trc@houca.UUCP (11/04/83)
OK EVERYONE! Now we all know what the "Peanut" really is - so what happens next? Get our your crystal balls and look ahead 6-12 mos. Who's on first? Who's going to the showers? My predictions (read 'em and forget 'em if they dont come true....) The PCjr, even discounted, will far to expensive to buy as a cartridge/ computer-game machine. With the C64 going for ~ $200 with a couple of joysticks, vs PCjr's $750 with two sticks (RL Platt's price list), this seems obvious. Of course, most people dont justify their purchase on the basis of buying just a game machine - it is usually "to learn about computers" or "for the kids' educations". Call this the "novice" market. For that market, the PCjr has the wrong keyboard (at least it looks rotten from the little picture in the WS Journal). Physical appearance is always the among the first things that a novice judges on, and the C64 *looks* like it can be used to let a kid learn to type, or a person that knows how to type to easily use the computer. The second thing the novice will look at is memory size, because that is something that is easily quantifiable, and so will be "pitched" by salesmen and advertizements. Here the PCjr has the slight win of being expandable to 128K - but since the user typically isnt even sure that they will be able to use the computer at *all*, I dont think this will help IBM too much. Finally, and perhaps most surprisingly, a fair number of consumers seem to be recognizing the need for disk drives, as opposed to cassettes. (Commodore didnt see this, and is paying the price in delayed deliveries.) I suspect that this is at least partly because the consumer studies the products a bit, and comes to conclude that a sign of a "real" computer is a disk drive. Here, the C64 comes in at about $500, while I would guess the PCjr comes in around $1100 (with 64K). Still a poor price ratio, but not quite as bad. (I doubt that most consumers, even recognizing the difference in speed between the C64 and PCjr disks, will think it is that significant for their choice.) Finally, any analysis has to take one more factor into account - the IBM name. This will help IBM a lot. There will probably be a fair amount of "prestige factor" in owning an IBM. Thus, even with the price differential, I predict that the PCjr will be the computer of choice for upper-income buyers. After about one year, the PCjr will *normally* be sold with a disk. The C64 will continue to hold onto a large share of sales in the novice market. IBM will decide that the "novice mass market" isnt worth it, and will concentrate on being the "preferred" computer - the one that everyone buys second. This next market is the "experienced" buyer - anyone who's used a computer for over a year, or has equivalent knowledge. Here the PCjr fares a bit better, with its expansion slots, separate keyboard, and expansion memory. It out classes the C64, but the C64's price and broad user base will insure it a portion of this market too. Commodore will run second to IBM here. Actually, one of the competitors that the IBM PCjr will compete against best in this area will be IBM - they will lose a lot of PC sales to the PCjr. Apple? Well, Apple has a reputation, and is fairly well known. If only they are smart enough to wait til the end of the shake-out, then bring out a super-cheap Apple II compatible. The IIE will do OK in the "experienced" market, but the IBM glamour will overshadow the Apple. The MacIntosh will compete mainly with the Lisa and somewhat with the PC, I suppose. It will find a niche market, and do better than the Lisa. Apple had better get its act together, or it will see the big markets going to IBM and Commodore. I suspect that Apple will pull something out of its sleeve. The mark-up on the IIE must be rather large, to cover Apple's start-up costs. Maybe we can expect heavy discounting from Apple once the PCjr starts picking up steam. Radio Shack? They'll be around forever, even if they have to sell IBM computers to do it. Tandy is in business to make money, not to make computers. Coleco? They have a good idea - but I think their "game machine" image will hurt them, just as it hurt Atari. If any of the little guys have a chance to survive this Christmas, it's Coleco - IF they get their machine out in quantity, in time. I really doubt they'll pull it off, unfortunately. Plus, if they do start to succeed, Commodore is bound to whip up a similarly bundled package at a lower price. In any case, they are not in the same class as the PCjr. If the PCjr succeeds, the increased attention paid to computers by consumers might make the Adam survive, as people look for bargains. Atari? A likely shakeout by next Christmas - the TI shakeout should scare anyone away from Atari, since Atari is already having problems. Its a shame, since their machines seem nice, though rather pricey compared to Commodore. So it wont be IBM that kills them. Home videogames machines are on the way to being replaced by cheap computers, so Atari wont be able to rely on that "cash cow". If Alan Kay is really coming up with something neat (The Dynabook at last? A micro-Smalltalk?), he'd better do it fast. Another "wild card" is the Sanyo. This could be the first Japanese computer to *really* break into the US market. At about $800 for a pretty complete system with 128K and a disk (?), and some degree of PC compatibility, it is very competitive with the PCjr. Topping that off, I understand that it is definitely superior to the PCjr in graphics, if not to the PC itself. Since IBM is apparently going to set up new distribution channels, IBM doesnt even have an edge there! All it would take is a few big contracts - say with Kmart - and the Sanyo could be sitting right beside IBM in the stores. People know Sanyo's name, and if the PCjr doesnt compare well to the Sanyo, there could be a big "upset". (Especially if the price differential is really that bad - get a Sanyo *and* a color monitor, for the price of a PCjr!) Tom Craver houca!trc
fran@cbscc.UUCP (Frank Webb) (11/05/83)
I agree that IBM will probably not make noticeable impact on the game or low-priced home computer market with the pcjr. The price is too high for what you get, compared with the c64. I also don't feel that they are going to pull the rug out from under the apple 2e. They will compete, but each is going on the basis of the names they have already established. Apple still has a fantastic base of existing software, although there is some problem with the II+/IIe compatablility uncertainty. We need to see how much of the PCsr software the pcjr is going to be able to run on the disk system. If they can run most or all of the good stuff, then they have a good competitive product. I doubt whether you will see Apple come out with a cheaper machine than the 2e. That puts them into the vicious infighting with the gamesters. I see them pushing harder into the next higher layer, for small businesses and schools (colleges), with the Macintosh. That is a good solid market, and they can come up with a machine slightly higher in grade than the PCXT. Interesting to see where the PCjr will get its initial sales. Lets assume that you were a serious home or small business type, needed a computer, did not want to get a "toy" system, and wanted more business or analysis than games. Apple was one choice, IBM PC the second. A lot of folks who were going to go with the PC may now drop to the PCjr. Of course, a lot of people who wanted the PC for Lotus or Visi_ON were also looking at the PC/Clones, and they too may go to the PCjr rather than the clones. I agree that Apple has not been dealt a death blow. They should be able to survive the PCjr (unless the stripped machine suddenly sprouts a network connection which allows an "edunet" type of operation with one PC-XT feeding 12 PC jrs. in a classroom). I have looked at some of the public figures for Colecos financials. I wouldn't go short, yet, but their debt/equity and current ratios really look awful. Unless they can get some cash flow yesterday, I wouldn't give them a good chance to survive. Frank Webb The unruffled Sage CB 2C235 .
mort@ihuxn.UUCP (11/06/83)
I found yor article fascinating and quite true. (By the way, being an indexperienced NEWS user I am sorry if any stray messages have found their way onto the system.) Being an Apple II owner, I have a few comments to add to your predictions: All of us Apple II owners were nervous before the announcement of the Apple //e early this year. Fears of incompatibility made us think that perhaps the Apple II+ would become obsolete. As it is now apparent, Apple is sticking to its old design, with a few nice improvements. What Apple basically has going for it now is a solid reputation, immense software support in games, business, utility, and appplications programs, lots of hardware support, superb third-arty documentation, and over a million usersNotice that so far, the Apple II and its variations have been the only "successes" at Apple. The Apple /// was a flop from the beginning. Bad documentation, bugs in the system, and lacking software support were among its shortcomings. Its not a bad computer, but it just doen't have the bestselling character- istics of the Apple II. It is compatible, but on its own there is not that much that it can really do. I believe that with the introduction of the Lisa recently and the future introduuction of the MacIntosh, Apple will pull out of the Apple /// market as quietly as it can. The //e is another Apple sucess story, but again it is just a redone Apple II with lower case, 64K, and a host of other small improvements. The Apple II has a while to go before being obsolete. Compare the new Apple //e revision B 80column 128K computer with double-hires and 16 color graphics to the old Integer, 16-48K, Monitor (Old) Rom that could not use hi-res graphics from its half-baked BASIC and divided 3 by 2 and got 1, and you'll see what improvements have been made. The Lisa is another story. The Lisa is the first computer that was worked from the ground up: Absolutely no attempt at compatibility with Apple's previous models. At $10,000, and now at $7,500, it is a bit overpriced, even though there's over 800K on each of the 2 floppies and there is 1 megabyte of on-line memory. Lisa's sucess lies in third-party development of expansions and software. The computer has great potential, but the price shold be hacked to $5000, at least so it sells and doen't create bad publicity for Apple. We are all waiting anxiously for the MacIntosh, which is more than I can say for the IBM Peabrain with the chicklet keyboard that compares to the TRS-80 Color Computer. An inside contact of mine at Apple is the chief advertiser for the Mac, and says that the machine will be a hit. It is supposed to be have a 32-bit microprocessor, but everything is hush- hush at Apple. He wouldn't even say if the machine was compatible with the II, but I got the impression that it won't be. Your message to Apple is a good one: Wait until the shakeout is over and then introduce a cheap Apple //e, like, say, under $500 base price. What does it cost Apple to make it? I hear $350. I have faith in Apple, and I am looking forward to their new products. Jonathan Dubman (Son of Mort Dubman) P.S. I am interested in your responses to this article.