SJC9582@OBERLIN (What America Needs is A Latex Fetish) (06/29/89)
AIDS FORECAST IS FAULTED Reprinted W/Out permission, New York Times, June 26, 1989 Washington, June 25 - The number of people who will develop AIDS has been significantly underestimated and could reach 480,000 by the end of 1991, according to a study of various Government and private projections conducted by the General Accounting Office. The G.A.O., an investigative arm of Congress, puts the "realistic range" of cumulative AIDS cases at 300,000 to 480,000 after another two and a half years, well above the 185,000 to 320,000 cases predicted by the Center for Disease Control, an arm of the Uninted States Public Health Service. The report was requested by members of congress, including Representative Henry A. Waxman, Democrat of California, chairman of a subcommittee concearned with the question. "This is a challenge to our health care system that is more severe than we expected," Mr. Waxman said. In all, G.A.O. analyzed 13 forecasts, including those of the federal disease control centers, and concluded that they all underestimated the extent of the epidemic, mainly because of problems in the underlying data. Those forecasts offered as most likely, or best, estimates ranging from 120,000 to 400,000 cases by the end of 1991. The congressional agency said the forecasters had relied on AIDS surveillance figures, which suffered from 13 different problems of definition and methods that could bias predictions. Thus, the G.A.O. said, perhaps "Only about two-thirds of all cases of AIDS and other fatal HIV related illnesses were captured in the data underlying existing national forecasts." Another finding was an increasing number of cases involving heterosexual contact with the drug-using partners. "G.A.O. believes that the true proportion of heterosexual cases may be somewhat higher than the often quoted 4 percent," the report said. John Chapman 41 N. Pleasant st. Oberlin, Ohio, 44074 John Chapman --------------------------------------------------------------------------- <sjc9582@oberlin (bitnet) <?bellcore?!oberlin!ocvaxa!sjc9582 (uucp) <ocvaxa::sjc9582 (ccnet) <sjc9582%oberlin@uk.ac.rl (janet to bitnet) <sjc9582%oberlin.bitnet@cunyvm.cuny.edu (csnet or arpa)