mathis@boulder.Colorado.EDU (Don Mathis) (12/05/89)
RESULTS OF THE FOOTBALL NEURAL NET: WEEK 13 ***************************************************************************** * The football neural net ranks football teams based on the following system: * * Goals: * 1. If teams A and B play head-to-head, then the winner should be * ranked higher. * 2. If teams A and B don't play head-to-head, but both play team C, * then whoever beats team C by more points should be ranked higher. * * System: * 1. Assign to each team a numerical "quality value". * 2. IF TEAMS A AND B PLAY HEAD-TO HEAD, THEN THE WINNER'S QUALITY VALUE * SHOULD EXCEED THE LOSER'S BY AN AMOUNT EQUAL TO THE POINT DIFFERENCE * IN THE GAME. * 3. Find a quality value for each team that satisfies the above * requirement as closely as possible. * * Notes: * 1. This system achieves the two goals as well as mathematically possible. * 2. By "as well as mathematically possible", I mean that the system finds * a least-squares solution to the linear system defined by the equation * described in System.2. * ****************************************************************************** |------------------| |------------------| | Week 12 Rankings | | Week 13 Rankings | |------------------| |------------------| Quality W/L Quality W/L Rank Team Value Record Rank Team Value Record ---- ---- -------- ------ ---- ---- ------ ------ #1 Denver 10.5 10-2 #1 Denver 9.8 10-3 #2 San Francisco 9.5 10-2 #2 San Francisco 8.9 11-2 #3 Cleveland 6.9 7-4-1 #3 Cincinnati 6.2 7-6 #4 Philadelphia 4.9 8-4 #4 Philadelphia 5.5 9-4 #5 Cincinnati 4.6 6-6 #5 Cleveland 5.4 7-5-1 #6 Buffalo 4.5 8-4 #6 L.A.Raiders 4.6 7-6 #7 L.A.Rams 4.5 8-4 #7 N.Y.Giants 4.1 9-4 #8 N.Y.Giants 4.4 9-3 #8 Buffalo 3.9 8-5 #9 Chicago 3.8 6-6 #9 L.A.Rams 3.2 9-4 #10 L.A.Raiders 3.7 6-6 #10 Minnesota 3.2 8-5 #11 Washington 2.3 6-6 #11 Chicago 3.1 6-7 #12 Kansas City 2.3 5-6-1 #12 Washington 3.1 7-6 #13 Minnesota 2.1 7-5 #13 Kansas City 2.3 6-6-1 #14 New Orleans 2.0 6-6 #14 New Orleans 0.8 6-7 #15 Houston 0.6 7-5 #15 Houston 0.7 8-5 #16 Indianapolis 0.5 6-6 #16 Indianapolis -0.5 6-7 #17 San Diego -1.2 4-8 #17 Green Bay -1.5 8-5 #18 Green Bay -1.6 7-5 #18 San Diego -1.8 4-9 #19 Tampa Bay -3.2 5-7 #19 Seattle -2.9 5-8 #20 Seattle -3.3 4-8 #20 Tampa Bay -3.1 5-8 #21 Miami -4.2 7-5 #21 Miami -4.1 7-6 #22 New England -5.3 4-8 #22 New England -4.6 5-8 #23 Pittsburgh -5.4 6-6 #23 Pittsburgh -5.4 6-7 #24 Phoenix -6.1 5-7 #24 Detroit -5.7 4-9 #25 Detroit -7.1 3-9 #25 Phoenix -6.7 5-8 #26 N.Y.Jets -7.4 3-9 #26 N.Y.Jets -7.0 4-9 #27 Atlanta -9.7 3-9 #27 Atlanta -9.8 3-10 #28 Dallas -12.5 1-11 #28 Dallas -11.7 1-12 HOW THE NET DID THIS WEEK: _______________________________________________________________________________ | Vegas | Net's | Net's| Game |ATS| Net's | Vegas | Pure | Vegas| Game | Spread | Spread | Bet | Score |W/L| Error | Error | W/L | W/L | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Buf/Sea | Buf 5.5 | Buf 7.9 | Buf | Sea 1 | L | 8.9 | 6.5 | L | L | Cin/Cle | Cle 4 | Cle 2.2 | Cin | Cin21 | W | 23.2 | 25.0 | L | L | Den/Rai | Rai 2 | Den 6.8 | Den | Rai 3 | L | 9.8 | 1.0 | L | W | Hou/Pit | Hou 3 | Hou 6.0 | Hou | Hou 7 | W | 1.0 | 4.0 | W | W | Ind/NE | NE 1.5 | Ind 5.8 | Ind | NE 6 | L | 11.8 | 4.5 | L | W | KC/Mia | KC 4 | KC 6.5 | KC | KC 5 | W | 1.5 | 1.0 | W | W | Jet/SD | SD 5.5 | SD 6.2 | SD | Jet 3 | L | 9.2 | 8.5 | L | L | Atl/SF | SF 9.5 | SF 19.2 | SF | SF 13 | W | 6.2 | 3.5 | W | W | Chi/Min | Min 6 | Chi 1.6 | Chi | Min11 | L | 12.6 | J5.0 | L | W | Dal/Ram | Ram 9.5 | Ram 17.1 | Ram | Ram 4 | L | 13.1 | 5.5 | W | W | Det/NO | NO 4 | NO 9.1 | NO | Det 7 | L | 16.1 | 11.0 | L | L | GB/TB | GB 2.5 | GB 1.6 | TB | GB 1 | W | 0.6 | 1.5 | W | W | Gia/Phi | Gia 3 | Phi 0.5 | Phi | Phi 7 | W | 6.5 | 10.0 | W | L | Pho/Was | Was 4.5 | Was 8.4 | Was | Was19 | W | 8.6 | 14.5 | W | W | W/L against the spread: 7-7 Pure W/L for the net: 7-7 Pure W/L for Vegas: 9-5 Net's avg error: 9.2 points per game Vegas avg error: 7.3 points per game Notes: The net finally broke .500 ! (It still predicts lousy) But hey, it picked Philly over the Giants! PREDICTIONS FOR WEEK 14: Buffalo vs. New Orleans => Buffalo by 3.1 Cincinnati vs. Seattle => Cincinnati by 9.1 Cleveland vs. Indianapolis => Cleveland by 5.9 Denver vs. N.Y.Giants => Denver by 5.6 Houston vs. Tampa Bay => Houston by 3.8 Kansas City vs. Green Bay => Kansas City by 3.8 L.A.Raiders vs. Phoenix => L.A.Raiders by 11.3 Miami vs. New England => Miami by 0.6 N.Y.Jets vs. Pittsburgh => Pittsburgh by 1.6 San Diego vs. Washington => Washington by 4.9 Atlanta vs. Minnesota => Minnesota by 12.9 Chicago vs. Detroit => Chicago by 8.8 Dallas vs. Philadelphia => Philadelphia by 17.2 L.A.Rams vs. San Francisco => San Francisco by 5.7 Highest quality game: Denver vs. N.Y.Giants. Total quality = 13.9 Lowest quality game: N.Y.Jets vs. Pittsburgh. Total quality = -12.4 Most evenly matched game: Miami vs. New England. Difference in quality = 0.6 Most lopsided game: Dallas vs. Philadelphia. Difference in quality = 17.2