[comp.sys.next] Should I buy an '040, or wait for 88110?

scott@mcs-server.gac.edu (Scott Hess) (06/15/91)

I've gotten some replies to posts of mine asking for advice on
whether people should wait for the supposed 88110 machine (which
I've _yet_ to hear about from any trustworthy sources, so who
knows?)

First answer:  I can't really help - I'll probably buy it, when
it comes out, anyhow.  :-).  [Well, I hope to be able to, at least.]

Longer answer:  Look at what you're spending on the system (.edu
prices):

Slab            $2500
Monitor/keyboard$800
RAM (16M)       $650
Disk (1Gig)     $1800
Tape            $1800
UPS             $500
modem (fast)    $750

Total           $8800

Now, sure, you can skimp here and there - but if you're even
considering any RISC machine, it's silly to work with much less
than what I list - we're not talking about a Mac classic here,
after all.

Note that, in that list, the only component that changes when
you move to a risc system is the Slab itself.  Anything that talks
to the machine through SCSI or serial can stay.  The UPS can stay.
The monitor and keyboard can stay.  So, even if you do purchase
a system right now, the only thing you need to change to upgrade
(given that NeXT doesn't offer some awesome upgrade program) is
the CPU itself, which is only a quarter of the total.  More than
likely, a RISC CPU will cost more, anyhow, so that makes any loss
on the old CPU even less of a bother.

Now, consider that most computers depreciate in about 3 years.
In other words, in three years the machine you buy now will
be obsolete - well, at least not cutting edge.  Now, recall the
number of months most of us waited between ordering and receiving
our '040 systems.  Given that we haven't seen any announcements
from NeXT, and they are just now finishing clearing out their
backlogs, I would suspect that the man on the street would not
be able to have a RISC-based NeXT on their desk within 9 months
or maybe a year, no matter what happens.  So, if you bought
an '040 machine now, in a year it's worth quite a bit
less, anyhow, especially relative to any upgrade prices.

So, what it comes down to is "What are those 9 months worth to
you?"  If you've got real work to do, they'll probably make a
big difference.  If you get your $800 in use out of it in that
time, it's worth it.  And, after all, there's nothing that says
you have to have the mambo giant cutting edge machine all the
time.  If NeXT survives, there will certainly be another machine
after the machines they are currently working on.  A NextStation400/16
should be plenty of machine for most people, so you could keep it
for 3 years until the next generation after the next one comes out,
at which time it will probably be nearly useless, anyhow.  Then,
you can donate it to your church or local Boy Scout troop, or
something.

Lastly, an '040 would make a helluva print/UUCP/SLIP server.  So,
you could purchase a RISC system and run your old slab monitor-less.
Presuming a $3500 price tag for a RISC slab, your system is now
about $12,300 (not figuring inflation or anything), and has
something like 50MIPs to throw around.  I'd like it.

[Disclaimer:  I honestly have no idea what NeXT is doing WRT
 future machinery.  I'm not non-disclosed, and haven't even
 spoken with a NeXT employee for 2 months or more.  So, I'm
 probably not a good source for insider stuff.  I'm just
 trying to call it like I see it . . .]

Later,
--
scott hess                      scott@gac.edu
Independent NeXT Developer	Graduated GAC Undergrad!
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