next. A final observation about our strategic reserves of ground forces: there aren't a whole heck of a lot of heavy units left back (active army)! If things do get worse instead of better, and/or the situation drags out for a long period of time without a decrease in tensions, I would expect to see one or more National Guard heavy divisions (like the 49th or 50th Armored) being activated in toto. --Another option would be to move the light divisions to Germany, --freeing up 3rd Mech and 2 ACR for deployment to the desert. This --wouldn't be a credible deterrent to the Russians, but would fulfill the --post-cold-war requirement for a U.S. presence to keep things "calm --in Europe". Comments about the above? Allan and others, can you provide something similar for the Marines (as Dave said, "are there any [active] marines left in the US")? John Pulliam ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Hope this helps a little, at least for the US forces!!!! Daniel Ladd US Army ROTC Carnegie Mellon University/University of Pittsburgh All views expressed here are my own and do not reflect the views of the US Army or DoD. All info is from unclassified sources.