raburns%ecotopia@Sun.COM (Randy Burns) (07/07/89)
I've read some interesting things about using the Delphi Method to make forecasts. My understanding is that a group of people are asked a question (often about a predicted event unknown to them). The group then votes about what they predict the outcome will be, repeating until the group doesn't change its position from the previous vote. I've seen this topic dealt with in some novels (e.g. Shockwave Rider). What other research are folks familiar with? I am interested if anyone has seriously considered adding this functionality to USENET. This might consist of a program which would be active at a host site. A user might post a question via a program like postnews, except that all replies would be sent to a special account. Replies to the questionair sent to that account would be tabulated and a report would be sent out automatically (say weekly until a final report was made). Perhaps it has already been done?
klopfens@bgsuvax.UUCP (Bruce Klopfenstein) (07/07/89)
From article <114039@sun.Eng.Sun.COM>, by raburns%ecotopia@Sun.COM (Randy Burns): > > I've read some interesting things about using the Delphi Method to > make forecasts. My understanding is that a group of people are > asked a question (often about a predicted event unknown to them). > The group then votes about what they predict the outcome will be, > repeating until the group doesn't change its position from the > previous vote. > > I've seen this topic dealt with in some novels (e.g. Shockwave I have never conducted a Delphi study, but I have read about them. Delphi was developd, I believe, at the RAND Corporation in the 1960s. It's especially useful for making predictions about technology and experts who have some direct knowledge about the technology under study as well as the likelihood for breakthroughs are asked to make forecasts. A consensus is normally reached, but not necessary. If an expert or more do not go along with the consensus, then that is reflected in the ultimate forecast. Bruce Klopfenstein Bowling Green State University -- Dr. Bruce C. Klopfenstein | klopfens@andy.bgsu.edu Radio-TV-Film Department | klopfenstein@bgsuopie.bitnet Bowling Green $tate University | klopfens@bgsuvax.UUCP Bowling Green, OH 43403 | (419) 372-2138; 352-4818 | fax (419) 372-2300
reggie@dinsdale.nm.paradyne.com (George W. Leach) (07/07/89)
In article <114039@sun.Eng.Sun.COM> raburns%ecotopia@Sun.COM (Randy Burns) writes: >I've read some interesting things about using the Delphi Method to >make forecasts. My understanding is that a group of people are >asked a question (often about a predicted event unknown to them). >The group then votes about what they predict the outcome will be, >repeating until the group doesn't change its position from the >previous vote. See the following: Harold A. Linstone and Murray Turoff The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Reading MA 1975 Turoff was my MS Project Advisor and has been working in the area of computerized conferencing for about twenty years now. I know that he has utilized that medium for the purpose of conducting delphi decision making. However, I don't have any references on hand that I have read. There are a few listed as references in other papers that I have: Murray Turoff The design of a policy Delphi, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol 2, No 2, 1970, pp. 149-172 Murray Turoff Delphi Conferencing: Computer Computer Based Conferencing With Anonymity, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol 3, 1972, pp. 159-204 Note: this paper describes the very first computer conference according to another reference that I have. M. Turoff, S.R. Hiltz, and E.B. Kerr Controversies in the Design of Computer-Mediated Communications Systems: A Delphi Study, Proceedings of the NBS Conference on "Human Factors In Computer Systems", March 15-17, 1982 >I've seen this topic dealt with in some novels (e.g. Shockwave >Rider). What other research are folks familiar with? > For an overview of conferencing try, with a bit of futurism thrown in (in 1978 that is) try reading: Starr Roxanne Hiltz and Murray Turoff The Network Nation: Human Communication via Computer, Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Reading MA 1978 >I am interested if anyone has seriously considered adding >this functionality to USENET. This might consist of a program >which would be active at a host site. A user might post a question >via a program like postnews, except that all replies would be >sent to a special account. Replies to the questionair sent to >that account would be tabulated and a report would be sent out >automatically (say weekly until a final report was made). Perhaps >it has already been done? Yes, it has, but I don't know about USENET. Something else that you may find interesting: Starr Roxanne Hiltz, Murray Turoff, K. Johnson, and C. Aronovitch Equality, Dominance and Group Decision Making: Results of a Controlled Experiment on Face to Face Vs. Computer Mediated Discussions Proceedings of the Fifth International Conference on Computer Communication, Atlanta, USA, 27-30 October 1980, pp. 343-348 Murray Turoff An On-Line Intellectual Community or "MEMEX" Revisited Technological Forecasting and Social Change, V 10, 1977, pp. 401-412 Starr Roxanne Hiltz Impact of a Computerized Conferencing System upon Scientific Research Specialties Journal of Research Communication Studies V 1, 1978, pp. 111-124 George W. Leach AT&T Paradyne (uunet|att)!pdn!reggie Mail stop LG-133 Phone: 1-813-530-2376 P.O. Box 2826 FAX: 1-813-530-8224 Largo, FL USA 34649-2826