hsplab@ecsvax.UUCP (04/06/84)
The experience Brian Doody has had trying to purchase an 8272 seems to
be similar to my recent attempt to purchase an 8085AH1. I called three
companies in North Carolina, all of who have national distribution
rights for Intel. These included Pioneer, Hamilton-Avnet, and Arrow
(I think). All three could not locate parts anywhere in their system.
Pioneer told me that they have been on allocation for 25 (!!!) parts
per month and were sold out for the rest of the year. I thought it
would not be productive to put my name on the waiting list. I called
Intel in Greensboro and was told that both the 8088 and 8085 are in
extremely short supply and confirmed that they were on allocation. I
basically translated this to mean that if you did not place your order
sometime in the past for a million chips (e.g., IBM), you are probably
not going to get any soon. Basically I decided to stick with the
slower 8085 chip I already had on hand.
David Chou
University of NC, Chapel Hill
decvax!mcnc!ecsvax!hsplabmats@dual.UUCP (Mats Wichmann) (04/07/84)
Interesting question, this. We have been bitten by this problem, as have
most other manufacturers, I think. Parts are just not available. Almost
everything is on allocation these days. The much-ballyhooed 256-k
dynamic RAMS are only available in very small quantities, at outrageous
prices, even though there is not problem with either technology or with
manufacturing. The problem here seems to be that the chip mfgs. don't
want to undercut their lucrative market for 64k drams, so they are
withholding the 256k's.
Topic for discussion: WHY is the supply of chips so short right now?
If people were making chips at the rate they were a few years ago,
there would be plenty of parts for everyone.
My theory: most of the chip mfgs. got caught with their pants down in the
latest recession. They were building along at a merry pace and all of a
sudden, BANG, nobody was willing to carry inventory any more. Where most
people carried 6 months or more parts stock, all of a sudden they were
trying to pare down to only keeping this weeks' production requirements
in stock. As a result, the chip mfgs. got left with a huge oversupply.
They survived this, although a look at financial reports from a few years
back will show that it wasn't easy on their pocketbooks. It seems that
this time around, they are going to throttle the supply so that they
won't get burned the same way if another recession hits - they will
be building at somewhat under the demand so that if a slump hits, they
will be building right at or a just a little over the demand. Besides,
asupply which is less than the demand would tend to drive the prices
up, right?
As I say, only my theory, but it makes sense to me. Any comments?
Mats Wichmann
Dual Systems Corp.
...{ucbvax,amd70,ihnp4,cbosgd,decwrl,fortune}!dual!matsfremont@hplabs.UUCP (Michael J. Fremont) (04/09/84)
I believe that reading some of the industry papers like Electronic News will convince you that: 1. The shortage in parts (especially single-chip micros) is real, and is due to a vastly increased demand, 2. The manufacturers are doing everything they can to increase production. mike
murray@t4test.UUCP (Murray Lane) (04/10/84)
There has been a recent spat of articles dealing with chip availability. I've decided I can't ignore them any longer. Here are some VERY unofficial answers to some of the questions. They do not represent any official stance by Intel or any other chip manufacturer. As evidence that I know what I am talking about, a portion of my job is to get 80286 family produced in quantity. > Topic for discussion: WHY is the supply of chips so short right now? > If people were making chips at the rate they were a few years ago, > there would be plenty of parts for everyone. > Semiconductor manufacturers are making chips at many times the rate they were a few years ago, the problem is, demand has gone up by an order of magnitude more than production capacity. > My theory: most of the chip mfgs got caught with their pants down in the > latest recession. They were building along at a merry pace and all of a > sudden, BANG, nobody was willing to carry inventory any more. Where most > people carried 6 months or more parts stock, all of a sudden they were > trying to pare down to only keeping this weeks' production requirements > in stock. As a result, the chip mfgs. got left with a huge oversupply. I cannot comment about the rest of the industry, but at Intel we DID get stuck with a huge inventory in the 1974 recession. Intel did not get burned in the last recession, management saw it coming and pared down the inventory. I don't know about our customers inventory. > They survived this, though a look at financial reports from a few years > back will show that it wasn't easy on their pocketbooks. It seems that > this time around, they are going to throttle the supply so that they > won't get burned the same way if another recession hits - they will > be building at somewhat under the demand so that if a slump hits, they > will be building right at or a just a little over the demand. Besides, > asupply which is less than the demand would tend to drive the prices > up, right? At Intel, on the 80186 and 80286 families, we are currently producing at several times what we were projected to be doing at this time a year ago. However, demand has shot up at an even greater rate (actual numbers are propriatary). We are ramping up production as fast as we can (we are on allocation from some of our vendors too). Could we have built up sooner? Not likely, Intel has been building wafer fabrication facilities all through the recession, but we are still short of wafers. > As I say, only my theory, but it makes sense to me. Any comments? > > Mats Wichmann > Dual Systems Corp. > ...{ucbvax,amd70,ihnp4,cbosgd,decwrl,fortune}!dual!mats Sorry, as one deeply involved in trying to meet customer demand, your theories so not make sense to me. Murray at Intel @ t4test
phil@amd70.UUCP (Phil Ngai) (04/11/84)
> From: mats@dual.UUCP (Mats Wichmann) > Newsgroups: net.micro > Subject: Re: chip availability > Message-ID: <423@dual.UUCP> > > Topic for discussion: WHY is the supply of chips so short right now? > If people were making chips at the rate they were a few years ago, > there would be plenty of parts for everyone. > > My theory: most of the chip mfgs. got caught with their pants down in the > latest recession. They were building along at a merry pace and all of a > sudden, BANG, nobody was willing to carry inventory any more. Where most > people carried 6 months or more parts stock, all of a sudden they were > trying to pare down to only keeping this weeks' production requirements > in stock. As a result, the chip mfgs. got left with a huge oversupply. > They survived this, although a look at financial reports from a few years > back will show that it wasn't easy on their pocketbooks. It seems that > this time around, they are going to throttle the supply so that they > won't get burned the same way if another recession hits - they will > be building at somewhat under the demand so that if a slump hits, they > will be building right at or a just a little over the demand. Besides, > a supply which is less than the demand would tend to drive the prices > up, right? > > As I say, only my theory, but it makes sense to me. Any comments? > Mats Wichmann > Dual Systems Corp. > ...{ucbvax,amd70,ihnp4,cbosgd,decwrl,fortune}!dual!mats It's true that people aren't making chips at the same rate they were several years ago: they're making them at a much higher rate. But they are being purchased at an even faster rate. Consider the following quotes: From Fortune, Mar 19, 1984 "U.S. chipmakers started to build about 90 wafer fabrication lines in 1983 and will start perhaps 200 this year, increasing their total number of lines by 30%. The big five spent $874 million for land, buildings, and capital equipment last year; those items should grow 73% this year, to $1.5 billion. Since it takes about two years to build a new line and bring it up to speed, much of this capacity will come on stream around 1986." From San Jose Mercuy, Jan 13, 1984 "Customers ordered about $3.4 billion worth of semiconductors in the last three months of 1983, about 2 1/2 times the $1.3 billion they ordered in the last three months of 1982, the Semiconductor Industry Association said." Probably the biggest problem is that many people seem to think semiconductor capacity can be turned on with the flip of a switch when actually it takes about 2 years to bring a new fab online. by the way, I'm not biased, oh nooo... -- Phil Ngai (408) 988-7777 {ucbvax,decwrl,ihnp4,allegra,intelca}!amd70!phil