[comp.software-eng] Resource Prediction by Analogy

jcardow@afit.af.mil (James E. Cardow) (03/23/91)

I need some help from the folks on the net (especially those 
familiar with government contracting) in looking at a problem.  
We want to come up with an analogy based method of predicting 
resource needs for a project.  The situation is something like:

	If I have an existing, embedded subsystem that performs 
	a set of clearly understood functions and I'm going to 
	contract for a similar system (same functions, new 
	technology etc.)  Can I base the estimate  on the cost 
	of the existing system with some delta for the innovation?


We are assessing many of the innovations and their impacts.  
We would welcome comments on the approach, but we need your 
thoughts a specific part of the problem.  The specific problem 
is:  can I define a delta for changes in the mil-std 
requirements?  What we want to do is look at a system 
that was developed in accordance with (IAW) Mil-Std-483 
and Mil-S-S27779A and estimate the difference in cost 
for a new (similar) system developed IAW DOD-STD-2167A, 
DOD-STD-2168 (Quality), DOD-STD-1803 (Software Development 
Integrity Program), DOD-STD-1785 (Security) and DOD-STD-882B 
(Safety).  We are assuming that each standard is properly 
used and tailored (okay, that is a big assumption!).  How much 
above the original cost can we expect for the new set of standards?


Now, we know there are a great many other issues to this 
approach and we are working on those.  For now, we would 
like to hear opinions, or even better, experience of the 
cost increase due to the standards.  We also recognize 
that some of the standards are cost loaded up front for 
lifecycle savings and we will be taking that into account later.


Thanks for your input.


Jim Cardow
Instructor of Software Engineering
Air Force Institute of Technology 
Wright Patterson AFB, OH