[comp.society.futures] USA-USSR Arms Race - the bright side

FNZAK@WEIZMANN.BITNET (Omer Zak) (12/23/87)

I got few responses on my suggestion that we the Earth people have been
fortunate to have nuclear arms race.
One response revealed the leftist bias and assumptions of its
originator:
> I also have a complementary science-fiction theme. Where a rational
> and humane race lands on this planet, looks around and leaves in
> disgust "they had food to feed the world, but they preferred to build
> weapons with their resources and condemn a third of their population
> to the torture of starvation, they are a worthless animal better
> quarantined than allowed to share in the galactic community, they have
> little to be proud of..."
A similar theme was put by Issac Asimov in the form of the short story
'Silly Asses').  The bias lies in non-recognition of the fact that
history unfortunately proved again and again the saying 'if you seek
peace, be prepared for war'.  The fact is that there was no nuclear war
between USA and USSR and that the only event which is expected to bring
it about is the emergence of an irrational leader in either country.
If an alien race'd have visited the Earth then they'll have praise on
the statemanship in which the Earth people handled the serious imbalance
of power due to the leap into the era of atomic energy.

Consider the fact that the previous revolution in arms technology (the
one due to introduction of gunpowder in the battlefield) made it possible
for few countries (which happened to be located in Europe) to exploit the
entire world to their advantage (it is the meaning of 'colonization').
They didn't care to invest and develop industries in the colonies, because
they'd compete with the industries in the home countries.  It's the real
cause of the 'torture of starvation' to which 'a third of their
population' is condemned.
Imagine how terrible would it have been if colonial governments were
backed up by nuclear weapons possessed by the colonizing powers, allowing
them to exploit the natives under threat of total extinction.

The fact that it didn't occur is a big miracle, indeed!

---

Another response which started by:
> Don't be absurd.
has the distinction of making a serious analysis which revealed
the unbiased way in which its originator approached the problem.

> If "we assume that mankind is not alone in space" (a considerable
> assumption since we have absolutely zero evidence of it), the odds
> are extraordinarily poor that we will run across one whose level of
> advancement is less than 1000 years from ours, in either direction.
> We will not need nuclear weapons to deal with those who are a thousand
> years behind us, and nuclear weapons will be useless against those
> who are a thousand years ahead of us.

I couldn't agree more with the above analysis.  But...
The implicit assumption which it made is that if an enemy reaches us
from the space, it will always be equipped with the most advanced
technology under disposal of its race.
However, it is not necessarily so.  The enemy could be a renegade,
expelled from its race, and which doesn't have access to the most
advanced arms developed by its race.  The best analogy familiar to us
is that of common criminals.  Even when armed, they usually are
not armed by anything more advanced than pistols.  Even machine guns
are rare.  Tanks, fighter airplanes, advanced communication equipment
and the like have never been used by criminals (in the usual sense of
the word - I am not speaking about terrorists, revolutionaries and the
like).  Not to mention atom bombs (even though there is fear of
terrorists building or stealing an atom bomb and using it to extort
governments).

By analogy, it may be a good idea to be able to defend Earth against
enemies whose arms technology is about at the level of atom bombs or
slightly higher.
                                        --- Omer
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