yamauchi@fortune.UUCP (09/26/84)
>TESTED 64k DRAMs are under $3.50 each in volume ... TESTED 256k DRAMS are >still floating around or above $30.00 each and the price market COULD easily >suffer the increases caused by heavy demand as people switch from 64 to 256 >parts .... just as the prices on 64k parts soared in 1981 as people switched >from 16k parts. First off $30.00 is off mark. You have to remember that said company can buy LARGE quantities of DRAM's and their current pricing is closer to $25/DRAM. You can expect that to go down in '85 due to the increasing number of DRAM manufacturers "coming on line". So more than likely said company will be buying 256K's at under $20, probably somewhere near $18. Various manufacturers are quoting prices near $20 for 1Q85. >simple math is 18*$30 = $540. Dealers discounts are typically %40 off list >so an expected dealer can recieve the upgrade at about $999*0.6 = $600. >The remaining $60 plus or minus $50 is not enough to cover the paper work >and testing/restocking of old digital boards ... Lets see now; 18*$25 = $450. The remaining $150 may not be enough to cover all of the paper work, etc. but they are getting close to breaking even. Now at $18/DRAM 18*18= $324, leaving $276 for the other expenses. >In realistic terms Apple is probably EATing $300-500 dollars by offering >the upgrade at near componet costs ... and may eat a lot more if the >price on 256k parts soars back above $40.00 a part. It's doubtful that Axxxx is EATING as much as you estimate, but at the present time they are more than likely taking some loss. It is also doubtful that they would offer an upgrade at that price without forseeing some future profit or at least break even in the near future. >The upgrade price is the nearest thing to a free lunch I have seen ... in >an industry where multiples of x2.5 to x3.5 are min list prices above >costs .... thus a fair price for the upgrade today would be above >$30 * 18 * 3 = $1,620.00 plus installation labor and a restocking charge >(and testing) for the old board ... a real value of closer to $2,000 even. It may be a free lunch now, but by 2Q85 they'll be making money on the upgrade, pricing on 256k's has already taken some sharp drops due to new companies coming on line. A fair price is closer to the current upgrade price, $2k is ludicrous. >Apple is both VERY kind to its installed base ... and praying that the >prices of the rams drop before it looses it's shirt on both the upgrade >and the NEW price for the 512k MAC. Don't feel sorry for Axxxx they aren't praying for the prices to drop, they're telling the 256k vendors what they want to pay and with the various manufacturer's they can play pricing games with everyone of them. Remember, there are quite a few divisions that can use the 256k's and together they can add up to some HUGE quantities. That's some big bucks for the 256k manufacuturers. Axxxx doesn't deal with rep's or distri- bution houses on these types of products, they go direct to the semiconductor house!! Marketing departments ( you know they've got a huge one! ) aren't about to let their company offer products they don't intend to make money on. How many companies do you know of where "GOODWILL" won out over MONEY?? Alan Yamauchi UUCP: {ihnp4,ucbvax!amd,hpda,sri-unix,harpo}!fortune!yamauchi DDD: (415)594-2436 USPS: Fortune Systems Corp, 101 Twin Dolphin Drive, Redwood City, CA 94065
haapanen@watdcsu.UUCP (Tom Haapanen [DCS]) (09/28/84)
In addition to the new 256K chips, remember that Apple also has to provide: - a 68000 - a 'Woz machine' disk controller chip - about 30 other chips, many complex -> expensive - a multi-layer PC board. at $995 ($1495 in Hoserland) it doesn't sound like Apple could be making much money on this. Maybe a bit more on the 512K Fat Macs, though. Tom Haapanen allegra \ clyde \ \ decvax ---- watmath --- watdcsu --- haapanen ihnp4 / / linus /