flinn@seismo.UUCP (E. A. Flinn) (12/08/83)
I apologize to everyone for a previous message about probability of getting hit points in rogue, in which the numbers were almost all entirely wrong. I think the following numbers are correct. --------------------------------------------------------------- Level 1: Probability of getting exactly this number in four throws 16 0.000 17 0.000 18 0.001 19 0.002 20 0.004 21 0.006 22 0.008 23 0.012 24 0.016 25 0.022 26 0.028 27 0.035 28 0.041 29 0.048 30 0.054 31 0.059 32 0.063 33 0.066 34 0.067 35 0.066 36 0.063 37 0.059 38 0.054 39 0.048 40 0.041 41 0.035 42 0.028 43 0.022 44 0.016 45 0.012 46 0.008 47 0.006 48 0.004 49 0.002 50 0.001 51 0.000 52 0.000 Cumulative probabilities from Level 1: (probability of getting this number or more in four throws) 16 1.000 17 1.000 18 1.000 19 0.999 20 0.997 21 0.993 22 0.987 23 0.979 24 0.967 25 0.951 26 0.929 27 0.900 28 0.866 29 0.824 30 0.776 31 0.722 32 0.663 33 0.600 34 0.534 35 0.467 36 0.400 37 0.337 38 0.278 39 0.224 40 0.176 41 0.135 42 0.100 43 0.072 44 0.049 45 0.033 46 0.021 47 0.013 48 0.007 49 0.004 50 0.002 51 0.000 52 0.000 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Level 2: Probability of getting exactly this number in three throws 1 - 2 - 3 0.00 4 0.00 5 0.01 6 0.01 7 0.01 8 0.02 9 0.03 10 0.04 11 0.05 12 0.05 13 0.06 14 0.07 15 0.07 16 0.08 17 0.08 18 0.07 19 0.07 20 0.06 21 0.05 22 0.05 23 0.04 24 0.03 25 0.02 26 0.01 27 0.01 28 0.01 29 0.00 30 0.00 Cumulative probabilities: (probability of getting this number or more in three throws) 3 1.00 4 1.00 5 1.00 6 0.99 7 0.98 8 0.97 9 0.94 10 0.92 11 0.88 12 0.84 13 0.78 14 0.72 15 0.65 16 0.58 17 0.50 18 0.43 19 0.35 20 0.28 21 0.22 22 0.17 23 0.12 24 0.08 25 0.06 26 0.04 27 0.02 28 0.01 29 0.00 30 0.00 Cumulative probabilities Ending| Present Hit Points at Level 2 Points/ 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 16 - - - - - - - - - - 17 1.00 - - - - - - - - - 18 1.00 1.00 - - - - - - - - 19 1.00 1.00 1.00 - - - - - - - 20 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 - - - - - - 21 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 - - - - - 22 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 - - - - 23 0.94 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 - - - 24 0.92 0.94 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 - - 25 0.88 0.92 0.94 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 - 26 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.94 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 27 0.78 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.94 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.00 28 0.72 0.78 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.94 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 29 0.65 0.72 0.78 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.94 0.97 0.98 0.99 30 0.58 0.65 0.72 0.78 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.94 0.97 0.98 31 0.50 0.58 0.65 0.72 0.78 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.94 0.97 32 0.43 0.50 0.58 0.65 0.72 0.78 0.84 0.88 0.92 0.94 33 0.35 0.43 0.50 0.58 0.65 0.72 0.78 0.84 0.88 0.92 34 0.28 0.35 0.43 0.50 0.58 0.65 0.72 0.78 0.84 0.88 35 0.22 0.28 0.35 0.43 0.50 0.58 0.65 0.72 0.78 0.84 36 0.17 0.22 0.28 0.35 0.43 0.50 0.58 0.65 0.72 0.78 37 0.12 0.17 0.22 0.28 0.35 0.43 0.50 0.58 0.65 0.72 38 0.08 0.12 0.17 0.22 0.28 0.35 0.43 0.50 0.58 0.65 39 0.06 0.08 0.12 0.17 0.22 0.28 0.35 0.43 0.50 0.58 40 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.12 0.17 0.22 0.28 0.35 0.43 0.50 41 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.12 0.17 0.22 0.28 0.35 0.43 42 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.12 0.17 0.22 0.28 0.35 43 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.12 0.17 0.22 0.28 44 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.12 0.17 0.22 45 - 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.12 0.17 46 - - 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.12 47 - - - 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 48 - - - - 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.06 49 - - - - - 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 50 - - - - - - 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 51 - - - - - - - 0.00 0.00 0.01 52 - - - - - - - - 0.00 0.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Level 3: Probability of getting exactly this number in two throws 1 - 2 0.010 3 0.020 4 0.030 5 0.040 6 0.050 7 0.060 8 0.070 9 0.080 10 0.090 11 0.100 12 0.090 13 0.080 14 0.070 15 0.060 16 0.050 17 0.040 18 0.030 19 0.020 20 0.010 Cumulative probabilities: (probability of getting this number or more in two throws) 2 1.00 3 0.99 4 0.97 5 0.94 6 0.90 7 0.85 8 0.79 9 0.72 10 0.64 11 0.55 12 0.45 13 0.36 14 0.28 15 0.21 16 0.15 17 0.10 18 0.06 19 0.03 20 0.01 Cumulative probabilities Ending| Present Hit Points at Level 3 Points/ 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 16 1.00 - - - - - - - - 17 0.99 1.00 - - - - - - - 18 0.97 0.99 1.00 - - - - - - 19 0.94 0.97 0.99 1.00 - - - - - 20 0.90 0.94 0.97 0.99 1.00 - - - - 21 0.85 0.90 0.94 0.97 0.99 1.00 - - - 22 0.79 0.85 0.90 0.94 0.97 0.99 1.00 - - 23 0.72 0.79 0.85 0.90 0.94 0.97 0.99 1.00 - 24 0.64 0.72 0.79 0.85 0.90 0.94 0.97 0.99 1.00 25 0.55 0.64 0.72 0.79 0.85 0.90 0.94 0.97 0.99 26 0.45 0.55 0.64 0.72 0.79 0.85 0.90 0.94 0.97 27 0.36 0.45 0.55 0.64 0.72 0.79 0.85 0.90 0.94 28 0.28 0.36 0.45 0.55 0.64 0.72 0.79 0.85 0.90 29 0.21 0.28 0.36 0.45 0.55 0.64 0.72 0.79 0.85 30 0.15 0.21 0.28 0.36 0.45 0.55 0.64 0.72 0.79 31 0.10 0.15 0.21 0.28 0.36 0.45 0.55 0.64 0.72 32 0.06 0.10 0.15 0.21 0.28 0.36 0.45 0.55 0.64 33 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.15 0.21 0.28 0.36 0.45 0.55 34 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.15 0.21 0.28 0.36 0.45 35 - 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.15 0.21 0.28 0.36 36 - - 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.15 0.21 0.28 37 - - - 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.15 0.21 38 - - - - 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.15 39 - - - - - 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.10 40 - - - - - - 0.01 0.03 0.06 41 - - - - - - - 0.01 0.03 42 - - - - - - - - 0.01 Cumulative probabilities Ending| Present Hit Points at Level 3 Points/ 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 25 1.00 - - - - - - - - 26 0.99 1.00 - - - - - - - 27 0.97 0.99 1.00 - - - - - - 28 0.94 0.97 0.99 1.00 - - - - - 29 0.90 0.94 0.97 0.99 1.00 - - - - 30 0.85 0.90 0.94 0.97 0.99 1.00 - - - 31 0.79 0.85 0.90 0.94 0.97 0.99 1.00 - - 32 0.72 0.79 0.85 0.90 0.94 0.97 0.99 1.00 - 33 0.64 0.72 0.79 0.85 0.90 0.94 0.97 0.99 1.00 34 0.55 0.64 0.72 0.79 0.85 0.90 0.94 0.97 0.99 35 0.45 0.55 0.64 0.72 0.79 0.85 0.90 0.94 0.97 36 0.36 0.45 0.55 0.64 0.72 0.79 0.85 0.90 0.94 37 0.28 0.36 0.45 0.55 0.64 0.72 0.79 0.85 0.90 38 0.21 0.28 0.36 0.45 0.55 0.64 0.72 0.79 0.85 39 0.15 0.21 0.28 0.36 0.45 0.55 0.64 0.72 0.79 40 0.10 0.15 0.21 0.28 0.36 0.45 0.55 0.64 0.72 41 0.06 0.10 0.15 0.21 0.28 0.36 0.45 0.55 0.64 42 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.15 0.21 0.28 0.36 0.45 0.55 43 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.15 0.21 0.28 0.36 0.45 44 - 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.15 0.21 0.28 0.36 45 - - 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.15 0.21 0.28 46 - - - 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.15 0.21 47 - - - - 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.10 0.15 48 - - - - - 0.01 0.03 0.06 0.10 49 - - - - - - 0.01 0.03 0.06 50 - - - - - - - 0.01 0.03 51 - - - - - - - - 0.01
flinn@seismo.UUCP (E. A. Flinn) (12/09/83)
I got a note asking what all those numbers mean in a message I sent earlier today to net.games.rogue; it was a follow-up to an earlier submission, the first part of which I'd better repeat to clarify things. One of the rogue gurus (gurues?) maintains that if you don't have at least 40 hit points by experience level 5 it's best just to quit. All I did was calculate the probabilities that you would have at least 16, 17,...52 hit points at level 5, starting from the 12 you have at level 1 and anyplace in between, which I thought might be of interest to other rogue players. The first submission attempted to do the same calculation, but was wrong.