mathis@boulder.Colorado.EDU (Don Mathis) (12/19/89)
RESULTS OF THE FOOTBALL NEURAL NET: WEEK 15 ***************************************************************************** * The football neural net ranks football teams based on the following system: * * Goals: * 1. If teams A and B play head-to-head, then the winner should be * ranked higher. * 2. If teams A and B don't play head-to-head, but both play team C, * then whoever beats team C by more points should be ranked higher. * * System: * 1. Assign to each team a numerical "quality value". * 2. IF TEAMS A AND B PLAY HEAD-TO HEAD, THEN THE WINNER'S QUALITY VALUE * SHOULD EXCEED THE LOSER'S BY AN AMOUNT EQUAL TO THE POINT DIFFERENCE * IN THE GAME. * 3. Find a quality value for each team that satisfies the above * requirement as closely as possible. * * Notes: * 1. This system achieves the two goals as well as mathematically possible. * 2. By "as well as mathematically possible", I mean that the system finds * a least-squares solution to the linear system defined by the equation * described in System.2. * ****************************************************************************** |------------------| |------------------| | Week 14 Rankings | | Week 15 Rankings | |------------------| |------------------| Quality W/L Quality W/L Rank Team Value Record Rank Team Value Record ---- ---- -------- ------ ---- ---- ------ ------ #1 Denver 9.1 10-4 #1 Denver 10.5 11-4 #2 San Francisco 8.5 12-2 #2 San Francisco 9.1 13-2 #3 N.Y.Giants 5.4 10-4 #3 Cincinnati 8.2 8-7 #4 Philadelphia 5.4 10-4 #4 Cleveland 5.3 8-6-1 #5 Cincinnati 5.2 7-7 #5 N.Y.Giants 5.1 11-4 #6 Cleveland 4.6 7-6-1 #6 L.A.Rams 4.4 10-5 #7 Minnesota 4.1 9-5 #7 Philadelphia 4.2 10-5 #8 L.A.Raiders 3.9 8-6 #8 Minnesota 3.7 9-6 #9 Washington 3.4 8-6 #9 Buffalo 3.1 8-7 #10 L.A.Rams 3.3 9-5 #10 L.A.Raiders 3.0 8-7 #11 Kansas City 3.3 7-6-1 #11 Kansas City 2.8 7-7-1 #12 Buffalo 3.2 8-6 #12 Washington 2.1 9-6 #13 Chicago 1.9 6-8 #13 New Orleans 2.0 8-7 #14 New Orleans 0.9 7-7 #14 Indianapolis 1.5 8-7 #15 Houston 0.6 9-5 #15 Chicago 0.9 6-9 #16 Indianapolis -0.3 7-7 #16 Seattle -1.0 7-8 #17 San Diego -1.5 4-10 #17 San Diego -1.1 5-10 #18 Seattle -1.8 6-8 #18 Green Bay -1.2 9-6 #19 Green Bay -2.2 8-6 #19 Houston -2.4 9-6 #20 Miami -3.1 8-6 #20 Detroit -2.9 6-9 #21 Tampa Bay -3.1 5-9 #21 Pittsburgh -3.7 8-7 #22 Detroit -4.5 5-9 #22 Miami -4.7 8-7 #23 Pittsburgh -4.7 7-7 #23 Tampa Bay -4.8 5-10 #24 Phoenix -5.6 5-9 #24 Phoenix -7.2 5-10 #25 New England -6.2 5-9 #25 New England -7.4 5-10 #26 N.Y.Jets -8.0 4-10 #26 N.Y.Jets -8.7 4-11 #27 Atlanta -10.8 3-11 #27 Atlanta -9.7 3-12 #28 Dallas -10.9 1-13 #28 Dallas -11.2 1-14 GO BRONCOS! Or as Dan Reeves would say: "Gew Broncews!" HOW THE NET DID THIS WEEK: ATS = "Against the spread" PTW = "Picked the winner?" _______________________________________________________________________________ | Vegas | Net's | Net's| Game |ATS| Net's | Vegas | Net | Vegas| Game | Spread | Spread | Bet | Score |W/L| Error | Error | PTW? | PTW? | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Buf/SF | SF 7 | SF 5.3 | Buf | SF 11 | L | 5.7 | 4.0 | W | W | Cin/Hou | Cin 3.5 | Cin 4.5 | Cin | Cin54 | W | 49.5 | 50.5 | W | W | Cle/Min | Min 1 | Cle 0.5 | Cle | Cle 6 | W | 5.5 | 7.0 | W | L | Den/Pho | Den 7 | Den 14.8 | Den | Den37 | W | 22.1 | 30.0 | W | W | Ind/Mia | Even | Ind 2.8 | Ind | Ind29 | W | 26.2 | 29.0 | W | - | KC/SD | KC 8 | KC 4.8 | SD | SD 7 | W | 11.8 | 15.0 | L | L | Rai/Sea | Even | Rai 5.8 | Rai | Sea 6 | L | 11.8 | 6.0 | L | - | NE/Pit | Pit 3 | Pit 1.5 | NE | Pit18 | L | 16.5 | 15.0 | W | W | Jet/Ram | Ram 11 | Ram 11.4 | Ram | Ram24 | W | 12.6 | 13.0 | W | W | Atl/Was | Was 6.5 | Was 14.2 | Was | Was 1 | L | 13.2 | 5.5 | W | W | Chi/GB | Chi 1.5 | Chi 4.1 | Chi | GB 12 | L | 16.1 | 10.5 | L | L | Dal/Gia | Gia 12 | Gia 16.3 | Gia | Gia15 | W | 1.3 | 3.0 | W | W | Det/TB | Det 3 | TB 1.4 | TB | Det26 | L | 27.4 | 23.0 | L | W | NO/Phi | Phi 1 | Phi 4.4 | Phi | NO 10 | L | 14.4 | 11.0 | L | L | W/L against the spread: 7-7 Pure W/L for the net: 9-5 Pure W/L for Vegas: 8-4-2 Net's avg error: 16.7 points per game Vegas avg error: 15.9 points per game PREDICTIONS FOR WEEK 16: Buffalo vs. N.Y.Jets => Buffalo by 11.7 Cincinnati vs. Minnesota => Cincinnati by 4.5 Cleveland vs. Houston => Cleveland by 7.7 Denver vs. San Diego => Denver by 11.6 Indianapolis vs. New Orleans => New Orleans by 0.5 Kansas City vs. Miami => Kansas City by 7.5 L.A.Raiders vs. N.Y.Giants => N.Y.Giants by 2.1 New England vs. L.A.Rams => L.A.Rams by 11.8 Pittsburgh vs. Tampa Bay => Pittsburgh by 1.1 Seattle vs. Washington => Washington by 3.1 Atlanta vs. Detroit => Detroit by 6.8 Chicago vs. San Francisco => San Francisco by 8.2 Dallas vs. Green Bay => Green Bay by 10.0 Philadelphia vs. Phoenix => Philadelphia by 11.4 Highest quality game: Cincinnati vs. Minnesota. Total quality = 11.8 Lowest quality game: Atlanta vs. Detroit. Total quality = -12.6 Most evenly matched game: Indianapolis vs. New Orleans. Difference in quality = 0.5 Most lopsided game: New England vs. L.A.Rams. Difference in quality = 11.8