mathis@boulder.Colorado.EDU (Don Mathis) (11/28/89)
RESULTS OF THE FOOTBALL NEURAL NET: WEEK 12 |------------------| |------------------| | Week 11 Rankings | | Week 12 Rankings | |------------------| |------------------| Quality W/L Quality W/L Rank Team Value Record Rank Team Value Record ---- ---- -------- ------ ---- ---- ------ ------ #1 San Francisco 9.0 9-2 #1 Denver 10.5 10-2 #2 Cleveland 8.6 7-3-1 #2 San Francisco 9.5 10-2 #3 Denver 8.2 9-2 #3 Cleveland 6.9 7-4-1 #4 Chicago 6.7 6-5 #4 Philadelphia 4.9 8-4 #5 Cincinnati 6.6 6-5 #5 Cincinnati 4.6 6-6 #6 L.A.Rams 4.8 7-4 #6 Buffalo 4.5 8-4 #7 N.Y.Giants 4.2 9-2 #7 L.A.Rams 4.5 8-4 #8 Houston 4.0 7-4 #8 N.Y.Giants 4.4 9-3 #9 Philadelphia 3.6 7-4 #9 Chicago 3.8 6-6 #10 L.A.Raiders 3.5 5-6 #10 L.A.Raiders 3.7 6-6 #11 Buffalo 3.3 7-4 #11 Washington 2.3 6-6 #12 Minnesota 3.0 7-4 #12 Kansas City 2.3 5-6-1 #13 New Orleans 2.0 6-5 #13 Minnesota 2.1 7-5 #14 Indianapolis -0.0 5-6 #14 New Orleans 2.0 6-6 #15 Washington -0.4 5-6 #15 Houston 0.6 7-5 #16 Kansas City -0.8 4-6-1 #16 Indianapolis 0.5 6-6 #17 San Diego -1.4 4-7 #17 San Diego -1.2 4-8 #18 Green Bay -1.4 6-5 #18 Green Bay -1.6 7-5 #19 Miami -2.1 7-4 #19 Tampa Bay -3.2 5-7 #20 Tampa Bay -2.3 4-7 #20 Seattle -3.3 4-8 #21 Seattle -3.0 4-7 #21 Miami -4.2 7-5 #22 New England -5.8 4-7 #22 New England -5.3 4-8 #23 Phoenix -6.5 5-6 #23 Pittsburgh -5.4 6-6 #24 Pittsburgh -6.6 5-6 #24 Phoenix -6.1 5-7 #25 Detroit -7.8 2-9 #25 Detroit -7.1 3-9 #26 Atlanta -8.3 3-8 #26 N.Y.Jets -7.4 3-9 #27 N.Y.Jets -8.8 2-9 #27 Atlanta -9.7 3-9 #28 Dallas -12.3 1-10 #28 Dallas -12.5 1-11 HOW THE NET DID THIS WEEK: _______________________________________________________________________________ | Vegas | Net's | Net's| Game |ATS| Net's | Vegas | Pure | Vegas| Game | Spread | Spread | Bet | Score |W/L| Error | Error | W/L | W/L | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Buf/Cin | Buf 3 | Cin 3.2 | Cin | Buf17 | L | 20.2 | 20.0 | L | W | Cle/Det | Cle 6 | Cle 16.5 | Cle | Det 3 | L | 19.5 | 9.0 | L | L | Den/Sea | Den 9 | Den 11.2 | Den | Den27 | W | 15.8 | 18.0 | W | W | Hou/KC | Hou 1.5 | Hou 4.9 | Hou | KC 34 | L | 38.9 | 35.5 | L | L | Ind/SD | Ind 4 | Ind 1.4 | SD | Ind 4 | T | 2.6 | 0.0 | W | W | Rai/NE | Rai 6.5 | Rai 9.3 | Rai | Rai 3 | L | 6.3 | 3.5 | W | W | Mia/Pit | Mia 8 | Mia 4.4 | Pit | Pit20 | W | 24.4 | 28.0 | L | L | Jet/Atl | Jet 2 | Atl 0.5 | Atl | Jet20 | L | 20.5 | 18.0 | L | W | Chi/Was | Was 2 | Chi 7.1 | Chi | Was24 | L | 31.1 | 22.0 | L | W | Dal/Phi | Phi 6 | Phi 15.8 | Phi | Phi27 | W | 11.2 | 21.0 | W | W | GB/Min | Min 3 | Min 4.4 | Min | GB 1 | L | 5.4 | 4.0 | L | L | Ram/NO | NO 1 | Ram 2.9 | Ram | Ram 3 | W | 0.1 | 4.0 | W | L | Gia/SF | SF 5.5 | SF 4.8 | Gia | SF 10 | L | 5.2 | 4.5 | W | W | Pho/TB | Pho 1.5 | TB 4.2 | TB | TB 1 | W | 3.2 | 2.5 | W | L | W/L against the spread: 5-8-1 Pure W/L for the net: 7-7 Pure W/L for Vegas: 8-6 Net's avg error: 14.6 points per game Vegas avg error: 13.6 points per game Notes: 1) The net did LOUSY against the spread, AGAIN. 2) BUT it predicted nearly as well as the Vegas spread. PREDICTIONS FOR WEEK 13: Buffalo vs. Seattle => Buffalo by 7.9 Cincinnati vs. Cleveland => Cleveland by 2.2 Denver vs. L.A.Raiders => Denver by 6.8 Houston vs. Pittsburgh => Houston by 6.0 Indianapolis vs. New England => Indianapolis by 5.8 Kansas City vs. Miami => Kansas City by 6.5 N.Y.Jets vs. San Diego => San Diego by 6.2 Atlanta vs. San Francisco => San Francisco by 19.2 Chicago vs. Minnesota => Chicago by 1.6 Dallas vs. L.A.Rams => L.A.Rams by 17.1 Detroit vs. New Orleans => New Orleans by 9.1 Green Bay vs. Tampa Bay => Green Bay by 1.6 N.Y.Giants vs. Philadelphia => Philadelphia by 0.5 Phoenix vs. Washington => Washington by 8.4 Highest quality game: Denver vs. L.A.Raiders. Total quality = 14.2 Lowest quality game: N.Y.Jets vs. San Diego. Total quality = -8.6 Most evenly matched game: N.Y.Giants vs. Philadelphia. Difference in quality = 0.5 Most lopsided game: Atlanta vs. San Francisco. Difference in quality = 19.2
ahlgren@stkfso.enet.dec.com (Paul Ahlgren) (11/29/89)
What is the Football Neural net? Could someone explain to a newcomer... ******************************************** Document it? ** ** ** Paul Ahlgren ** MY code doesn't have to be ** ** documented, it's self- ** Digital Equipment Corporation ** explanatory! ** Customer Services Operation ** ** Sweden ** ** ** Phone [46]-(8)-733 80 00 ********************************************
lbaum@bcsaic.UUCP (Larry Baum) (12/01/89)
In article <14281@boulder.Colorado.EDU; mathis@boulder.Colorado.EDU (Don Mathis) writes:
;
;RESULTS OF THE FOOTBALL NEURAL NET: WEEK 12
;
;
; |------------------| |------------------|
; | Week 11 Rankings | | Week 12 Rankings |
; |------------------| |------------------|
;
; Quality W/L Quality W/L
;Rank Team Value Record Rank Team Value Record
;---- ---- -------- ------ ---- ---- ------ ------
;#1 San Francisco 9.0 9-2 #1 Denver 10.5 10-2
;#2 Cleveland 8.6 7-3-1 #2 San Francisco 9.5 10-2
;#3 Denver 8.2 9-2 #3 Cleveland 6.9 7-4-1
;#4 Chicago 6.7 6-5 #4 Philadelphia 4.9 8-4
;#5 Cincinnati 6.6 6-5 #5 Cincinnati 4.6 6-6
;#6 L.A.Rams 4.8 7-4 #6 Buffalo 4.5 8-4
;#7 N.Y.Giants 4.2 9-2 #7 L.A.Rams 4.5 8-4
;#8 Houston 4.0 7-4 #8 N.Y.Giants 4.4 9-3
;#9 Philadelphia 3.6 7-4 #9 Chicago 3.8 6-6
;#10 L.A.Raiders 3.5 5-6 #10 L.A.Raiders 3.7 6-6
;#11 Buffalo 3.3 7-4 #11 Washington 2.3 6-6
;#12 Minnesota 3.0 7-4 #12 Kansas City 2.3 5-6-1
;#13 New Orleans 2.0 6-5 #13 Minnesota 2.1 7-5
;#14 Indianapolis -0.0 5-6 #14 New Orleans 2.0 6-6
;#15 Washington -0.4 5-6 #15 Houston 0.6 7-5
;#16 Kansas City -0.8 4-6-1 #16 Indianapolis 0.5 6-6
;#17 San Diego -1.4 4-7 #17 San Diego -1.2 4-8
;#18 Green Bay -1.4 6-5 #18 Green Bay -1.6 7-5
;#19 Miami -2.1 7-4 #19 Tampa Bay -3.2 5-7
;#20 Tampa Bay -2.3 4-7 #20 Seattle -3.3 4-8
;#21 Seattle -3.0 4-7 #21 Miami -4.2 7-5
;#22 New England -5.8 4-7 #22 New England -5.3 4-8
;#23 Phoenix -6.5 5-6 #23 Pittsburgh -5.4 6-6
;#24 Pittsburgh -6.6 5-6 #24 Phoenix -6.1 5-7
;#25 Detroit -7.8 2-9 #25 Detroit -7.1 3-9
;#26 Atlanta -8.3 3-8 #26 N.Y.Jets -7.4 3-9
;#27 N.Y.Jets -8.8 2-9 #27 Atlanta -9.7 3-9
;#28 Dallas -12.3 1-10 #28 Dallas -12.5 1-11
How in the world can Seattle be ranked higher than Miami, Pittsburgh or Phoenix.
Obviously the Neural Net hasn't been watching the same Seahawks I have had the
unpleasant experience of seeing lately.
The Hawks are truly awful.
I expect that the Jets and the Lions would beat them easily, and Atlanta and
Dallas would probably beat them too.
Miami loses to Pittsburgh in a monsoon and Seattle gets blown out by Denver. You
need to explain to the neural net that the Seattle-Denver score was 38-0 at the
half and Denver played their second stringers in the second half.
--
Larry Baum
Advanced Technology Center
Boeing Computer Services uucp: uw-beaver!bcsaic!lbaum
(206) 865-3232 internet: lbaum@atc.boeing.com mathis@boulder.Colorado.EDU (Don Mathis) (12/02/89)
In article <17522@bcsaic.UUCP> lbaum@bcsaic.UUCP (Larry Baum) writes: >;#19 Miami -2.1 7-4 #19 Tampa Bay -3.2 5-7 >;#20 Tampa Bay -2.3 4-7 #20 Seattle -3.3 4-8 >;#21 Seattle -3.0 4-7 #21 Miami -4.2 7-5 >;#22 New England -5.8 4-7 #22 New England -5.3 4-8 >;#23 Phoenix -6.5 5-6 #23 Pittsburgh -5.4 6-6 >;#24 Pittsburgh -6.6 5-6 #24 Phoenix -6.1 5-7 >;#25 Detroit -7.8 2-9 #25 Detroit -7.1 3-9 >;#26 Atlanta -8.3 3-8 #26 N.Y.Jets -7.4 3-9 >;#27 N.Y.Jets -8.8 2-9 #27 Atlanta -9.7 3-9 >;#28 Dallas -12.3 1-10 #28 Dallas -12.5 1-1 >How in the world can Seattle be ranked higher than Miami, Pittsburgh or Phoenix . >Obviously the Neural Net hasn't been watching the same Seahawks I have had the >unpleasant experience of seeing lately. The really amazing thing to me is that even after getting destroyer by Denver , Seattle moved UP from #21 to #20. This is no error, though. As you can see, Seattles q-value did decrease. It's just that Miami did so bad that they dropped from #19 to #21. Miami lost to the Jets... >The Hawks are truly awful. I know - isn't it great? >I expect that the Jets and the Lions would beat them easily, and Atlanta and >Dallas would probably beat them too. Could be. Unfortunately, the nn isn't especially sensitive to RECENT performance, so it's still taking early games into account equally. Remember, Seattle only lost to Denver by 3 in Seattle. >Miami loses to Pittsburgh in a monsoon and Seattle gets blown out by Denver. Y ou >need to explain to the neural net that the Seattle-Denver score was 38-0 at the >half and Denver played their second stringers in the second half. I wish I knew how. Yet another bit of data the nn blatantly ignores! - Don
waya@ll2vax.essex.ac.uk (Way A) (12/05/89)
In article <17522@bcsaic.UUCP> lbaum@bcsaic.UUCP (Larry Baum) writes: >In article <14281@boulder.Colorado.EDU; mathis@boulder.Colorado.EDU (Don Mathis) writes: >;RESULTS OF THE FOOTBALL NEURAL NET: WEEK 12 >;Rank Team Value Record Rank Team Value Record >;#6 L.A.Rams 4.8 7-4 #7 L.A.Rams 4.5 8-4 >;#13 New Orleans 2.0 6-5 #14 New Orleans 2.0 6-6 >;#17 San Diego -1.4 4-7 #17 San Diego -1.2 4-8 >;#18 Green Bay -1.4 6-5 #18 Green Bay -1.6 7-5 >;#20 Tampa Bay -2.3 4-7 #19 Tampa Bay -3.2 5-7 I agree with Larry. There are things you need to explain about the neural net. How come the Rams, Geeen Bay and the Bucs win, yet their value goes down, whilst the Saints lose and their value stays the same, and _even_worse_, the Chargers lose and their value increases. I may be stupid (I'm a skins fan :-), but I don't get it. Explain please. Andy.