[net.games.rogue] Rogue Research Results

nomi@rabbit.UUCP (06/18/83)

Thank you, all you people who sent data for my rogue survey
(all 3 of them).  utcsrgv!dave and rabbit!mam were the most
helpful.  I'm still collecting data, so keep sending it
in!  Just tell me what monster did you in on which level.
The report that follows involves only data from games I
played myself, because I don't have enough data from other
people yet.
All of the data is from version 5.2.  I played 432 games.
The results for levels after 16 are not significant because
I don't have much data for those.
_________________________________________________________
	Percent chance of dying on each level
1: 41%
2: 13%
3: 10%
4: 4%
5: 2%
6: 2%
7: 1%
8: 3%
9: 2%
10: 4%
11: 2%
12: 2%
13: 6%
14: 2%
15: 2%
16: 2%
17: 2%
18: 1%
19: <1%
20: 1%
21-n: <1%

Comments:  Clearly, level 1 is by far the most dangerous.
Levels 2 and 3 are next.  If you get past level 3, you're
fairly safe for a while.  Unfortunately, I've never been a
total winner and I haven't gotten beyond level 20.  (Don't
laugh, all you n-time total winners.)
_________________________________________________________
	Percent chance of dying on the level named,
	assuming you have reached it.

1: 41%
2: 22%
3: 21%
4: 10%
5: 7%
6: 7%
7: 4%
8: 9%
9: 7%
10: 18%
11: 11%
12: 11%
13: 43%
14: 31%
15: 32%
16-n: not statistically significant

Comments:  This data looks a little different from the previous
chart.  The most dangerous levels seem to be 1 and 13.  Those
trolls are mean.
_____________________________________________________________
	Percent chance of dying by each monster

A: 8%
B: 3%
C: 6%
D: <1%
E: 8%
F: <1%
G: <1%
H: 33%
I: 2%
J: 2%
K: 8%
L: 0
M: <1%
N: 0
O: 1%
P: <1%
Q: 2%
R: 0
S: 12%
T: 9%
U: 1%
V: <1%
W: <1%
X: 2%
Y: 1%
Z: 1%

Comments:  In this case, the statistics are somewhat deceptive.
The numbers don't really tell how mean each monster is.  The
lowly hobgoblin and snake cause the most deaths, because they
occur at levels when the rogue has low HP.  Nasties like xorns
and umber hulks are less likely to kill you because you are
less likely to meet them.
_____________________________________________________________
Send all comments, questions, flames, and data to me.
Don't waste them on /dev/null.
	Nomi Harris
	...rabbit!nomi