DAVISM@ATSUVAX1.BITNET ("Michael N. Davis") (02/13/91)
Hello to all you futurists out there, I need some advice. I'm at a point where I'm evaluating what direction to point my computing skills. The computing field is going to change so much in just the next 5 years that's its difficult to see where one should go. One writer in Information Week magazine recently suggested that if current trends continue, the PC increasing performance graph line will cross the mainframe's increasing performance graph line in 1996. That kind of power on a desktop will provide the kind of performance needed for real friendly software interfaces and operating systems that can be almost totally managed by non-technical users. With such friendly smart systems will there be a need for system managers, systems analysts, programmer analysts, operations staff, etc. in the general market place? If the software is easy enough and powerful enough to use, why would you need all those people. I'm a system manager for a large VAXcluster shop with 20GB of disk storage supporting over 2000 users, but I can see the equipment in my computer room shrinking 70% each time a machine is replaced. Even now all the things that the faculty and students do on our machines could be done on PCs. When a 486 tower can hold several 1GB disk drives now, what does that say about my "big" computer center? In trying to sort this out, I see computer jobs in the future shifting into three areas: network management, training/support, and software development companies. Networks will continue to grow rapidly and will need good people to manage them. Users will need mostly training and some guidance about setting up their data in accordance with a companies needs, but I don't think they will need application developers per se as the average user is becoming quite sophisticated in using computers and software is becoming quite friendly. (Those who can't or won't compute will unfortunately be unable to keep up with their peers.) It seems to me that eventually only software houses will be doing major programming/application development. If you want to do that kind of work then you will have to work for one of them, but I think the general business market place will not need large amounts of development people. So what is going to happen to the computer job market in the next ten years? What area do you develop your skills in? My current expertise will definitely be extinct in 10 years as the VAX will be dead. If PC application packages will be the thing in the next five years which one do you choose to learn? Today's database brand may be tomorrow's dog in just a few years. Though I have extensive experience in relational systems (ORACLE DBA and developer, INGRES work, etc.) I have no experience with object-oriented databases coming to the fore now. So the bottom line is what do I choose to do now to prepare for the future. Have I missed any future job areas other than network management, training/support, and software houses? I'm kind of leaning toward training/support. At least in this kind of job you will be trained on whatever latest package the company chooses thus keeping up with the latest technology. Network management would be technically interesting though over the next ten years difficult as the technology matures. The hassles I have had in dealing with network vendors has been from frustrating to the utter ridiculous. This state of the art area is a total zoo not for the faint-hearted. Software development might be quite interesting but working on one product line in one programming language might make you too focused on one narrow area leaving you vulnerable should your product be replaced by another company's more conceptually advanced product leaving you in the dust with old concepts and possibly old programming techniques. So futurists, I'm interested in what you think the future holds for computer people and what you might advise one who doesn't quite want to become extinct yet. Thanks for your coming answers. _-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_ Michael N. Davis, System Manager, NC A&T State University, Greensboro, NC 27411 BITNET: DAVISM@ATSUVAX1
ghm@ccadfa.adfa.oz.au (Geoff Miller) (02/14/91)
DAVISM@ATSUVAX1.BITNET ("Michael N. Davis") writes: [much abbreviated] >...With such friendly smart systems will >there be a need for system managers, systems analysts, programmer analysts, >operations staff, etc. in the general market place? >In trying to sort this out, I see computer jobs in the future shifting >into three areas: network management, training/support, and software >development companies. I think there will be a growing market for what I would call "Information Engineers". This discipline will involve elements of programming, systems analysis and all the other computing skills, so people with computing training and experience will have a head start. However, Information Engineering is not just writing computer programs, but it is much more about how information is used within an organisation, who needs access to what, and generally about how to add value to the information resources which an organisation already has. I agree that the traditional computing jobs will retreat into specialised niches or disappear altogether (as is already happening with computer operators), but as this happens other possibilities open up. Geoff Miller (ghm@cc.adfa.oz.au) Computer Centre, Australian Defence Force Academy
fozzard@alumni.colorado.edu (Richard Fozzard) (02/15/91)
In article <9102131606.AA12900@world.std.com> DAVISM@ATSUVAX1.BITNET ("Michael N. Davis") writes: >I need some advice. I'm at a point where I'm evaluating what direction >to point my computing skills. The computing field is going to change so >much in just the next 5 years that's its difficult to see where one should >go. > I agree that there will be a shift in the sorts of skills that will be in demand. And I agree with most of your points, but have just a couple of disagreements. >totally managed by non-technical users. With such friendly smart systems will >there be a need for system managers, systems analysts, programmer analysts, >operations staff, etc. in the general market place? If the software is easy >enough and powerful enough to use, why would you need all those people. I'm > Sure, easier software allows a single manager to serve more users, but I think the number of active users is increasing far faster than the ability of system managers to support them. We certainly see that here at NOAA, where we are constantly replacing the old behemoths (Vaxes, etc.) with Suns and Macs. Even though the system management is easier, and more software is available off-the-shelf, we still are hiring system people and programmers like crazy. (Of course, these are Unix and Mac types, not the older, dying types such as VMS or DOS.) As people find they can do more with their machines, their demands simply become greater, consequently requiring greater support. >up with their peers.) It seems to me that eventually only software >houses will be doing major programming/application development. If you >want to do that kind of work then you will have to work for one of them, >but I think the general business market place will not need large amounts >of development people. So what is going to happen to the computer job As above, people's expectations will continue to rise. I believe that there will be GREATER demand for in-house development to do specific things that no generic software house can provide, even in the most feature-laden applications. In fact, even if they do provide it, a simpler in-house app with just the features needed is more likely to succeed. A recent (and long overdue) trend towards modularization and interapplication communication (Windows DDE, Apple IAC, NewWave, etc.) may actually create quite a demand for knowledgeable folks to actually assemble custom apps (actually "environments") from the right components. Another trend is the user-programmability seen in tools like HyperCard or ToolBook - another fast, simple way to develop in-house apps or info sources (same thing!?), that is (unfortunately) still just a bit too hard to use for the busy user. rich -- ======================================================================== Richard Fozzard "Serendipity empowers" Univ of Colorado/CIRES/NOAA R/E/FS 325 Broadway, Boulder, CO 80303 fozzard@boulder.colorado.edu (303)497-6011 or 444-3168
bzs@world.std.com (Barry Shein) (02/17/91)
>So futurists, I'm interested in what you think the future holds for computer >people and what you might advise one who doesn't quite want to become >extinct yet. I will guess that throughout this decade networks become more and more invisible, analogous to phone systems. LANs will come to resemble in-house phone switches (which themselves will probably become less common as the phone system offers equivalent service from their central switches, this is happening already), and WAN/MAN* service will come from a modular jack in your wall. You'll unpack a computer, plug it into the power outlet, then the information outlet, and off you'll go. * WAN = Wide Area Network, MAN = Metropolitan Area Network Network management and servicing is quickly becoming analogous to other utility functions like electricity, you just want the plug, not the physical plant (generator etc.) These trends are already clear (ISDN, Frame-Relay, SMDS etc.), the only real question is whether the Telcos (PTTs) will get their acts together enough to cause people to give up on their own networks. The trend to twisted-pair media and fiber is also telling (that is, this is cheap stuff attractive to the sort of people who wire entire cities.) A driving force is the fact that you will come to expect more and more access to real information, and that information will be naturally elsewhere. The phone companies can make the economics work by providing customer billing services (analogous to 900 service.) I view CD/ROMs as important, but limited. Similar to the book collection you have at home, you will forever need to get that one thing you don't own, it will be a tiny subset of what could be a several hundred or several thousand dollar CD/ROM, so you'll be happy to pay a few cents to just look it up rather than own the whole thing. Note that I don't think that services "out there" will use CD/ROMs to hold information, it's ultimately a personal computer technology for the foreseeable future (which is fine.) So I suspect that corporate networks as a technical career may already be peaking as a possibility as this function moves more and more towards "outsourcing", just buying it as a service. One software development growth area I foreseee will be tying all these interfaces together. You will want a link in your spread-sheet to point to a piece of data in an information library somewhere far away. Same with document processing. A lot of the visions of Ted Nelson (see, for example, "Literary Machines") will come to fruition and you will create and manipulate documents which point all over the place, transparently. Consider all the formats etc out there! Navigators will become big business as corporations become frustrated with having to change gears between a zillion different lookup/query/format interfaces all over the place. Same for general network integration (tho that might be mostly done by the telcos, or enforced by their own standards for hook-up.) Software will be developed which enables real on-line business, RFP's will be posted electronically and vendors will return fulfillment bids electronically. Software to do this quickly and easily will become a powerful competitive tool. A lot of this is happening already in the EDI world. Also, expect growth in the network security area as this sort of thing grows. Another area of development I expect will be "retrofitting" of useful, big-computer applications as desktop power allows anyone to run them. What we today call high-end CAD/CAM systems will be re-used on the desktop for fairly mundane activities (moving the furniture around the office?) Fancy 3-D rendering and animation systems will be re-used for making notes, creating e-mail messages on how to get to the office christmas party, meeting presentations, on-line brainstorming by marketing types ("how about a flyer that looks like this, with the floppies in the pocket, it opens like so...") etc. Anything which automates the placing of information on-line and making it useful will become big business in the upcoming information gold-rush, people re-selling dusty folders they've had lying around for years, marketing surveys, service and user manuals, price lists, catalogues, etc. It's tedious to make indices, format the information, scan it in. It's 99% of the cost-of-entry into that business, anything to reduce up-front costs will be popular. Re-working, re-organizing and summarizing raw information will become a more and more major business as people get inundated and lost by what's available. -- -Barry Shein Software Tool & Die | bzs@world.std.com | uunet!world!bzs Purveyors to the Trade | Voice: 617-739-0202 | Login: 617-739-WRLD