[comp.society.futures] NeXT not revolutionary enough?

bzs@encore.com (Barry Shein) (11/02/88)

From: conrad@wucs1.wustl.edu (H. Conrad Cunningham)
>In article <4391@ubc-cs.UUCP> manis@grads.cs.ubc.ca (Vincent Manis) writes:
>> ...Basically, the 
>>issue for `revolutionariness' is not the operating system, but the under- 
>>lying physical architecture. ...
>>...
>>It's clear that the leverage we need for truly revolutionary applications 
>>comes from massively parallel systems, either loosely coupled (in a network) 
>>or tightly coupled (e.g., Transputers or the Connection Machine).  ...
>
>	I have no disagreement that wide-scale availability and usage of
>massive parallelism is one of the potential revolutions somewhere over
>the horizon. Innovative computer and communications architectures and
>designs must play a big part in that revolution.  However, without
>devising new ways to exploit the parallelism on a wide-range of
>problems, all the fancy parallel hardware won't be so revolutionary.
>The revolution will be as much--maybe moreso--a "software" revolution
>than a "hardware" revolution.  New languages, operating systems,
>tools, theories, methodologies, algorithms, and/or techniques are
>needed.

First off, consider the company I work for (and also note I was saying
the same as I am about to say before I came here a few months ago,
don't confuse cause and effect.)

The problem with both of the above comments is that they are making
the "best" the enemy of the "good".

I have no doubt that all of the above coming true will make massive
parallelism more useful, but to some extent this whole line of
reasoning is a thought virus, something which infects your thinking
about a new idea and renders your thoughts nearly useless.

Non-massive parallelism is here *today* in completely useful
packaging.  Why does something as simple as knowing that while your
compile is running in the background your foreground is running on a
different CPU so response remains flat. Also, with several CPUs,
things like compiles of lots of files can speed up at least linearly
(at least seems odd until you realize how efficiently the buffer
caches and shared text segments can get used during parallel compiles,
they're not only cpu bound but use a lot of disk resources as well.)

Also, traditional unix pipes like:

	lastcomm | sed mumble | sort -u | wc -l

will run in parallel on 4 (in this case) CPUs.

There are a lot of other examples, like I said, don't make the best
the enemy of the good and say "Ah, computers are useless, no one has
even solved the halting problem yet!" which is what a lot of this
moaning and groaning sounds like.

	-Barry Shein, ||Encore||

manis@faculty.cs.ubc.ca (Vincent Manis) (11/03/88)

In article <4069@encore.UUCP> bzs@encore.com (Barry Shein) writes:
>There are a lot of other examples, like I said, don't make the best
>the enemy of the good and say "Ah, computers are useless, no one has
>even solved the halting problem yet!" which is what a lot of this
>moaning and groaning sounds like.

I have a great deal of respect for Barry, but I think he's under a 
misapprehension about my original remarks. Basically, what I intended
to say is that the NeXT machine doesn't seem tremendously technologically
revolutionary (though definitely nice). It will, however, reach an 
audience which has never had access to this sort of heavy-duty computing
capability before. What they'll do with it I don't know, but it will
certainly bear watching.

The PC is an excellent example of this sort of thing. When the PC was
released in 1981, the dominant machine was the Apple ][. This machine,
however, had the cachet of being a toy (you could play games on it). 
The PC was marketed as a serious business computer, though it was in
fact a glorified Apple ][ (it even had a cassette port). Suddenly,
a lot of people had PC's on their desks, and they started using them
for all kinds of applications.

Technologically, the PC is boring. However, its wide availability led
to all kinds of applications being developed, and to a tremendous lowering
of prices. The PC led to increased credibility of microcomputers, and 
therefore set the stage for the Mac (itself a revolutionary machine).

I don't know whether the NeXT machine will be revolutionary in this sense.
A lot will depend upon the fortunes of the company, and how their customers
use the machine. I do however wish them well.


____________  Vincent Manis                    | manis@cs.ubc.ca
___ \  _____  The Invisible City of Kitezh     | manis@cs.ubc.cdn
____ \  ____  Department of Computer Science   | manis%cs.ubc@relay.cs.net
___  /\  ___  University of British Columbia   | uunet!ubc-cs!manis
__  /  \  __  Vancouver, BC, Canada            | (604) 228-2394
_  / __ \  _ "In the U.S.S.R., newspapers all print the same thing because
____________  the government tells them to. American newspapers all print the
              same thing even though the government doesn't tell them to."

bzs@encore.com (Barry Shein) (11/04/88)

I agree with Vincent's apprehensions.

What would probably be revolutionary would be an inexpensive home
computer who's forte is setting up home-brew usenet/e-mail links
between households. Something like an Atari/ST or PC/Klone with a
2400b modem and a 100MB disk with a "just pick a site name and a
neighbor" software set-up. It doesn't have to be fast. It could
probably be done for around $2000 list or less. Centralized service
machines could then be built around this. I suppose FIDOnet was an
attempt at that, perhaps someone from that culture could comment on
its current status? The important distinction from services like
CompuServe is that a significant amount of the computing would go on
in the households.

What do other people think would be revolutionary in a personal
computer?

	-Barry Shein, ||Encore||

dave@micropen (David F. Carlson) (11/09/88)

In article <4429@ubc-cs.UUCP>, manis@faculty.cs.ubc.ca (Vincent Manis) writes:
> In article <4069@encore.UUCP> bzs@encore.com (Barry Shein) writes:
> >There are a lot of other examples, like I said, don't make the best
> >the enemy of the good and say "Ah, computers are useless, no one has
> >even solved the halting problem yet!" which is what a lot of this
> >moaning and groaning sounds like.
> 
> I don't know whether the NeXT machine will be revolutionary in this sense.
> A lot will depend upon the fortunes of the company, and how their customers
> use the machine. I do however wish them well.
> 
> ____________  Vincent Manis                    | manis@cs.ubc.ca

Something on NeXT that I have seen so I'll say it:

Note that Apple's successes (and therefore arguably Job's) have not been
from the rev I machines.  Every see an Apple I or even an Apple II?  No,
the real success was the Apple II+ (which is still being sold in a slightly
different form today.)  Similarly the Mac was an anemic toy when first 
released:  tiny little B&W screen with 128K memory with no possibility of
expansion.  I was really the MAC II that made the Mac viable for anyone who
needs a real machine.

I have no reason to doubt that this machine for "academia" is just the 
Apple I for NeXT.  Its the NeXT II+ that I'm waiting for:  the machine
for the rest of us.


-- 
David F. Carlson, Micropen, Inc.
micropen!dave@ee.rochester.edu

"The faster I go, the behinder I get." --Lewis Carroll

gary@percival.UUCP (Gary Wells) (11/09/88)

In article <4090@encore.UUCP> bzs@encore.com (Barry Shein) writes:
>
>What do other people think would be revolutionary in a personal
>computer?

I feel particularly qualified to answer this, since I live with 2 techno-klutzes.  I can make wonderful things happen with the machines in our house, they have 
trouble making anything work right.  The comments that follow apply equally to
computers, television sets, VCR's and micro-wave ovens.

1) They must become simplier to use.  _MUCH_ simpler.  My wife cannot reliably 
record a TV program of her choice because she can't remember to set all the 
appropreate options (start time, end time, channel, antenna/cable, etc).  She
also can't reliably run the word processor, for the same reasons, even though
I have relabeled the function keys as "store", "retrieve", etc.

2) Endless options, nice for the truely interested, should somehow be reserved
for the expert.  The general person wants to write a letter, and send 6 copies
of it to friends.  Footnotes, reference list, widows, orphans, binder, etc, 
options are just confusing.

3) The general population wants to _see_ it on the screen the way it will look
on paper.  They want color and the ablity to draw pictures.  They want color
printers.

4) They want "point and shoot", literally.  Ask a person who is struglling with
any program what they want to do.  They will point at a word (for instance) thatthey want moved, point at where they want it, then point at the printer.  Their
hand never touches the keyboard.  

We will have a revelution when fingers are the primary pointing device, WYSIWYG
test editors are the rule, the program can configure itself (the last WP packageI ionstalled had 5 floppies full of printer config files.  _I_ know they were 
mostly duplicates with different names on them, but the average person doesn't),color and graphics are simple to use and include in all operations, what appearson the screen appears on the paper and, most important, the documents don't 
out on the first page with jargon (open any doc's you have.  read the "getting 
started" section.  It says "Before you use this package*, make a backup* copy ofthe disks* and store them in a safe palce", or words to that effect.  * indicatejargon.  My wife doesn't know what to do at this point, so does nothing.  In thefirst sentance, we have already intimidated our user, which is the same as 
saying alienated our customer.  Not a good idea!

-- 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Still working on _natural_ intelligence.

gary@percival   (...!tektronix!percival!gary)

mfi@beach.cis.ufl.edu (Mark Interrante) (11/09/88)

>In article <4429@ubc-cs.UUCP>, manis@faculty.cs.ubc.ca (Vincent Manis) writes:

>Note that Apple's successes (and therefore arguably Job's) have not been
>from the rev I machines.  Every see an Apple I or even an Apple II?  No,
>the real success was the Apple II+ (which is still being sold in a slightly
>different form today.)  Similarly the Mac was an anemic toy when first 
>released:  tiny little B&W screen with 128K memory with no possibility of
>expansion.  I was really the MAC II that made the Mac viable for anyone who
                              ^^^^^^
>needs a real machine.
>I have no reason to doubt that this machine for "academia" is just the 
>Apple I for NeXT.  Its the NeXT II+ that I'm waiting for:  the machine
                            ^^^^^^^^
>for the rest of us.

Just for historical accuracy, it was the mac+ with 1mb, hardisk port, and 
updated ROMS, that push the MAC into the "real"machine catagory.



-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mark Interrante   		  Software Engineering Research Center
mfi@beach.cis.ufl.edu		  CIS Department, University of Florida 32611
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
"X is just raster-op on wheels" - Bill Joy, January 1987

snoopy@sopwith.UUCP (Snoopy T. Beagle) (11/10/88)

In article <4069@encore.UUCP> bzs@encore.com (Barry Shein) writes:

|The problem with both of the above comments is that they are making
|the "best" the enemy of the "good".

On the other hand, one needs to be careful and not mistake some handy
piece of garbage for "good" and make it the enemy of the truely good.
There is altogether too much of that happening.  The trick is to determine
what one can accomplish, avoiding both the over-optimistic blue-sky ideas
and the under-optimistic stuck-in-the-mud ones.

I suspect that there are a lot of Jobs worshippers out there, who were
expecting something more than what he is delivering.  NeXT *is* a nice
step forwards.  It is not perfect.  There are things I would have done
differently.  If nothing else, "NeXT" is painful to type, and is ugly
to boot. :-)
    _____     
   /_____\    sn00py
  /_______\   
    |___|     tektronix!tekecs!sopwith!snoopy
    |___|     sun!nosun!illian!sopwith!snoopy

bowles@millar.UUCP (11/12/88)

> David Carlson writes:
> 
> I have no reason to doubt that this machine for "academia" is just the 
> Apple I for NeXT.  Its the NeXT II+ that I'm waiting for:  the machine
> for the rest of us.

I have problems with the idea that a $7K machine a good student machine.
Sure, if you are spending $10K a year in tuition alone, perhaps
your parents can see footing the bill for a $7K computer; if you're going
to some public school in the not-northeast, this is more money that you
might expect to spend for all expenses for a year or two.

The success of the Mac, initially, was that it was [more or less]
self-contained, it was intuitive, and although we all bitch about
the Apple pricing scheme, it was marginally affordable for interested
students. I can't see that NeXT does this, yet.

There's no question that the machine is pretty nice, but at the current
price, it's more reasonable to hope for schools to buy LOTS of them and
make them available --- not that "students" will buy them.

Perhaps that NeXT II+ might change this, but I have yet to see the second
edition of any machine that didn't raise the price.

	Jeff Bowles

kent@WSL.DEC.COM (11/12/88)

Nothing that I've seen written about the NeXT machine has said that
it's a "student" machine. It's always been called a "scholar's
workstation". Freshmen in college, anywhere, are not "scholars". 

If I have any gripes with the machine, they would be around the fact
that it's too self-contained. Yah, it's got lots of whizzy stuff and
I'd love to play with one, but I don't want a self-sufficient box any
more. I want a user interface engine that knows how to deal with a lot
of very powerful back ends. I don't want the collected works of
Shakespeare in my office -- I want them down on the literature server,
along with a full concordance, index, and commentaries.

I say a scholar's workstation should give you the power of a library at
your desk. That's what most scholars I know need.

chris

jtn@potomac.ads.com (John T. Nelson) (11/20/88)

>> I have no reason to doubt that this machine for "academia" is just the 
>> Apple I for NeXT.  Its the NeXT II+ that I'm waiting for:  the machine
>> for the rest of us.


Can anyone at NeXT comment on their plans for future machines if any?



-- 

John T. Nelson			UUCP: sun!sundc!potomac!jtn
Advanced Decision Systems	Internet:  jtn@potomac.ads.com
1500 Wilson Blvd #512; Arlington, VA 22209-2401		(703) 243-1611

Shar and Enjoy!