[sci.military] first strike

BRANTLEP%ARIZVM1.BITNET@CUNYVM.CUNY.EDU (Peter Brantley) (01/10/91)

From:         Peter Brantley <BRANTLEP%ARIZVM1.BITNET@CUNYVM.CUNY.EDU>
  Why does everyone so sheepishly assume in their wargaming that *we*
determine the time and place?  If today's meeting does not go well, or
the situation deteriorates, it seems more likely that Saddam would let
loose with everything he has.  Let his scuds go: chemical or bio the
American troops, hit Tel Aviv, inflict max casualties.  Sure, you risk
nuclear retaliation from Israel, but war's a gamble.  Throws us off
guard, creates a tremendous amount of confusion, and how long could
Bush keep us in there if we had so many casualties.  Iraq, ie., should
strike first.  Israeli entrance would dissolve the Arab coalition.

  By the way, which direction *are* the prevailing winds?

  Finally, should would love hearing a few details on our missle
warning systems in place.  Do AWCS cover this, or does ground radar?


Peter Brantley           ||  Bitnet    Brantlep at Arizvm1
Department of Sociology  ||  Internet  Brantlep at Arizvm1.Ccit.Arizona.Edu
University of Arizona    ||  ICBMnet   Longitude 110W 057, Latitude 032N 014
Tucson, AZ  85721        ||  ATTnet    (602) 621-3804
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pspod@kira.lerc.nasa.gov ( ) (01/12/91)

From: pspod@kira.lerc.nasa.gov ( )
In article <1991Jan10.025410.3592@cbnews.att.com> BRANTLEP%ARIZVM1.BITNET@CUNYVM.CUNY.EDU (Peter Brantley) writes:
>
>  Why does everyone so sheepishly assume in their wargaming that *we*
>determine the time and place?  If today's meeting does not go well, or
>the situation deteriorates, it seems more likely that Saddam would let
>loose with everything he has.  Let his scuds go: chemical or bio the


Why should Saddam risk war by starting it?  He will wait until the U.N.
attacks otherwise he will be blamed for starting it and the the opponents
to war will have difficulty in blaming the US for starting the war. Saddam
knows that his enemies facing him are very reluctant or extremely restricted
in starting a war and that a war will destroy him.