frisk@rhi.hi.is (Fridrik Skulason) (07/20/90)
I have been reading a book, "The Computerized Society", published in 1970,
where the authors, James Martin and Adrian R. D. Norman look 15-20 years
ahead, trying to predict changes in the computing world.
This is very interesting reading, not only because of the predictions that
came true, but also because of those that did not.
What did they predict ?
"...mass production of the machines with a very sharp drop in cost..."
"...exponential increase in execution speed and storage size..."
"...many areas off standardization that will have a snowball effect as
programs used in installation spread to others..."
"...[computers] becoming linked to the telephone network so that
computers will be able to communicate with other computers..."
"...an industry is growing up to provide programs for computer users,
and will probably become one of the major industries of the 1970s..."
"...most office buildings will include a Picturephone room, and
executives will have such machines on their desks..."
"...when Picturephone sets are installed, we can expect to have links
which can carry 500.000 bits per second or more..."
"...people everywhere must be able to dial up a computing facility
appropriate to their needs..."
"...dedicated amateurs will probably begin to write and sell programs
to the "utilities"..."
But what did they not predict is even more interesting. Among the wrong
prediction, one of the most interesting has to to with "home terminals".
They predicted a huge increase of terminals located in homes and connected
to mainframes, via inexpensive dial-up lines. The idea that an individual
might have a computer in his home - a computer as powerful as the
mainframes of 1970 - simply did not occur to them. But what would the
"dedicated amateur" with his "home terminal" then do with it ?
"...the interest and excitement that is likely to be stirred up by
being able to dial up and work with an ever-growing number of computers
is likely to be far greater, and far more time-absorbing than the
attraction of hobbies such as ham radio and videotape. It is probable as
the available computers increase, as education about computers spreads,
and as leisure times increases as a result of automation, the computer
amateurs will become a growing body. Magazines will be produced for
them. Industry will encourage them and enthusiastically sell to them."
"... [programming] is a creative, enjoyable work; work that wives and
children can do; work that disabled and in some cases blind people are
doing".
"Whereas a man might use a home computer terminal for scanning newspapers
or for stock market studies, his wife might use it for shopping..."
And so on - some predictions were accurate, other failed miserably. What
about our predictions today ? What will the next 15 years be like - does
anyone want to make a similar set of prediction for the year 2005 ?
Fridrik Skulasoneugene@wilbur.nas.nasa.gov (Eugene N. Miya) (07/24/90)
> They predicted a huge increase of terminals located in homes and connected > to mainframes, via inexpensive dial-up lines. The idea that an individual > might have a computer in his home - a computer as powerful as the > mainframes of 1970 - simply did not occur to them. But what would the > "dedicated amateur" with his "home terminal" then do with it? Perhaps not in the US, but consider France's Minitel system. This can be explained by James Martin's background in strictly IBM mainframe data processing. He lacked some foresight in where LSI was going and had a data processing shop outlook on software. There are many other predictions, such as Alan Kay's, much more useful. > What about our predictions today ? What will the next 15 years be > like - does anyone want to make a similar set of prediction for > the year 2005? The speed of machines will level off. This will cause more problems than people would believe. The average man will still be happy editing text, but we won't have "AI." Physics will catch up as we reach certain fundamental limitations of electronics. Unfortunately, software won't improve immensively in this time for several reasons. "We will still call it Fortran|Unix|C|Pascal, etc." Communications will be as important as the ability to store or crunch numbers or symbols. There will be problems with bandwidth. What is needed in a next stage of integration. A level of packaging which must combine software and hardware into a higher-level module. Modules will be important because we won't be able to get the speed or memory we need from serial CPUs. The modules must hide the communications details. It won't be perfect, but it will be "standard." These modules must be useable by nearly everyone, not just EEs or S/WE. The point will be the assembly of these modules (Lego? Erector sets?) into larger useage compositions: smart machines, smart buldings, etc. Clearly commodity. But again, how? The module must be rugged, but it must also be inexpensive. What must the software do? Limited programming (but big in contrast to what's done on micros today). So long as electronics stays "standard" only at the chip level, it won't progress. There will be some social problems in the physical sciences. Too much computing and not enough contact or understanding of the physical world. These problems will require new solutions in the areas of optics and "superconductivity." We might be building computers whose cost will be just an order magnitude less than the most expensive scientific instruments: particle accelerators, satellites, telescopes, etc. Just to solve one or two single purpose problems. They will be important. For every day life: there will be "micros" every where in the civilized world, but we will laugh and cringe occasionally to find the odd 1982ish PC or VT100 in some critical application which has not been upgraded for fear changing will cause the system to fall apart. More people will be dying of "computer related problems." But not eneough to cause alarm, just a part of "modern life." We will split our society even more into information haves and have-nots. Education and unemployment will continue to plague us. All of this can be elaborated in more detail. e. nobuo miya
kcby@kong.Atlanta.NCR.com (KC Burgess Yakemovic) (07/24/90)
Fridrik Skulason quotes James Martin and Adrian Norman as predicting:
> ... as leisure times increases as a result of automation ...
As I was reading your posting it struck me that this may have been the
_biggest_ miss among the predictions. (Not that Martin and Norman were
alone in this...:-) Recently I've heard/read a number of things that
suggest that the computerization of our workplaces may have simply *added*
to the workload, rather than reduced it.
Therefore I'm curious... are people _still_ predicting that leisure is
just around the corner? If so, what do we now think it is that will make
more time available?
K.C. Burgess Yakemovicpeter@ficc.ferranti.com (Peter da Silva) (07/31/90)
Eugene N. Miya writes: > What is needed in a next stage of integration. A level of packaging > which must combine software and hardware into a higher-level module. You mean when you buy a "word processor" it will be a smart box with ROM equivalent software and a CPU that you plug into a common bus, sort of like plugging a compute server into an ethernet and bringing it up on your Xterminal? Makes sense, and could even be built upon X and ether (which would be wonderful... for all I bemoan the heavy overhead of X this is something that OS/2 can't do). > These modules must be useable by nearly everyone, not just EEs or S/WE. > The point will be the assembly of these modules (Lego? Erector sets?) Component stereo. And there will be different standards: some wired up like your typical audiophile's layout, but with ethernet or FDDI or something (maybe SCSI-derived, even); some where you plug modules into a backplane, and some like Burrough's N-Gen system or the Amiga 1000 where you plug them together like Lego blocks. And there will be adaptors, so compatibility won't depend on hardware, but on protocols. Peter da Silva
ranc@crcge1.cge.fr (Daniel Ranc) (08/09/90)
Hi, out there in the cold! I just read the messages on future forecasting etc. An interesting fact would be nice to add specifically on the conclusions regarding "home terminals". The French Telecom provided FOR FREE (!!!!) EVERY (yes) phone customer a little terminal (called minitel). The minitel has a 1200/75 baud modem allowing to connect to: - the phonebook server - no more phonebooks at home, just dial and find the number of your choice. - hotel, train, airplane reservation systems - AFP news - last but not least, a number of servers called "pink minitel" where persons can dialog anonymously and let freely express their fantasies... In this sense, the home terminal forecast was true in fact. But users do not program with them : they use it as a service. Daniel Ranc
dent@unocss.unomaha.edu (Dave Caplinger) (08/11/90)
Daniel Ranc, posting from France, reports that: > The French Telecom provided FOR FREE (!!!!) EVERY (yes) phone customer > a little terminal (called minitel). The minitel has a 1200/75 baud > modem allowing to connect to: U.S. West is doing the same thing here in Omaha, with the "Minitel 2" which is basically a Minitel with an "American" keyboard. The terminals aren't free though - you can rent them for $8 a month, charged on your normal phone bill. Also, the vast majority of services offered are charged at from $.10 to $.50 a minute to your phone bill as well. Services curently offered include home shopping (w/ delivery) [from only one store in the city, however], Delphi stock quotes, one college offers class schedules online, the city Chamber of Commerce has a service, nationwide yellow pages, severl chat services, several email services, classified ads, a few local TV stations are offering whether forcast information, news, etc, and of course, you can check the airport's flight schedules. :-) There are a lot of other services (many seem to be duplicates) that I haven't mentioned, but you should have the general idea.. :-) Dave Caplinger
paulg@frith.egr.msu.edu (Gregory R Paul) (08/15/90)
> The French Telecom provided FOR FREE (!!!!) EVERY (yes) phone customer > a little terminal (called minitel). The minitel has a 1200/75 baud > modem allowing to connect to: Actually, my understanding is that they are still quite in the middle of providing everyone with said terminals. Last I heard they were somewhere around 50% implemented (my sister just returned last week after spending a year in France). One of the overriding justifications for doing so will be the essential elimination of directory/calling assistances. Also, phone books should essentially cease to exist also (I'm unsure of their exact time table to phase them out). I guess the only thing to remember is to write down those all important phone service repair numbers. Heh, I can just see someone's terminal going down and being unable to look up who to call. (Okay, so maybe it's a bit far fetched, but the concept provided a great deal of amusement.) Greg Paul
yyz@ucscb.ucsc.edu (Schneider) (08/17/90)
Daniel Ranc, posting from France, reports that: > The French Telecom provided FOR FREE (!!!!) EVERY (yes) phone customer > a little terminal (called minitel). The minitel has a 1200/75 baud > modem allowing to connect to: I have a friend who just returned from France the other week. She said that the minitels were great, but they weren't free. My understanding of the situation is that they were given to a whole bunch of people to sort of get the ball rolling, and when the craze caught on, they started selling them -- and I'm told that they're not cheap. Steve C. Schneider
kstock@gouldfr.encore.fr (Kevin STOCK) (08/22/90)
> The French Telecom provided FOR FREE (!!!!) EVERY (yes) phone customer > a little terminal (called minitel). The minitel has a 1200/75 baud > modem allowing to connect to: This is slightly misleading, since, although you can still get hold of the free terminal (Minitel 1) if you try, France Telecom is pushing new ones with all sorts of useful features. When I went to apply for one, they offered me the Minitel 10. I asked what the difference was between it and the Minitel 1. The reply was "20 Francs a month". About the only technical advantage it had was that it can dial the computer from the terminal keyboard instead of from the phone. Wow! Other models cost up to 100 FF per month and allow colour displays, password protection (to stop your children/mother-in-law using it) and a few other things. In the end, I got the free one because a friend was leaving and I got them to transfer his Minitel to me. > - the phonebook server - no more phonebooks at home, just dial > and find the number of your choice. This is free for the first three minutes of each call, after that a small charge is made per minute of use. There's no limit to the number of calls you can make, so you can keep looking at your watch and disconnect after 2'50'' (in fact, one of the booklets they gave me suggests such a scheme). This service actually is excellent - I can check a number faster on the Minitel than I can using my own address book (never mind the phone book). All the other services have to be paid for. As a minimum, the time of the call is chargeable, many services have additional charges as well. > - hotel, train, airplane reservation systems About 1 FF per minute, depending on the service. > - AFP news I don't know what AFP is, so I don't know the price of this. > - last but not least, a number of servers called "pink minitel" > where persons can dialog anonymously and let freely express > their fantasies... *Definitely* not least - these services account for about 80% of the minitel services. About 1.5 FF per minute. > In this sense, the home terminal forecast was true in fact. > But users do not program with them : they use it as a service. True. Other services which come to mind (I don't have a directory here) are banking, catalogue orders, book clubs, customer information services, tourist information, weather. One good thing concering the cost is that you can have it displayed at the top of the screen as you work - the bad thing is that you have to press a key to request it each time you call, it doesn't appear automatically. Kevin Stock