cdh@bbn-vax.arpa (Carl D. Howe) (01/03/86)
Happy New Year, netlanders! In an industry that changes as quickly as the microcomputer world, it's fun to speculate on what will happen in a year. The past year brought the first low-cost laser printers (HP and Apple) and local area networks from Apple and IBM. It also saw the advent of production 32-bit microcomputer chips and cheap 256K RAMs. Given such radical changes in technology, what can we expect from 1986? DISCLAIMER: Despite mention of specific companies and products below, the following are purely my own speculations and are not based upon any secret inside sources. The majority is simply extrapolation of what I read in the trade journals and the newspapers. I also reserve the right to be completely wrong about everything I predict! WORKSTATIONS: The real fight will be in the workstation arena. IBM will introduce a RISC-based workstation in 1986 but will have initial difficulty finding a niche for it. However, because of the three letters on the front, companies will eventually write software for it and it will be successful. However, don't expect IBM to dominate the market in 1986. Apple will also extend the Macintosh line into the workstation arena with a large (17-inch) display verion. Calling it a Mac may be a bit of a misnomer as it will have a much larger footprint (more like an IBM PC) than the current Mac. Expect the new workstation Macintosh to be more of an open architecture with slots for expansion and the capability for lots of main memory and hard disks. Don't expect a change in processor though; the most likely candidate is a 68010, although the 68020 could make it into the machine if it is introduced in the 3rd or 4th quarters. The new machine will be expensive by Apple standards; a usable machine will be in the $4K-8K range depending upon options. Don't expect this machine to be announced at the annual meeting; Apple will no longer make announcements about forthcoming products until they are ready for market, and this one probably won't make it until 3rd quarter. The AI workstation market will continue to be dominated by Symbolics and their 3600-series machines, despite numerous attempts of other companies to penetrate the market. I expect a new machine from them this year also, possibly incorporating multiple-processors. Despite the entries by IBM and Apple, I expect that the major sales in workstations will go to DEC (MicroVax IIs), Sun Microsystems (Sun 3s), and Symbolics (3600 series) in 1986. All these companies have established customer bases and proven high-performance machines to sell with software that will run on them. Even IBM's entry into the market shouldn't seriously affect them until 1987. PERSONAL COMPUTERS: Apple will introduce an evolutionary form of the Macintosh early in the year, probably at the annual meeting. While the new machine will have higher-density floppies and the capability for more memory and a DMA hard-disk port, no real surprises should be expected. As mentioned earlier, the Apple workstation won't be available until much later in the year and will be significantly more expensive. Expect about 33% price erosion in the current Macintosh during 1986. IBM will not change its product line significantly in 1986 except to offer enhancements to the PC and AT. More memory and bigger disks will be the major additions. Support for the IBM local network will slowly grow. Look for IBM to introduce a laser print server for that network. The PC will continue to be sold, but expect the AT to take over more and more of its traditional market, particularly due to price reductions. A high-performance AT (i.e. significantly faster clocked 80286 with big memory and a 80-100 MB hard disk) is a possibility for 1986, but don't expect the 80386 to make it into an IBM product until late in the year, if that. What about Commodore Amiga and Atari ST? To everyone's surprise, both will survive and command market share. Expect Commodore and Atari to swap markets from the places where they did well in 1984; Atari will continue to market its ST series well in Europe (like Commodore did with the PET), while Commodore will sell its high-performance, NTSC compatible graphics primarily in North America. Don't expect any significant price erosion in either of these products; both have extremely tight margins already. However, as a promotion, you may see bundled software with either or both to encourage new buyers. PRINTERS What could be interesting in the printer market, you say? Expect high-quality laser/LCD printers to completely dominate the business printer market in 1986. The $2000 price point will be broken in early 1986, and they may sell for as little as $1000 by the end of the year. This low price in addition to their high-quality output and almost noiseless operation will make them almost irresistable to businesses. There may be a technology battle between lasers and LCDs, with the lasers providing higher print quality and the LCDs providing lower price; however, I predict the laser will close the price gap due to volume laser production as the result of very high audio compact disk player sales! MINIFRAMES/MAINFRAMES Expect every major computer manufacturer including IBM and DEC to come out with some sort of parallel processor architecture in 1986. Operating system support for parallelism will be shakey at first, but will improve as the products make their way into the field. However, don't expect these products to be aimed at the mainstream computer buyer; their markets will primarily be the CAD/CAM arena (simulation and layout), numerical analysis customers, and artificial intelligence applications. Expect the companies the provide bundled applications software for exploiting the parallel architectures to be the ones that succeed. ---- Well, those are my ideas. What are yours? Carl