werner@ut-ngp.UUCP (05/15/84)
forget physical deterioration, but imagine the frequency with which a software error or upgrade to one of those "many programs" or "useful data files requires replacing the whole disk ..... I, for one, do not cherish the idea of having to buy a new disk every few weeks, just to stay updated. Maybe a point could be made, that it should be possible to live without updating for a very long time. Certainly true in some program cases - I still use MODEM7 Version 12 - but imagine such a disk containing a complete MVS-Operating System (I like to pick on IBM software. at least, I get no flames from those UNIX-fundamentalists rumoured to haunt this net), plus a lot of compilers, utility programs, and useful data files. And remember, maintainance and updates cost $$$, so how much are these updates going to cost? At the cost of a magazine subscription I'd accept, but then I don't think I ever believed in the Easter-Bunny. But there are certainly useful applications, how about getting the phone book published in this form - they only update once a year anyway and you get the book at no extra cost (until now, anyway). There goes the ability to "upgrade" the phone book by adding an updated number with pencil, the ultimate word processor, IF equipped with an erasor ... My conclusion: As neither software nor data is cheap, this disk is either full of garbage and affordable, or VERY expensive to buy. As maintenance and updates are expensive, only the super-rich will be able to afford it. MAYBE, IBM will offer those drives below cost as an add-on, and then sell their software and software updates to millions of PC-owners, at a small profit, but still making GEGA-bucks in total, but I'm not recommending that you hold your breath. An Afterthought Many years ago while system-hacking on IBM-mainframes, I dropped a letter in their suggestion box, saying that they should come up with a way to make ALL their software available to ALL sites, and charge according to usage. We, the customer, had to waste so much time and effort to justify to management the purchase cost of new software, that many packages simply never got considered, even when free trial-periods are offered. But when all the software in the world is just sitting there to be tested and played with by anyone without need to worry about the "small" (in IBM terms) usage fee, everyone would benefit. Plus, imagine the competetive edge that would have put IBM in (or not), as all independent software houses would have to follow suit. Whereas IBM has the capital strength to reap profits slowly by usage fees, I, seriously doubt that software houses could survive such a policy, as they need the cash faster to cover costs and new developments. On the other hand, if I think that the independent's software would be available at the same easy terms, and comparisons made that easy, I had my doubts that IBM-software would get very much use - but I did not tell that to IBM, of course, because that's what I was scheming for, anyway, in retaliation for all the nightmares received due to IBM-software. Well, maybe IBM has developed a black-box to guarantee fees are collected according to usage, and to make pirating programs off those GEGA-disks "nearly" impossible (near enough not to worry about revenues), or maybe their software has improved tremendously, or their marketing evaluation indicates that it is not likely that the competition will be able to stand up to the massive onslaught of IBM "cheap" software and data; Maybe, I have the largest bonus in history coming my way for the best idea since IBM was founded .... I promise to accept graciously, never say another word about IBM software, and guarantee that even my grand-children will pay homage to the wisdom of IBM .... Ha, werner @ utexas-20.ARPA werner @ ut-ngp.UUCP (via ihnp4)
abc@brl-tgr.ARPA (Brint Cooper ) (05/20/84)
But we've never really seen the economies of scale applied to computer software. Suppose your OS cost $125 and you were guaranteed the next three updates or bug-fixes for free. Then suppose subsequent enhancements (fixes?) cost $20.00. Since the cost of the medium should halve in the near future, this is not unreasonable. Suppose you were guaranteed this for, say 3-5 years. How would you feel about that?