T8M-KAUP@FINTUVM.BITNET (Asko Kauppi) (12/11/88)
I agree with Karl Denninger about the next few years: it's going to be some
competition when the NeXT, the other Unix systems, the MacIntosh and the
future Amigas, not to forget the possibly-working OS/2, struggle to get as
big a share of their common market as possible. It will be a joy to watch them
do that.
Yesterday, after having read the articles in this newsgroup, I began
speculating the situation of the various companies. Will they survive the
next round? Here are some of my thoughts. Please comment them, 'cos I *love*
a nice discussion (/argue).
1) The Machintosh family
I still cannot help being impressed by the quality of the Mac II colour
screens. It seems that the Apple is doing everything two years in advance
to its competitors: the mouse, windowing, 3"1/2 disks, the HyperCard...
I can only respect the amount of money the company spends on ergonomical
research. The problem is, can they prevent others from utilizing their
research work. No, not in the long run they can't, and they shouldn't.
They have the honour of being the first in a lot, but they also have to pay
for it. Nevertheless, I like the direction they are leading the microcomputer
society to. I KNOW others will follow.
2) The OS/2, IBM and the clones
I have serious doubts about the OS/2. Not that it's that bad an idea
initially, but when will it be ready? I know there's the 1.0 shipping already,
but so what. What can you actually do with it? Install? That's about it.
The Presentation Manager is said to be quite like Windows/386. Poor us.
I have used the Mac and the Amiga, and shortly the ST GEM. I like them,
especially the Mac Finder, and I KNOW I DO NOT like Windows. Don't know why,
I guess it's just the feel. It isn't as intuitive as the others.
I also have doubts about the software side for the OS/2. Will the current
MS-DOS programmers be able to make *working* systems for a multitasking
environment. I do doubt, as it took at least two years to get reasonably
unguruing (errorless) programs made for the Amiga. Another question is,
will the programmers be able to fully utilize the potential(?) of the 386
and the OS/2...
Then there are the problems with the Micro Channel Architechture... Will the
Big Blue licence it or not... Will the clonemakers unite and fight back the
Big Blue... Who will win... I guess the OS/2 people will fight with each other
the next couple of years, leaving the arena clear for Macs and Unix to take
over. I *would* really like to see Unix as the operating system for the 90's.
3) The Amiga line
The Amiga is "the first home computer with a dedicated, up-to-date operating
system as its standard OS." (I don't recall who said that, but I agree.)
There were the gurus, but that's mostly over and out. And, the Macs and the ST
have their "bombs" as well. So there should be no arguing that the system
wouldn't work. It does.
Slowly the Amiga line is getting software it deserves, and there are plans
for 68020/30, transputers etc. so I guess the future should be safe. Somehow
I just have the feeling that the company doesn't *really* care for this
particular line of products. Perhaps the 1.3 OS will change that feel.
I sure welcome the FastFileSystem.
Although Commodore seems to be aiming at the higher end of the PC market,
with A2500 about to be released (or: released already?) and the transputers,
I believe the Amiga will remain a home machine, above all. I hope it will
successfully be able to coexist with the UNIX world that I hope will rule the
next decade.
4) The UNIX systems: Sun, Apollo etc.
As the Amiga line is shifting upwards to the higher end of the PC users,
the UNIX seems to be coming "down" from the workstation cathegory to the
PC one. I recall Personal Computer World giving an article about "the first
Personal UNIX Computer" or something alike. I sure liked the looks of it.
As for the software, there will be no such problems as the OS/2 has to put
up with. All you need is ready, and no "incompatibility box" is needed.
All the same, the price for these systems will still, I guess, be too high
for the "normal" user to reach.
5) The NeXT (finally...)
Reading the Byte article about the NeXT machine gave me the same butterflies
that the first Amiga notation couple of years ago did. Me want one|
Actually, I have to go to the army first, and that's OK, 'cos I believe the
system won't be ready before the early 90's. I hope Steve Jobbs still has
some of his Apple-selling money left to spend on the project. It will sure
be worth it. But it's quite a gamble, most of all, because it bepends so
much on the developing of the magneto-optical disk technology. Yes, I guess
it works already, but in the laboratory... It's something quite else than
making tens of thousands of them. Furthermore, how many times can one write
such a disk's surface. I recall having read about hundreds of times...
Is it enough? I'd prefer thousands of quaranteed read-writes. Perhaps some
of my misbelief is based on my experiences of the CD players and their disk
quality. The systems are marketed as full-error-cheking-perfect-sound-replay
machines, but what's the truth. Even a conventional record player doesn't
make so many "jumps". I am disappointed.
Anyway, the "cube" seems allright, *if* it works. The price is so unbelievable
I won't comment it at all. I guess the NeXT will find it's place somewhere
between the "upper" UNIX systems and the home-Amiga population. Where are the
Macs then? Somewhere at the same level, perhaps competing more with the higher
end of the market, because of their high price and colour ability. ( Well, who
knows what the prices will be at the 90's, anyway?) Where will the OS/2
machines be? Either in the companies' developing cellars fighting for which
architechture to use or in other companies' offices. I see them mainly as
machines for the commercial sector, whereas the UNIX will take over (has
already) the education sector, together with Macs. I hope the 386 machines
will be able to work in UNIX, too. That would easily make OS/2 perfectly
unneccessary for everyone.
6) The Black Horse (I'm not finished yet..)
Then there's the possibility that something totally unpredictable happens.
The transputers are one question mark, but I guess their place will be more
helping other machines on add-in-cards than actually making their revolution
themselves. They are the slaves other processors will make do the dirty work.
But, nevertheless, we should not overlook projects like the Atari supported
ABAQ, which try to create a solely-transputer operating environment. Some of
Tim King's (did I remember it right - I mean the man behind AmigaDOS) ideals
are truly magnificient: binding all the workstations of the network together
so that *any* of them can utilize the whole system's processing power, for
example. Well, that's going to be made in the future NeXTs as well, isn't it.
I hope the above woke *some* thoughts about the microcomputings future in you.
Please share them with me (reply) or with us all (netpost). I feel this is
a subject we should discuss, 'cos *now* is the time to give companies ideas
about what *we* want of the computers of the 90's.
Thank you for reading this far,
Asko Kauppi
Student of Physics & Computer Science
Turku University / Finland
T8M-KAUP AT FINTUVM.BITNET
"Don't worry about tomorrow, tomorrow will worry about itself."
Matt. 6:34