mathis@boulder.Colorado.EDU (Don Mathis) (12/13/89)
RESULTS OF THE FOOTBALL NEURAL NET: WEEK 14 ***************************************************************************** * The football neural net ranks football teams based on the following system: * * Goals: * 1. If teams A and B play head-to-head, then the winner should be * ranked higher. * 2. If teams A and B don't play head-to-head, but both play team C, * then whoever beats team C by more points should be ranked higher. * * System: * 1. Assign to each team a numerical "quality value". * 2. IF TEAMS A AND B PLAY HEAD-TO HEAD, THEN THE WINNER'S QUALITY VALUE * SHOULD EXCEED THE LOSER'S BY AN AMOUNT EQUAL TO THE POINT DIFFERENCE * IN THE GAME. * 3. Find a quality value for each team that satisfies the above * requirement as closely as possible. * * Notes: * 1. This system achieves the two goals as well as mathematically possible. * 2. By "as well as mathematically possible", I mean that the system finds * a least-squares solution to the linear system defined by the equation * described in System.2. * ****************************************************************************** |------------------| |------------------| | Week 13 Rankings | | Week 14 Rankings | |------------------| |------------------| Quality W/L Quality W/L Rank Team Value Record Rank Team Value Record ---- ---- -------- ------ ---- ---- ------ ------ #1 Denver 9.8 10-3 #1 Denver 9.1 10-4 #2 San Francisco 8.9 11-2 #2 San Francisco 8.5 12-2 #3 Cincinnati 6.2 7-6 #3 N.Y.Giants 5.4 10-4 #4 Philadelphia 5.5 9-4 #4 Philadelphia 5.4 10-4 #5 Cleveland 5.4 7-5-1 #5 Cincinnati 5.2 7-7 #6 L.A.Raiders 4.6 7-6 #6 Cleveland 4.6 7-6-1 #7 N.Y.Giants 4.1 9-4 #7 Minnesota 4.1 9-5 #8 Buffalo 3.9 8-5 #8 L.A.Raiders 3.9 8-6 #9 L.A.Rams 3.2 9-4 #9 Washington 3.4 8-6 #10 Minnesota 3.2 8-5 #10 L.A.Rams 3.3 9-5 #11 Chicago 3.1 6-7 #11 Kansas City 3.3 7-6-1 #12 Washington 3.1 7-6 #12 Buffalo 3.2 8-6 #13 Kansas City 2.3 6-6-1 #13 Chicago 1.9 6-8 #14 New Orleans 0.8 6-7 #14 New Orleans 0.9 7-7 #15 Houston 0.7 8-5 #15 Houston 0.6 9-5 #16 Indianapolis -0.5 6-7 #16 Indianapolis -0.3 7-7 #17 Green Bay -1.5 8-5 #17 San Diego -1.5 4-10 #18 San Diego -1.8 4-9 #18 Seattle -1.8 6-8 #19 Seattle -2.9 5-8 #19 Green Bay -2.2 8-6 #20 Tampa Bay -3.1 5-8 #20 Miami -3.1 8-6 #21 Miami -4.1 7-6 #21 Tampa Bay -3.1 5-9 #22 New England -4.6 5-8 #22 Detroit -4.5 5-9 #23 Pittsburgh -5.4 6-7 #23 Pittsburgh -4.7 7-7 #24 Detroit -5.7 4-9 #24 Phoenix -5.6 5-9 #25 Phoenix -6.7 5-8 #25 New England -6.2 5-9 #26 N.Y.Jets -7.0 4-9 #26 N.Y.Jets -8.0 4-10 #27 Atlanta -9.8 3-10 #27 Atlanta -10.8 3-11 #28 Dallas -11.7 1-12 #28 Dallas -10.9 1-13 HOW THE NET DID THIS WEEK: _______________________________________________________________________________ | Vegas | Net's | Net's| Game |ATS| Net's | Vegas | Pure | Vegas| Game | Spread | Spread | Bet | Score |W/L| Error | Error | W/L | W/L | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Buf/NO | Buf 5.5 | Buf 3.1 | NO | NO 3 | W | 6.1 | 8.5 | L | L | Cin/Sea | Cin 10 | Cin 9.1 | Sea | Sea 7 | W | 16.1 | 17.0 | L | L | Cle/Ind | Cle 1 | Cle 5.9 | Cle | Ind 6 | L | 11.9 | 7.0 | L | L | Den/Gia | Den 3 | Den 5.6 | Den | Gia 7 | L | 12.6 | 10.0 | L | L | Hou/TB | Hou 8 | Hou 3.8 | TB | Hou 3 | W | 0.8 | 5.0 | W | W | KC/GB | GB 3 | KC 3.8 | KC | KC 18 | W | 14.2 | 21.0 | W | L | Rai/Pho | Rai 9 | Rai 11.3 | Rai | Rai 2 | L | 13.3 | 11.0 | W | W | Mia/NE | Mia 6 | Mia 0.6 | NE | Mia21 | L | 20.4 | 15.0 | W | W | Jet/Pit | Jet 1.5 | Pit 1.6 | Pit | Pit13 | W | 11.4 | 14.5 | W | L | SD/Was | Was 9 | Was 4.9 | SD | Was 5 | W | 0.1 | 4.0 | W | W | Atl/Min | Min 12 | Min 12.9 | Min | Min26 | W | 13.1 | 14.0 | W | W | Chi/Det | Chi 6.5 | Chi 8.8 | Chi | Det10 | L | 18.8 | 16.5 | L | L | Dal/Phi | Phi 12 | Phi 17.2 | Phi | Phi10 | L | 7.2 | 2.0 | W | W | Ram/SF | SF 1 | SF 5.7 | SF | SF 3 | L | 2.7 | 2.0 | W | W | W/L against the spread: 7-7 Pure W/L for the net: 9-5 Pure W/L for Vegas: 7-7 Net's avg error: 10.6 points per game Vegas avg error: 10.5 points per game PREDICTIONS FOR WEEK 15: Buffalo vs. San Francisco => San Francisco by 5.3 Cincinnati vs. Houston => Cincinnati by 4.5 Cleveland vs. Minnesota => Cleveland by 0.5 Denver vs. Phoenix => Denver by 14.8 Indianapolis vs. Miami => Indianapolis by 2.8 Kansas City vs. San Diego => Kansas City by 4.8 L.A.Raiders vs. Seattle => L.A.Raiders by 5.8 New England vs. Pittsburgh => Pittsburgh by 1.5 N.Y.Jets vs. L.A.Rams => L.A.Rams by 11.4 Atlanta vs. Washington => Washington by 14.2 Chicago vs. Green Bay => Chicago by 4.1 Dallas vs. N.Y.Giants => N.Y.Giants by 16.3 Detroit vs. Tampa Bay => Tampa Bay by 1.4 New Orleans vs. Philadelphia => Philadelphia by 4.4 Highest quality game: Buffalo vs. San Francisco. Total quality = 11.7 Lowest quality game: New England vs. Pittsburgh. Total quality = -11.0 Most evenly matched game: Cleveland vs. Minnesota. Difference in quality = 0.5 Most lopsided game: Dallas vs. N.Y.Giants. Difference in quality = 16.3