kling@ics.uci.edu (Rob Kling) (04/22/91)
I just saw an enthusiastic posting about Alvin Toffler's books
"Future Shock" and "The Third Wave" on RISKS. I thought that
my comments about Toffler's style of analysis might also interest
readers of comp.society.
Toffler's a
provocative and popular journalist. But I recommend that people
read him VERY critically. Toffler's Third Wave is a
technologically utopian treatise whose assumptions undermine the
kinds of social realism which are essential for our understanding
how computerization really work out ....
I see some value to utopian and anti-utopian analyses. But
technological utopianism is so seductive to technologists, and
dangerous (IMHO), that we should be aware of how its rhetoric
"works."
I've written about the character of technological utopianism,
anti-utopianism, and social realism as genres of analysis which
give selective insight into issues of computerization, but which
also have important systematic limitations, in:
"Reading 'All About' Computerization: Five Common
Genres of Social Analysis" in Directions in Advanced
Computer Systems, 1990 Doug Schuler (Ed.). Norwood,
NJ:Ablex Pub. Co. (in press) and
my new book,
"Computerization and Controversy: Value Conflicts and
Social Choices" (co-edited with Chuck Dunlop).
(Academic Press, 1991).
I'm attaching a commentary Toffler's "The Third Wave" from
"Computerization and Controversy." The following paragraphs are
from the introduction to a section I, which examines
Technological Utopianism and Technological Anti-Utopianism.
====================================================
Alvin Toffler's best seller, The Third Wave, helped stimulate
popular enthusiasm for computerization. Toffler characterized
major social transformations in terms of large shifts in the
organization of society, driven by technological change. The
"Second Wave" was the shift from agricultural societies to
industrial societies. Toffler contrasts industrial ways of
organizing societies to new social trends that he links to
computer and microelectronic technologies. He is masterful
employing succinct breathless prose to suggest major social
changes. He also invented terminology to help characterize some
of these social changes -- terms like "second wave", "third
wave", "electronic cottage", "infosphere", "technosphere",
"prosumer", "intelligent environment", etc. Many of Toffler's
new terms did not become commonly accepted. Even so, they help
frame a seductive description of social change. These lines from
his chapter, "The Intelligent Environment" illustrate his ap-
proach. (Toffler devoted ONLY ONE PARAGRAPH in his chapter to
possible problems of computerization.)
Today, as we construct a new info-sphere for a Third Wave
civilization, we are imparting to the "dead" environment
around us, not life, but intelligence. A key to this
revolutionary advances, of course, the computer (Toffler,
1980:168) . . . .
As miniaturization advanced with lightning rapidity, as
computer capacity soared and prices per function plunged,
small cheap powerful minicomputers began to sprout
everywhere. Every branch factory, laboratory, sales office,
or engineering department claimed its own . . . . The
brainpower of the computer . . . was "distributed." This
dispersion of computer intelligence is now moving ahead at
high speed (Toffler, 1980:169).
The dispersal of computers in the home, not to mention their
interconnection in ramified networks, represents another
advance in the construction of an intelligent environment.
Yet even this is not all. The spread of machine
intelligence reaches another level altogether with the
arrival of microprocessors and microcomputers, those tiny
chips of congealed intelligence that are about to become a
part, it seems, of nearly all the things we make and use . .
. . (Toffler, 1980:170)
What is inescapably clear, however, whatever we choose to
believe, is that we are altering our infosphere fundamental-
ly . . . we are adding a whole new strata of communication
to the social system. The emerging Third Wave infosphere
makes that of the Second Wave era -- dominated by its mass
media, the post office, and the telephone -- seem hopelessly
primitive by contrast. . . . (Toffler, 1980:172)
In all previous societies, the infosphere provided the means
for communication between human beings. The Third Wave
multiplies these means. But it also provides powerful
facilities, for the first time in history, for machine-to-
machine communication, and, even more astonishing, for con-
versation between humans and the intelligent environment
around them. When we stand back and look at the larger
picture, it becomes clear that the revolution in the info-
sphere is at least as dramatic as that of the technosphere -
- in the energy system and the technological base of soci-
ety. The work of constructing a new civilization is racing
forward on many levels at once. (Toffler, 1980:177--178).
[(pages from paperback edition of 1980].
Toffler's breathless enthusiasm can be contagious -- but it also
stymies critical thought. He illustrates changes in the
infosphere with The Source -- a large commercial computer-
communication and messaging system which has thousands of
individual and corporate subscribers. (Today, he could multiply
that example with the emergence of competing commercial systems,
such as CompuServe, Genie, and Prodigy, as well as tens of
thousands of inexpensive computerized bulletin boards that people
have set up in hundreds of cities and towns.) However, there
have been a myriad of other changes in the information
environment in the United States which are not quite as exciting
to people who would like to see a more thoughtful culture.
For example, television has become a a major source of
information about world events for many children and adults.
(Many children and adults report that they watch television for
well over 5 hours a day.) Television news, the most popular
"factual" kind of television programming, slices stories into
salami-thin 30 to 90-second segments. Moreover, there is some
evidence that functional illiteracy is rising in the United
States (Kozol, 1985). The problems of literacy in the United
States are probably not a byproduct of television's popularity.
But it is hard to take Toffler's optimistic account seriously
when a large fraction of the population has trouble understanding
key parts of the instruction manuals for automobiles and for
commonplace home appliances, like televisions, VCRs, and
microwave ovens.
Toffler opens up important questions about the way that informa-
tion technologies alter the ways that people perceive
information, the kinds of information they can get easily, and
how they handle the information they get. Yet his account --
like many popular accounts -- caricatures the answers by using
only illustrations that support his generally buoyant theses.
And he skillfully sidesteps tough questions while creating
excitement (e.g., "The work of constructing a new civilization is
racing forward on many levels at once.").
=====================================
Utopian images permeate the literatures about computerization in
society. Unfortunately, we have found that many utopian writers
distort social situations to fit their preferences ..... We are
not critical of utopian ideals concerned with a good life for
all. The United States was founded on premises that were utopian
premises in the 1700s. The Declaration of Independence asserts
that "all men are created equal" and that they would be
guaranteed the right to "life, liberty, and the pursuit of happi-
ness".
Although utopian visions often serve important roles in
stimulating hope and giving people a positive sense of direction,
they can mislead when their architects exaggerate the likelihood
of easy and desirable social changes. We are particularly
interested in what can be learned, and how we can be misled, by a
particular brand of utopian thought -- technological utopianism.
This line of analysis places the use of some specific technol-
ogy -- computers, nuclear energy, or low-energy low-impact
technologies -- as the central enabling element of a utopian vi-
sion. Sometimes people will casually refer to exotic technologies
-- like pocket computers that understand spoken language -- as
"utopian gadgets." Technological utopianism does not refer to a
set of technologies. It refers to analyses in which the use of
specific technologies plays a key role in shaping a utopian
social vision. In contrast, technological anti-utopianism
examines how certain broad families of technology facilitate a
social order that is relentlessly harsh, destructive, and
miserable.
--------------------------------
>From Introduction to Section I of Computerization and
Controversy: Value Conflicts and Social Choices Charles Dunlop
and Rob Kling (Editors). Academic Press, Boston, 1991.
--------------------
Rob Kling
Department of Information & Computer Science
University of California - Irvine