[net.micro] 1986 predictions

bryan@ihnet.UUCP (b. k. delaney) (12/27/85)

What will happen next year ?

Here are my 1986 predictions for the Amiga, ST, MAC.

The Atari 520ST will come standard with 1 megabyte of ram
by June.  Also sales will be better than most people think
(200,000 units per month).  Atari will also be in the OEM
business (low cost UNIX based CAD-CAM systems), probably
in partnership with a large company.  Experts will be
amazed that there really is a HOME computer market that
nobody has been able to find (until the ST). 

Amiga sales will be slower than expected but good enough
to keep Commodore going (15,000 units per month).  The
Amiga will also come standard with 1 megabyte of ram.
Sales will be very slow in first quarter 86, but will pick up
when the Amiga gets a 30% price cut.

There will be plenty of software for the Amiga and the 
Atari ST, but as usually is the case, (look at the old
Atari 800 systems) it will NOT take advantage of Amiga's
Graphics hardware.  Large software companies like to write
portable code.  Smaller companies will write the Good Stuff.

Apple may be in VERY DEEP trouble, but with Fat MACs for 
$1500.00 and the new APPLE IIxt 16 bit computer that runs
in two modes ,8 and 8/16 bit, will pull  out of trouble.  
The new apple will use the new 8/16 bit 6502 micro.  
It looks like the first Personal Computer will never
die, (who says you can't teach an old dog new tricks).


				ihnet!bryan

ejb@think.ARPA (Erik Bailey) (12/28/85)

In article <341@ihnet.UUCP> bryan@ihnet.UUCP (b. k. delaney) writes:
>Here are my 1986 predictions for the Amiga, ST, MAC.
>
> . . . . . . . .
>
>Apple may be in VERY DEEP trouble, but with Fat MACs for 
>$1500.00 and the new APPLE IIxt 16 bit computer that runs
>in two modes ,8 and 8/16 bit, will pull  out of trouble.  
>The new apple will use the new 8/16 bit 6502 micro.  
>It looks like the first Personal Computer will never
>die, (who says you can't teach an old dog new tricks).

The //x (which is the name [I think], not the IIxt) may not
become an entity. There is a company selling cards for the
//e and //c that essentially turn them into //x's, with
65816 and 1meg RAM. And it goes for $400! So what I hear
from a friend of a friend who has indirect connections
with Apple is that no //x will be made, at least this year.


-- 
Erik Bailey
_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-

Erik Bailey        -- 7 Oak Knoll                 (USENET courtesy of
ihnp4!godot!ejb       Arlington, MA  02174        Thinking Machines Corp.
ejb@think.com.arpa    (617) 643-0732              Cambridge, MA)

"He's dead, Jim."   -- Leonard H. McCoy

emjej@uokvax.UUCP (12/29/85)

/* Written 10:12 pm  Dec 26, 1985 by bryan@ihnet.UUCP in net.micro */
Here are my 1986 predictions for the ...ST....

Atari will also be in the OEM business (low cost UNIX based CAD-CAM
systems), probably in partnership with a large company.

				ihnet!bryan
/* End of text from net.micro */

Surely you jest...no current version of Unix could run on an ST (or Amiga)
because it lacks memory-mapping hardware.  In 1Q84 (or early 2Q), according
to info from the CompuServe OS-9 SIG, I'll be able to do what I've wanted to
do for some time, namely buy a 520ST or Amiga, flush the DOS that comes with
it down the toilet, and run OS-9 instead.

						James Jones

chuq@sun.uucp (Chuq Von Rospach) (01/02/86)

>> Here are my 1986 predictions for the ...ST....
>> Atari will also be in the OEM business (low cost UNIX based CAD-CAM
>> systems), probably in partnership with a large company.

> Surely you jest...no current version of Unix could run on an ST (or Amiga)
> because it lacks memory-mapping hardware.  In 1Q84 (or early 2Q), according
> to info from the CompuServe OS-9 SIG, I'll be able to do what I've wanted to
> do for some time, namely buy a 520ST or Amiga, flush the DOS that comes with
> it down the toilet, and run OS-9 instead.

There was an article in the San Jose Mercury News this weekend on the ST.
Based on what it said (and it quoted named, real people from Atari, not
anonymous sources) the current ST will be repackaged with a modulator so it
can run on a television and marketed through a unnamed and unnegotiated mass
market retailer for about $400-$500. A new ST with a Meg will be marketed
through computer stores with a monochrome monitor (I think the price was about
a grand, but I forget exactly).

This assumes they can find a mass marketer (probably ToysRUs or Kmart) willing
to take them on after the debacles with the Adam, the Comodore machine, and
the Sinclair/Timex. It also assumes the current dealer network doesn't commit
mutiny because of the shift to mass market.

I doubt that you can get decent resolution off a TV. I also find their shift
towards a monochrome monitor amusing, since it seems to prove that the Mac
claim that you can't get a decent color display with good enough
price/performance and resolution has a basis in fact (not that I ever doubted
it, color monitors give me headaches...)

Personally, I think they're blowing it marketing-wise, since they are just
asking to get burnt by their dealers...

-- 
:From catacombs of Castle Tarot:        Chuq Von Rospach 
sun!chuq@decwrl.DEC.COM                 {hplabs,ihnp4,nsc,pyramid}!sun!chuq

It's not looking, it's heat seeking.

tim@ism780c.UUCP (Tim Smith) (01/04/86)

In article <341@ihnet.UUCP> bryan@ihnet.UUCP (b. k. delaney) writes:
>
>What will happen next year ?
>
>Here are my 1986 predictions for the Amiga, ST, MAC.
>
This should either be "AMIGA, ST, MAC" or "Amiga, ST, Mac".

>Apple may be in VERY DEEP trouble, but with Fat MACs for 
>$1500.00 and the new APPLE IIxt 16 bit computer that runs
>in two modes ,8 and 8/16 bit, will pull  out of trouble.  
>The new apple will use the new 8/16 bit 6502 micro.  
>It looks like the first Personal Computer will never
>die, (who says you can't teach an old dog new tricks).
>

Why do you think Apple is in "VERY DEEP" trouble?  $50 million in
profit / quarter and $300 million in the bank sure doesn't sound
like deep trouble to me!
-- 
Tim Smith       sdcrdcf!ism780c!tim || ima!ism780!tim || ihnp4!cithep!tim