ISCLIMEL@NUSVM.BITNET (Jenny) (06/30/87)
As I read articles on plausible reasoning in expert systems, I come to the conclusion that experts themselves do not exactly work with numbers as they solve problems. And many of them are not willing to commit themselves into specifying a figure to signify their belief in a rule. The deductive process that occurs in their brain can never be replicated by any known plausible reasoning models. The expert system technology is already a weak one per se, why introduce further complexity and more bottleneck in the acquisition of knowledge, knowing fully well that the numbers are probably inconsistent ? If one obtains two conclusions with numbers indicating some significance, say 75 % and 80 %, can one say that the conclusion with 80% significance is the correct conclusion and ignore the other one ? These numbers do not seem to mean much since they are just beliefs or probabilties. Lim Eng-Lian National University of Singapore -- this opinion is my own and is not influenced by the color of my office