declan@portia.Stanford.EDU (Declan McCullagh) (08/20/90)
Taken without permission from today's (8/19) San Francisco Examiner's Business Section: --- WORLD WAITS FOR NEXT TO FULFILL ITS PROMISE By Bart Ziegler, Associated Press Some experts are starting to wonder whether there is much of a "next" for Steven Jobs' new computer. Launched with splashy publicity in October 1988, the NeXT machine was supposed to revolutionize personal computers, like the Apple that Jobs and former partner Steve Wozniak hatched in a garage in 1976, and the Macintosh that Jobs gave the world in 1984. One of the industry's most innovative creators, Jobs called the NeXT the "best computer in the world." Nearly two years later, NeXT Computer Inc. has hardly made a dent. Only a few thousand of the sleek black boxes have been sold, and the NeXT has failed to generate great interest among corporate computer users, analysts say. "The fundamental problem with NeXT is that they were just born at the wrong time," said Esther Dyson, who publishes the computer industry newsletter Release 1.0. "It's just one more desktop computer," she said. "The next new revolutionary advance is not going to happen on the desktop," but on the new hand-held computers that recognize handwriting, she predicts. Others say the NeXT machine may be too advanced for its own good. For example, it stores data on a state-of-the-art optical disk, which offers vastly more capacity than conventional magnetic "floppy" disks. But optical disks are much slower at retrieving data. Jobs has since offered a faster magnetic hard disk as an option, but still no floppy drive. "Although the machine is exciting intellectually and important from a computer architecture point of view, most customers have work to do. They don't get off on computer technology," said Richard Shaffer, the editor of Technologic Computer Letter, another trade letter. An additional problem for NeXT is the machine's unique operating system, the base layer of software that controls internal computer functions. It makes the NeXT incompatible with other computers at a time when the industry is moving toward interchangeable systems. Software must be specially tailored for the NeXT -- it can't use popular off-the-shelf software such as Lotus 1-2-3. That creates one of its most serious dilemmas: Because relatively little software exists to run on the NeXT, it has a hard time attracting customers. Because there are few customers, software developers are reluctant to write programs for it. "At the moment there still is no major application for which the NeXT machine is the best solution, or even more important, the only solution," Shaffer said. NeXT's critics also say the machine is too expensive -- $9,995 to the general public and $6,495 to universities. It didn't help that the operating system was delayed until almost a year after the computer was unveiled, they add. Jobs, who founded NeXT in 1985 after leaving Apple Computer Inc. in a management dispute, said in January his detractors would be impressed by the fledgling company's performance in six months. Since then, NeXT announced what apparently is its largest contract, the sale of acout 300 machines to William Morris Agency Inc., the Beverly Hills-based talent firm. The company said it chose NeXT because of its ability to store videos of entertainers as well as text-based information. But the industry is still waiting for delivery on Jobs' promise. "I would say there's a certain degree of disappointment," said Beverly Bird, a spokeswoman for Businessland, a computer store chain that signed an exclusive deal with NeXT in March 1989 to retail its machines domestically. At the time, Businessland predicted sales would hit $100 million in the first year. But sales have fallen short. International Data Corp., a high-tech research firm, estimates that fewer than 7,000 NeXTs were sold as of June. NeXT is privately owned and therefore is not obligated to disclose sales or finances. Jobs declined to be interviewed for this article. Bird said the $100,000,000 estimate was based on the availability of NeXT's operating system and applications software. Potential customers are still awaiting ground-breaking software that will entice them to buy the machine, she said. [Rest of article deleted] --- It is educational to note - despite the increasingly interesting applications and growing availability of software and hardware for the machine - that NeXT still hasn't made any significant inroads into the corporate marketplace. Sigh. Perhaps in a few months... After all, didn't someone "in the know" post about an expected product announcement by NeXT in a month or two? $-) -Declan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Olympic Technologies / Registered NeXT Developers \ declan@portia.stanford.edu ------------------------------------------------------------------------------
bruce@atncpc.UUCP (Bruce Henderson) (08/21/90)
I would expect NeXT and all of it's 3rd party loonies to address all of the major issues rather soon (maybe the next 2 months if we are lucky....) The areas they will attack would be: 1) Performance 2) Color 3) Price 4) Application Software Besides, take heart everyone! It's not like we NeXT die hards haven't had 20 Metric Tonnes of gloom and doom already! What's annother bash or two? It rebuttal to this cheezy article, There have been several major sales recently, including William Morris Agency in Hollywood, where the machine has a strong cult following. Several other "big sites" are looking to buy a bunch, but are waiting for the above 4 items. We know because we are beta testing in some of them. By the way, I'd put the number sold to be "over 15,000" personally. This is because my machine is serial number 2454, and was purchased 1yr and 5 months ago. The ones we just recently obtained have serial numbers like 16233. You figure it out. Bruce Henderson User Interface KGB Ashton Tate NeXTeam
andyk@kermit.UUCP (Andy Klapper) (08/21/90)
>By the way, I'd put the number sold to be "over 15,000" >personally. This is because my machine is serial number >2454, and was purchased 1yr and 5 months ago. The ones >we just recently obtained have serial numbers like 16233. > >You figure it out. At my last job for a company that manufactured analytical instruments I discovered a little secret. The serial numbers were picked at random from a list of available numbers. Each number was unique, but it had nothing at all to do with when that machine was made, or even how many were made. (They kept a log so that given any serial number THEY could figure out when it came off the line). This trick was done to prevent exactly what you were doing, trying to find out how many units were made. -- The Stepstone Corporation Andy Klapper 75 Glen Rd. andyk@stepstone.com Sandy Hook, CT 06482 uunet!stpstn!andyk (203) 426-1875 fax (203)270-0106
gft_robert@gsbacd.uchicago.edu (08/22/90)
----------- In article <322@atncpc.UUCP>, bruce@atncpc.UUCP (Bruce Henderson) writes... [...] >By the way, I'd put the number sold to be "over 15,000" >personally. This is because my machine is serial number >2454, and was purchased 1yr and 5 months ago. The ones >we just recently obtained have serial numbers like 16233. > >You figure it out. As someone pointed out several months ago, it is unlikely that Next would simply number their computers starting with 1 and counting up from there. Possible, but unlikely. Why? Well, for the reason given above: _everyone_ -- including competitors -- would know exactly how many machines had been sold. Not exactly information a company -- particularly a company not living up to sales expectations -- would want to broadcast to the world. Disclaimer: I have absolutely no inkling of how many Next's have been sold. Could be more, could be fewer. Robert ============================================================================ = gft_robert@gsbacd.uchicago.edu * generic disclaimer: * "It's more fun to = = * all my opinions are * compute" = = * mine * -Kraftwerk = ============================================================================
rca@cs.brown.edu (Ronald C.F. Antony) (08/23/90)
>>By the way, I'd put the number sold to be "over 15,000" >>personally. This is because my machine is serial number >>2454, and was purchased 1yr and 5 months ago. The ones >>we just recently obtained have serial numbers like 16233. >As someone pointed out several months ago, it is unlikely that Next would >simply number their computers starting with 1 and counting up from there. >Possible, but unlikely. Why? Well, for the reason given above: _everyone_ -- >including competitors -- would know exactly how many machines had been sold. >Not exactly information a company -- particularly a company not living up to >sales expectations -- would want to broadcast to the world. Well this might be true, but: as noone knows what numbering system they use, they might just as well use a sequential numbering system, as because of above considerations, noone can rely on it :-) This is the old game of who thinks that someone thinks that some other said, ... Ronald ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ "The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable man." Bernhard Shaw | rca@cs.brown.edu or antony@browncog.bitnet
bruce@atncpc.UUCP (Bruce Henderson) (08/24/90)
In article <1990Aug21.192315.21087@midway.uchicago.edu>, gft_robert@gsbacd.uchicago.edu writes: > ----------- > As someone pointed out several months ago, it is unlikely that Next would > simply number their computers starting with 1 and counting up from there. > Possible, but unlikely. Why? Well, for the reason given above: _everyone_ -- > including competitors -- would know exactly how many machines had been sold. > Not exactly information a company -- particularly a company not living up to > sales expectations -- would want to broadcast to the world. > Yes, It does seem unlikely, but Ashton - Tate has been getting machines at a steady trickle. And the serial numbers do seem to be following that pattern (we get 1 or 2 every month). I think 15,000 to 20,000 is a liberal estimate. Probably 12,000 to 15,000. Bruce Henderson
bob@MorningStar.Com (Bob Sutterfield) (08/29/90)
In article <1990Aug19.191912.24613@portia.Stanford.EDU> declan@portia.Stanford.EDU (Declan McCullagh) writes:
By Bart Ziegler, Associated Press
...
An additional problem for NeXT is the machine's unique operating
system, the base layer of software that controls internal computer
functions. It makes the NeXT incompatible with other computers at
a time when the industry is moving toward interchangeable systems.
Software must be specially tailored for the NeXT -- it can't use
popular off-the-shelf software such as Lotus 1-2-3.
The NeXT is incompatible with MS-DOS IBM-compatible Personal
Computers, and that's a Good Thing (aesthetically, if not yet in the
market). Their use of (something with the flavor of) UNIX puts the
cube in a different class of competitors, and a different class of
interchangeability.
PeeCee myopia strikes. Sigh...smithw@hamblin.math.byu.edu (William V. Smith) (08/29/90)
Hmmmm... Is this quote (Bart Ziegler, AP) to be regarded as evidence of the fact that the business/computing infrastructure is being infiltrated by visitors from other worlds... Ziegler.... where have I heard that name before.... Newsfolks from Hell?