bzs@world.std.com (Barry Shein) (08/15/90)
From: uc!cs.umn.edu!msi-s0.msi.umn.edu!meuer@tut.cis.ohio-state.edu (meuer) >I agree for the most part. But do you think that lowering the costs >would cut way back on illegal copying? Do you think that most people >who now copy a $500 program would buy it if it only cost $20? It >would still only cost them the price of a floppy to copy it. Granted, >it might ease the problem a little, but I would guess that it wouldn't >even make a big dent in it. Of course now we've lept into guesswork on how much is enough. The example of Borland/Turbo- languages came up. I guess the impression is that they charge under $100 for (C, Pascal, etc?) or thereabouts and don't seem to complain about piracy problems (who knows for sure.) Of course, they give you more than just floppies, there's the manuals etc. I guess the best you can do, as a marketeer, is assume there is this "curve" where I can plot price against what percentage of people will pirate my software (or even just go to a competitor or do without it, really the same thing as far as the bottom line is concerned once it's done.) Then I have another "line" on my graph which represents the cost/benefit of chasing after pirates. Here's a uuencoded xfig graph of how I'd roughly expect the lines to look: --------------------cut here-------------------- begin 644 piracy.xfig M(T9)1R`R+C`*.#`@,@HR(#$@,2`R(#`@,"`P(#`@-"XP,#`@,"`P"@D@,3$T M(#0R-"`U,#D@,S8Y(#8Y-"`W.2`Y.3DY(#DY.3D*,B`Q(#`@,2`P(#`@,"`P M(#`N,#`P(#$@,`H),"`P(#$N,#`P(#0N,#`P(#@N,#`P"@D@-SD@-34Y(#8W M.2`U-3D@.3DY.2`Y.3DY"C(@,2`P(#$@,"`P(#`@,"`P+C`P,"`P(#$*"3`@ M,"`Q+C`P,"`T+C`P,"`X+C`P,`H)(#<Y(#<Y(#<Y(#4U.2`Y.3DY(#DY.3D* M,R`R(#`@,R`P(#`@,"`P(#`N,#`P(#`@,`H)(#<Y(#4U-"`Q,3D@-#<Y(#4U M.2`S,3D@-3DY(#(W.2`V,SD@,3DY(#8U.2`Q,3D@-C8T(#<Y(#DY.3D@.3DY M.0H)(#`N,#`P(#`N,#`P(#DV+C(W."`U,#@N-SDR(#$P-BXR-S@@-#DP+C`T M,B`R,3(N-#,S(#,Y-RXY,#8@-#8S+C@X,B`S-SDN-3<W(#4W,"XT.3,@,S$Q M+C8X,2`U.3$N,C,P(#(X.2XW.#`@-C$Q+C(X-2`R-C$N.34U(#8S,2XX,CD@ M,C$X+C,X-B`V-#4N-C$R(#$X,2XQ,C<@-C4U+C4S-2`Q,S<N-30W(#8V,"XR M-S`@,3$R+C(P,"`V-C$N-3(P(#$P,BXR,#`@,"XP,#`@,"XP,#`*-"`P(#$X M(#$T(#`@,"`P(#`N,#`P(#$@,30@,3@V(#4Q-"`S-SD@8V]S="]B96YE9FET M(&]F('!R;W-E8W5T:6]N`0HT(#`@,3@@,30@,"`P(#`@,"XP,#`@,2`Q,"`R M.2`S.2`Q-30@,S`E`0HT(#`@,3@@,30@,"`P(#`@,"XP,#`@,2`Q,"`R.2`T M-"`R,S0@,C4E`0HT(#`@,3@@,30@,"`P(#`@,"XP,#`@,2`Q,"`R.2`S.2`S M,30@,C`E`0HT(#`@,3@@,30@,"`P(#`@,"XP,#`@,2`Q,"`R.2`S.2`S.30@ M,34E`0HT(#`@,3@@,30@,"`P(#`@,"XP,#`@,2`Q,"`R.2`S.2`T-S0@,3`E M`0HT(#`@,3@@,30@,"`P(#`@,"XP,#`@,2`Q,R`U.3(@-SD@-3DY("0P("`@ M("`@)#,P("`@("0V,"`@("`D.3`@("`@)#$R,"`@)#$U,"`@)#$X,"`@)#(Q M,"`@)#(S,"`@)#(V,"`@)#(W,"`@)#,P,"`@)#,S,"`@)#,V,"`@)#,Y,`$* M-"`Q(#$X(#$T(#`@,"`P(#`N,#`P(#$@,30@,3(W(#@T(#4T(%!I<F%C>2!0 M97)C96YT86=E`0HT(#$@,3@@,30@,"`P(#`@,"XP,#`@,2`Q,2`S-B`W,S0@ +-34Y(%!R:6-E`0HT ` end --------------------cut here-------------------- The increments of course are arbitrary, it's just to illustrate a point. You could multiply all the $$ figures by 10 or divide by 10 for different markets, etc. At zero dollars no one will steal it, then we jump at some non-trivial price like $30 (people with basically no money, students, office workers with no budget, etc.) Then we slowly move upwards as the price rises. At some point most people think the price is ridiculous and don't feel that unjustified "borrowing" a copy, particularly if their use of the product is casual or occasional ("hey, I hate Lotus, I use Excel...it's just that the guy down the hall sends me his quarterlies as Lotus files, I'm not gonna spend $500 to just read 50 numbers a year!", just an example, I know some of these products can read each others files, please.) The cost/benefit is such that at low prices it's not at all worthwhile to chase anyone, it's like herding cats. At some point it might be somewhat cost effective to at least send nasty threatening letters to companies you suspect have bought one copy of your software but have pirated it all over their offices, the price is still low enough that they might be moved to run out and buy some copies. As the price rises you have a lot more people to threaten and it probably takes much stronger threats before anyone will buy it. Most will probably just be scared out of *using* it illegally and delete their copy, which is of no economic benefit to you really. You would get that effect at universities if you pressed them on students using two thousand dollar WYSIWYG packages w/o licenses, at best they'd just delete them, very unlikely they'd plunk down $100K for 50 licenses to make them honest. Anyhow, just a "for discussion" example. >I don't see police enforcing the law as a "government subsidy." >Whether or not the costs of a program are justified, it is not right >for people to steal it if they can't afford it. I think it's fair for taxpayers to look hard at spending billions on anything. It's a nice fantasy to think that the law should be this unlimited resource that should be applied without restraint to any injustice we perceive. Unfortunately, it just ain't so. Either you're spending a lot more on delivering that legal enforcement or you better be prepared to get "no answer" when you call your local police dept because everyone is out raiding some software pirates. Even today in most cities it's already nearly impossible to get anyone in the police dept interested in your burglary or stolen car, they just take some notes and throw it in the backlog. Perhaps you haven't experienced this? You can't just hand-wave the issue away, it's very real, and groups like SPA are pressing to have *A LOT* of govt money spent on these matters, which means either higher taxes or less interest in your concerns, no way out of it. >I don't see any easy way out of this either. How can software >companies produce high-quality programs and be fairly reimbursed for >their work? Well, the real question might be is it up to us to throw tax monies at the problem? Or just let them work it out. Life's tough, of course having the police ensure your profits, at virtually no cost to you (spread out to millions of other taxpayers), makes business easier. I guess you either believe they will come up with ideas, given the motivation, or you don't. We can speculate on some possibilities (I already have), but I suspect there are many innovative things that can be done. A pessimist would say it would ruin things, an optimist would say it would make things interesting, cause new evolution in the industry. >This is an interesting thread. Thanks for bringing it up. I try. -Barry Shein Software Tool & Die | {xylogics,uunet}!world!bzs | bzs@world.std.com Purveyors to the Trade | Voice: 617-739-0202 | Login: 617-739-WRLD