mad@math.keio.ac.jp (MAEDA Atusi) (03/05/90)
(I am posting this for a friend's friend.)
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A first cut at a bibliography of classic futures work
compiled by Tony Akins*, Feb 27 1990
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. "Looking Backward" by Edward Bellamy. Published by Signet
Classic, New York, 1960.
This is a novel which deposits a nineteenth century man
into the year 2000. The dialog between the protagonist
and the residents of the "future" allow the author to
describe the institutional structures of 1887 and his
would be utopian world of 2000. Hint: Bellamy's ideal
society is an interesting one, and is superb fuel for
interesting conversation.
. "The Challenge of Man's Future" by Harrison Brown.
Published by Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, 1984.
Proposes that the major problem faced by humanity today
is destabilization caused by 1) war, or 2)
over-population. Brown felt that our most probable
future is a dismal one. In the end, the agrarian
societies will stand the best chance of surviving any
catastrophe which halts man's industrial machine. Brown
does describe possible ways to solve the problems we
face.
. "The Shockwave Rider" by John Brunner. Published by
Ballantine Books, New York, 1976.
John Brunner wrote this novel after he read "Future
Shock." Brunner's work captures the dreams and
nightmares of Toffler's work and spins them into a
readable tale of the future.
. "The Art of Conjecture" by Bertrand de Jouvenel. Published by
Basic Books, Inc., New York, 1967.
This work is a basic primer for (would be) futurist. It
describes the discipline as an art or process where
non-linear "feelings" and sensitivities are required
rather than a structured scientific method approach.
. "The Year 2000" by Herman Kahn, and A. Weiner.
Establishes a broad framework (not a paradigm for
speculation) to outline a context for speculation about
large-scale, long term changes. It is an effort to
sketch constraints of social change. A historical
perspective to change is presented. A baseline,
transition scenarios, exacerbating trends, and arguments
for/against catastrophic change are presented.
Interesting side note: the research that resulted in
this work was sponsored by the Central Intelligence
Agency (CIA).
. "The Limits to Growth" by Dane Meadows. Published by Signet,
New York, 1972.
This study, sponsored by the Club of Rome, documents the
first use and results of models in simulating the major
global systems (population, resources, pollution, etc.).
Unabated, all scenarios resulted in global
dis-equilibrium; alternative actions which can achieve a
world equilibrium are presented. The purpose of this
work is to demonstrate that macro models can be used to
adequately simulate global systems. With information
about global dynamics and projections, one can take
responsibility and make a difference. The basic results
of the global models are in basic agreement with
Harrison Brown's earlier work, "The Challenge of Man's
Future."
. "MegaTrends" by John Naisbitt. Published by Warner Books, New
York, 1984.
One of the bestsellers of the 1980's, "MegaTrends"
outlines 10 basic trends that John Naisbitt feels will
be the major influencing factors of the 80's and 90's.
Naisbitt has recently published his follow on to
"MegaTrends", title "MegaTrends 2000"
. "The Image of the Future" by Fred Polak. Published by
Elsevier Scientific Publishing Co., New York, 1973.
This work shows that our images of the future play a
crucial role in shaping Western culture. Examples are
given of flowering cultures where there had been a
positive image of the future at work. When the opposite
occurred, when images of the future were weak, the
culture decayed as in the case with the fall of the
Roman Empire. Polak's concern is that modern society
has no positive image of the future, and that decay is
imminent unless a positive image is created and accepted
by society.
. "The Global Brain" by Peter Russell. Published by J.P.
Tarcher, Inc., Los Angeles, 1983.
Speculates on the evolutionary leap to planetary
consciousness. Humanity is portrayed like a vast
nervous system, a global brain in which each of us are
the individual nerve cells. Technology can spread
exponentially, the word and methods (meditation) of
enlightenment to the masses to preclude possible
breakdown into chaos and maybe extinction, and encourage
new levels of evolutionary development. The purpose of
the work is to provide a new vision of self (and
societal) realization.
. "Last and First Men" and "Starmaker" by Olaf Stapledon.
Published by Dover, New York, 1968.
"Last and First Men" records the plight of man (or some
semblance thereof) from present day forward for billions
and billions of years. Man is locked into a recurring
death defying "adventure". The purpose of the work is
to convey the message that man should not give up the
fight for human survival because not only the outcome
but more importantly the fight itself will have far more
future implications for the race than we can ever know.
"Starmaker" records the development of an external
"Christian-like" God model that creates and adds (and
then learns from) successively "better" cosmos
experiments/toys to the universe. This vision is
presented to the reader to convey that there is
"meaning" to it all (the cosmos). The purpose of the
work is the author's recognition that the coming war in
Europe is probably inevitable, but do not despair as the
side that wants growth (as opposed to repression and
stagnation) must prevail so that man can continue to
strive on through the evolutionary stages - just as the
Star Maker strives on through his evolution to the
"eternal view".
. "Future Shock" by Alvin Toffler. Published by Bantam Books,
New York, 1970.
Toffler's first major bestseller out lines the disease
of rapid change. "Future Shock" is a reaction to the
rapid and ever increasing rate of change we all feel in
today's world. Painting a dismal picture of the future,
he does outline some potential positive outcomes of
rapid change.
. "The Third Wave" by Alvin Toffler. Published by Bantam Books,
New York, 1981.
Somewhat of a follow on to his earlier work "Future
Shock", "The Third Wave" outlines the move from an
agriculture based society (the first wave) to the
industrial based society (the second wave) to an
information based society (the third wave), and provides
hints and guidelines for what a Third Wave society may
offer.
* sad to say I currently have read only access to Usenet
and its brethren. If you wish to contact me, feel free
to call me at US telephone number 713-282-8525. I will
also be watching this digest, so you can append your
thoughts here as well. - Tony Akins, Feb 27 1990josh@klaatu.rutgers.edu (J Storrs Hall) (03/06/90)
I think this bibliography is of very limited scope, and doesn't begin to touch the true futures literature. Many of the books mentioned, particularly "Looking Backward", "Challange of Man's Future", and "Limits to Growth", are politically motivated apologia for totalitarian dictatorship. Looking Backward was quite influential--one might say that the Communist Soviet state was based on its model. Looking backward on Looking Backward, I think we can say that its promises were empty and its model of working social structures hopelessly naive. Yet Looking Backward is the only true classic of futurology on the list. How could one place Stapledon on such a list and ignore H.G.Wells' "Time Machine", "When the Sleeper Wakes", and "The Shape of Things to Come"? Or Heinlein's future history? I reccomend Panshin's "World Beyond the Hill" as a good overview of science fiction that relegates Stapledon to his appropriate status. No such list can be considered started, much less complete, without Clarke's "Profiles of the Future". I would also throw in Drexler's "Engines of Creation" and Moravec's "Mind Children", for some more recent insights. --JoSH