[comp.sys.next] 15,000 orders---inflated?

barry@pico.math.ucla.edu (Barry Merriman) (09/21/90)

I was talking to our NeXT outlet here at UCLA, and they suggested
that the 15,000 orders for NeXTStations is inflated.
(However, our local outlet---the UCLA bookstore (UCLA-BS)---is not real
big on NeXTs anyway...)

I was told that originally NeXT said they wouldn't deal with UCLA-BS unless 
they order 50 machines for the coming year. UCLA-BS said no way,
based on past sales, and agreed to order 10. (Way to go, UCLA-BS :-)
NeXT said ok, _as long as_ UCLA-BS agreed to sign a contract
stating that they intended to order a total of 50 during the year.
Apparently, UCLA-BS signed this, even though thats definitely
not their intention. (I gues UCLA-BS doesn't expect big sales; given
their marketing strategies, I bet they can achieve this...:-)

Anyway, the bottom line is that NeXT may have coerced distributers
into promising to order more machines, so that Steve could
pull out the big 15,000 figure at the gala. So, we're not 
out of the woods, yet.



--
Barry Merriman
UCLA Dept. of Math
UCLA Inst. for Fusion and Plasma Research
barry@math.ucla.edu (Internet)

melling@cs.psu.edu (Michael D Mellinger) (09/21/90)

Why doesn't NeXT offer machines w/o the 105 Mb drive and sell them for
$500 less?  A network of NeXT's would only require the 40 meg hard
drive for swapping on each machine.  I think it's still going to be a
hard sell for NeXT on college campus'.  The Mac is entrenched(Apple is
hard at work unloading SE's on unsuspecting college students at PSU),
and the PC just won't go away.  Besides, the NeXT's are still priced
out of the average college student's market.  In fact they are still
priced out of the home user's market.  Networks of NeXTs on college
campuses and in corporate America are where they are going to sell, so
the 105 meg. drives won't be needed.

-Mike

peterd@opus.cs.mcgill.ca (Peter Deutsch) (09/21/90)

In article <382@kaos.MATH.UCLA.EDU>, barry@pico.math.ucla.edu (Barry Merriman) writes:
> I was talking to our NeXT outlet here at UCLA, and they suggested
> that the 15,000 orders for NeXTStations is inflated.
> (However, our local outlet---the UCLA bookstore (UCLA-BS)---is not real
> big on NeXTs anyway...)

For what it's worth, the McGill order announced the same
day as the big splash is real and nobody coerced us to
order any special amount. We spent as much as we could
afford for as many as we could afford, but nobody told our
store they _had_ to buy any (I know as I was directly
involved in getting the contract signed here at McGill and
am providing software support on campus. I am in far more
frequent contact with NeXT than our store is).

I gather a number of Computing Centre or Computing Store
types dislike NeXT, and I guess this has been a source of
amazement for the company. I put it down to the fact that
these people are used to a fair amount of pampering, NeXT
is a small company with radically different ideas on
service and distribution and originally NeXT thought
people would be demanding machines so were a little
arrogant (he said understatedly). I hope NeXT have
learned something in the past year. If not, they could
still have trouble.

> Anyway, the bottom line is that NeXT may have coerced distributers
> into promising to order more machines, so that Steve could
> pull out the big 15,000 figure at the gala. So, we're not 
> out of the woods, yet.


On the other hand, it doesn't matter how many of us bought
last month, now it's announced how many of _you_ will be
buying one? 15,000 is still a drop in the bucket compared
to PC or Mac sales, or even SLCs from Sun. I happen to think
they've licked their exposure on hardware (for at least six
months :-), now they have to work on their software. There
were a lot of products announced and I just received my
new Fall, 1990 Software and Peripherals catalogue and it's
definitely thicker. Also, there are a lot more
"Availability: Now" entries, so things are looking up here,
too. Heck, I even have to withdraw my comment made a few
nights ago about waiting for Cobol. It's apparently
available ans shipping now! GACK!!!


So, the big exposure, as far as I'm concerned is in
loosing their defining edge as they move away from the
idea of "all that bundled software" to a more select
package. This will encourage more developers and aid
updating, but NeXT will loose one of those things that
differentiated them. They were the "bundled solutions"
company.

My suggestion to address this might be of interest here,
and I'd like to see it discussed. I have suggested to a
couple of NeXT people and they've promised to "pass it on"
(sort of like "check's in the mail" ;-)

The idea is to sell each machine with a set number of
"software credits" and the user can choose whatever he or
she wants from the list of announced products. Each
package is worth a certain number of credits, the packages
are chosen when the machine is ordered and the packages
either installed on the release disk (more possible when
the optical was the medium of choice) or the order sent to
the vendor and the package mailed on.

The user should just get a card that has all the packages
grouped by function: Databases, Text Processors, etc.
No one vendor is shortchanged, extra credits would be
available for a price, users still see buying a NeXT as a
bundle of solutions, not the packaging problem that any
ordinary workstation is.

So wadda ya tink? Will this fly? Should it? You heard it
here first. I don't want a lot of credit (but get me my
colour machines, NOW! :-)


			- peterd


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+-------+ 	Peter Deutsch		McGill University
| u # u |	peterd@cs.mcgill.ca	School of Computer Science
|/\/\/\/|	
|  a a  |	
 \  a  /	"Love my work, hate my job..."
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vbush@copper.ucs.indiana.edu (Victoria Bush) (09/21/90)

In <2265@opus.cs.mcgill.ca> Peter Deutsch proposes the following:

>The idea is to sell each machine with a set number of
>"software credits" and the user can choose whatever he or
>she wants from the list of announced products. Each
>package is worth a certain number of credits, the packages
>are chosen when the machine is ordered and the packages
>either installed on the release disk (more possible when
>the optical was the medium of choice) or the order sent to
>the vendor and the package mailed on.
>   ......
> [more good ideas deleted]
>			- peterd

Personally, I think this is a *great* idea. It would allow for some
flexibility to meet the needs of individuals, and yet it would keep
the work of the new computer owner to a minimum. I can think of quite
a few people here who might be interested in such an approach. There are
a lot of people here who seem interested in the NeXT, but for one reason
or another the black box doesn't have what they need. If NeXT would
go for such a credit aproach, I think it could enhance their credibility
with the common man.

So what do you say, NeXT? Is anyone out there taking notes on this? It
would be a novel approach to meeting the consumer's needs.....

-Vicki
Victoria Bush, a lowly graduate student| For by your words you will be   
Indiana University                     | acquitted, and by your words you
vbush@iubacs (Bitnet)                  | will be condemned.
vbush@copper.ucs.indiana.edu (Internet)|      -Matthew 12:37

barry@pico.math.ucla.edu (Barry Merriman) (09/22/90)

In article <59712@iuvax.cs.indiana.edu> vbush@copper.ucs.indiana.edu (Victoria Bush) writes:
>In <2265@opus.cs.mcgill.ca> Peter Deutsch proposes the following:
>
>>The idea is to sell each machine with a set number of
>>"software credits" and the user can choose whatever he or
>>she wants from the list of announced products.

>Personally, I think this is a *great* idea. It would allow for some
>flexibility to meet the needs of individuals, and yet it would keep
>the work of the new computer owner to a minimum. 

I, too, think its a nice idea, but I think NeXT and/or developers
wouldn't like it.

For one thing, if NeXT sells 100 machines a day, it'd be a fulltime
job for  10 people putting together all those custom loaded systems.
NeXT wont like that.

Second, it forces the software folks to cut some sort of deal, and 
distribute through NeXT. This cuts into their profits and 
marketing flexibility. They wont like that.

Finally, the user may end up paying more, than shopping the
open market---not a good deal for everyone.

So, it becomes a question of whether these new distribution
headaches outweigh the benefits. Since NeXT was burned once
by software distribution problems, they'll probably be cautious.`





--
Barry Merriman
UCLA Dept. of Math
UCLA Inst. for Fusion and Plasma Research
barry@math.ucla.edu (Internet)

bruce@atncpc.UUCP (Bruce Henderson) (09/24/90)

In article <382@kaos.MATH.UCLA.EDU>, barry@pico.math.ucla.edu (Barry Merriman) writes:
> Anyway, the bottom line is that NeXT may have coerced distributers
> into promising to order more machines, so that Steve could
> pull out the big 15,000 figure at the gala. So, we're not 
> out of the woods, yet.
> 
> 
> 
> --
> Barry Merriman
> UCLA Dept. of Math
> UCLA Inst. for Fusion and Plasma Research
> barry@math.ucla.edu (Internet)

Actually,
	This little number does not come from distributors and campus
bookstores per say.  More along the lines of "big companies that were
sitting on the fence".  Please refer to earlier articles where I state
that the NeXT customer base is at least 15,000 machines.  I can't tell
you (still) how I knew, but that is the reason.


Bruce Henderson
Ashton Tate NeXTeam