[net.micro] Some thoughts on future micro-computers

rf@wu1.UUCP (10/27/84)

A brief study of the microprocessor market:

  8086 Family.  Itty-bitty business computers, at least until IBM 
comes out with the IBM-pc/xa, which will allow arrays larger than 
64K.  Operating system: pc-dos extensively modified by IBM.

  68,000 family.  Graphics machines.  From Macintosh (for home use) 
to Sun Microsystems.  Some scientific, medium scale communications 
applications.  No floating point standard (a major disadvantage for 
scientific use); inadequate memory management.  Operating systems: 
Unix System V, Apple Mac.

  National Semiconductor 32,000 family.  The workhorse of future 
medium-scale transaction-processing computers.  Contender for 
medium-scale scientific use.  Contender for medium-scale (in 
networks, large-scale) business use.  Standard floating point and 
paged virtual memory management.  Operating systems: Genix (Berkely 
4.2 Unix), various Unices with transaction processing support.

Open markets:

The 4 to 16 terminal business computer.  Probable occupants: IBM, 
DEC.  A much expanded IBM-pc, a small VAX, a small 4300.  Possibly 
an NS 32,000-based system from some as-yet unknown company.  The 
IBM series 30 (system/34, system/36, system/38) is self-limiting 
and will soon be too costly for this market.  The series 30 is 
massively incompatable with existing software.  If IBM sells 4300s 
to this market they may run VM -- certainly not DOS or OS.  
Conceivably, some unknown could capture this market.

The automated office.  Possible occupants: IBM, Apple, DEC.  It's 
not yet clear whether workstation networks or medium-scale 
computers will fill this niche.  At the moment, Apple has the best 
workstation for this application, but will be releasing their 
network early in 1985.  IBM will also release a pc network in 1985. 
1985 promises to be an interesting year.  On the medium-scale 
computer side, either VAXen or 4300s running VM are possibilities.  
At the moment, DEC has the better system.  Conceivably, some 
unknown could capture this market.

The next home computer.  Possible occupants: the Apple Macintosh 
(68,000 processor), the Mindset (80186 with graphics co-processor.) 
Probably the market will go to one of those two; possibly to both.

				Randolph Fritz
UUCPnet:			{ihnp4,decvax}!philabs!wu1!rf

If economists predicted weather, we'd never speak of seasons.

dch@genie.UUCP (Dan Hannah) (01/30/85)

Soon you will be seeing a really good machine at a fraction of
the cost! (referring to Macs)

The Atari will run circles around the competition...

Close B clothes mode...

Deputy Dan