swett@PENTAGON-OPTI.ARMY.MIL ("SWETT, MR CHARLES/7037560500") (08/01/89)
From: OPTI::WINS%"<bzs@encore.com>" 31-JUL-1989 07:39
To: SWETT
Subj: please add me to mailing list. thanks.
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Date: Sat, 29 Jul 89 13:46:53 -0400
From: Barry Shein <bzs@encore.com>
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To: swett@pentagon-opti.army.mil
In-Reply-To: "SWETT, MR CHARLES/7037560500"'s message of 26 Jul 89 19:07:00 EDT <8907271251.AA02779@multimax.encore.com>
Subject: please add me to mailing list. thanks.
Hi, you sent that note to just me, not the list. It looked like you
wanted to send it to the whole info-futures list. I've saved it so
I'll put a copy at the end of this note so you can re-send to
info-futures@encore.com and share it with everyone. I'll hang onto it
here for a while so if you have any problems I can just forward it for
you (just drop me a note.)
It does sound like you're interested in just the kind of thing I wish
there was more discussion of on this list, technology forecasting
methodologies (as opposed to educated guessing, which is also of some
value if the guesser is truly educated.)
If you don't get a lot of response don't be discouraged, remember that
everyone is out at cape cod (la jolla, myrtle, quogue, etc) and didn't
bring their terminals to the beach, especially the academic crowd.
Don't hesitate to just try again in several weeks with the same
questions.
-Barry Shein
Software Tool & Die, Purveyors to the Trade
1330 Beacon Street, Brookline, MA 02146, (617) 739-0202
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Date: 26 Jul 89 19:07:00 EDT
From: "SWETT, MR CHARLES/7037560500" <swett@pentagon-opti.army.mil>
Subject: RE: please add me to mailing list. thanks.
To: "bzs" <bzs@encore.com>
I have always been interested in computer technology forecasting, and its
uses. In the late 1970's I was responsible for tracking trends in computer
technology at my company -- increases in cpu speed, decreases in the cost
per byte of online storage, improvements in the functionality of software,
etc. I collected lots of info from the open literature, particularly trade
magazines and journsals, in the form of charts showing the predicted
quantitative changes as a function of year. )Once I had accumulated a lot
of meaty charts, I took my briefing all around town, where it met with
universal applause. In fact, I got more career mileage out of what was
little more than a hobby than I got out of my mainstream assignments.
Such a collection of forecasts, when thoroughly briefed, gave a uniquyely
clear picture of what I call technology "vectors," i.e., what directions it
is headed and how fast. Designers and managers were especially excited about
it, because, in architecting large-scale systems whose acquisition and
operations fa phases lasted for many years, they were always in need of
estimates as to the future capability of advanced technology subsystems and
components, so that they could judge capacity, feasibility, and cost-
effectiveness. A job-change caused me to drop it, and I have recently become
interested in it again. However, the volume of computer technology forecast-
related information, particularly quantitative information, that I see in
the trade literature, is microscopic today compared to what it once was. I
am curious whether any folks on this discussion group know of any re cent
computer technology forecasts I can see, and what their ideas might be on
how managers and designers of complex systems can use them. In addition,
I am interested in your views on the potential for tapping the immense
pool of computer-related knowledge and experience enjoyed by the users of
this network, in order to create new, tailored technology forecasts, p;ossibly
through the use of the Delphi technique.