POURNE@mit-mc.arpa (02/19/83)
From: Jerry E. Pournelle <POURNE@mit-mc.arpa> I am supposed to give a speec at NCC on "The Next Five Years in Micro Development." I haven't really the foggiest notion of what to say, although doubtless somethng will suggest itself and no doubt become an article as well. Still, help will be appreciated: any wild ideas greatefully accepted. All entries become property of the sponsors and none will be returned... I see a few trends. I expect 8" and 5 1/4" floppies will both die away, in not very long. Non-volatile memory will get cheap and plentiful. Shirt pocket disks will be used to transfer stuff fro publisher to user. Interesting trends in visuals and displays. T he "battle" between 68000 and 8086 family will be interesting, although the 16032 may decide t hat before the battle is really joined... Communications and information utilities will move ahead.. anyway, ideas and wild thoughts will be appreciated. JEP PS: does anyone know where the profits from NCC go? (I know it is a non-profit outfit that puts it on, but since it must make a LOT LOT LOT of money, where does the money go?) PPS: They say they cannot allow anyone to sell anything in the exhibits because of their non-profit status because the IRS will stop them; but in fact that's owl puckey. Science fiction conventions have for decades been non-profit (some incorporated some not) and they have always had a huckster room in which exhibitors sell stuff, and indeed also art auctions and what not. Query: why does NCC maintain this fiction of being unable to sell anything or allow anythin g to be sold? Qui bono?
mikem (02/21/83)
I really have nothing against Jerry Pournelle, but I must make this comment...
He is giving a paper at NCC on the future of micros, no doubt because his
opinion on the subject is respected. Unless I am taking his plea for help
too literally, he really doesn't have the foggiest idea of what should
happen or what will happen.
Prognosticators should have some level of confidence in their work, else
some might be led down the wrong rosey path.
On the lighter side of things, having been asked to give papers at other
conferences, I too have some doubts in what I say, but I never let anyone
else in on it.
Flame to:
Mike Mihalik
Tektronix, Inc.
{dec|ucb}vax!tektronix!tekmdp!mikempreece (02/22/83)
#R:sri-arpa:-47600:uicsl:7000006:000:480 uicsl!preece Feb 21 14:19:00 1983 I would assume the difference between NCC and, say, Worldcon, (aside from something more than a decimal order of magnitude) is that the exhibits are the central aspect of NCC while the hucksters and art show are peripherals aspects of Worldcon. Also, cons are mostly self-contained (i.e., the con is their entire reason for existence) while NCC is a creature of the non-profit entity that runs it, which is a creature of its constituent societies, which are non-profits as well.
JFong.ES@parc-maxc.arpa (02/22/83)
You might want to look into bubble memories and the 256k memory chips, I believe they will have a significant impact.