NICK@AI.AI.MIT.EDU (Nick Papadakis) (05/27/88)
Date: Fri, 13 May 88 10:19 EDT From: Cliff Joslyn <vu0112@bingvaxu.cc.binghamton.edu> Organization: SUNY Binghamton, NY Subject: Alternative to Probability (was Re: this is philosophy ??!!?) References: <1588@pt.cs.cmu.edu> Sender: ailist-request@ai.ai.mit.edu To: ailist@ai.ai.mit.edu In article <5459@venera.isi.edu> Stephen Smoliar writes: >We DEFINITELY need abstractions better than such logical constructs to >deal with issues such as uncertainty and belief, but it is most unclear >that probability theory is going to provide those abstractions. More >likely, we should be investigating the shortcomings of natural deduction >as a set of rules which represent the control of reasoning and consider, >instead, possibilities of alternative rules, as well as the possibility >that there is no one rule set which is used universally but that >different sets of rules are engaged under different circumstances. Absolutely right. Furthermore, such a theory exists: Fuzzy Systems Theory. Over the past fifteen years, through the work of Zadeh, Prade, Dubois, Shafer, Gaines, Baldwin, Klir, and many others, we now understand that probability measures in particular are a very special case of Fuzzy Measures in general. Belief, Plausibility, Possibility, Necessity, and Basic Probability Measures all provide alternative, and very powerful, formalisms for representing uncertainty and indeterminism. The traditional concept of 'information' itself is also recognized as a special case. Other formalisms include measures of Fuzziness, Uncertainty, Dissonance, Confusion, and Nonspecificity. These methods are having a very wide impact in AI, especially with regards to the representation of uncertainty in artificial reasoning. Primary references: Klir, George, _Fuzzy Sets, Uncertainty, and Information_, Prentice Hall, 1988, Prentice Hall. Dubois, D., Prade, H. _Fuzzy Sets and Systems: Theory and Applications_, 1980, Academic. Shafer, G., _A Mathematical Theory of Evidence_, 1976, Princeton. Zadeh, L.A. "The Role of Fuzzy Logic in the Management of Uncertainty in Expert Systems," in Gupta MM et. al., _Approximatte Reasoning in Expert Systems_, 1985, U Cal Berkley. Journals: _Fuzzy Sets and Systems_ _International J. of Approximate Reasoning_ _International J. of Man-Machine Studies_ _Information Science_ _International J. of General Systems_ -- O----------------------------------------------------------------------> | Cliff Joslyn, Cybernetician at Large | Systems Science, SUNY Binghamton, vu0112@bingvaxu.cc.binghamton.edu V All the world is biscuit shaped. . .